Joseph George Caldwell’s Predictions for 2010

 

© 2009 Joseph George Caldwell.  All rights reserved.  Posted at Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org .  May be copied or reposted for non-commercial use, with attribution.  (13 November 2009)

 

Every year, there are numerous predictions of what might happen during the year.  Most of those are “unconditional” predictions – they are not contingent on the occurrence of other events.  Most predictions of rare or unexpected or unusual events that have dates associated with them will fail to materialize.

 

Here are my “predictions” for 2010.  They are all presented as “subjective probabilities” (similar in concept to the Doomsday Clock of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists).  Since the likelihood (probability) of many of them is highly contingent on the event of global nuclear war (GNW), I present them in three ways: (1) the probability of the event conditional on no global nuclear war (in 2010); (2) the probability of the event conditional on global nuclear war (in 2010); and (3) the unconditional probability of the event.  The third probability – the unconditional probability – is simply the “weighted average” of the two conditional probabilities, where the weights are the probabilities of the conditioning events (no GNW or GNW).  In mathematical notation:

 

Prob(E) = Prob(E | no GNW) Prob(no GNW) + Prob(E | GNW) Prob(GNW),

 

where “E” denotes the event.

 

In the table, “GNW” stands for “global nuclear war,” “Prob.” stands for “probability” and “cond.” stands for “conditional.”  If a probability is very small, it is assigned a value of zero, even though it is positive.

 

If you place any faith in my subjective probabilities, then the significant implications of the following table are clear: (1) If you want to survive for another year, pray that global nuclear war does not occur; and (2) If you want to end mass extinction and the destruction of the biosphere, pray for global nuclear war.

 

If you don’t like my predictions, substitute your own subjective probabilities in the table, recalculate the unconditional probabilities, and see what you get.

 

This year’s predictions have changed somewhat from last year.  The change is due to my opinion about the passing of Hubbert’s Peak and the probability of global nuclear war.  Hubbert’s Peak is the point in time after which the average (locally smoothed, LOESS, LOWESS) global oil production declines (the exact timing of the passing of Hubbert’s Peak is uncertain for some time after the event, since it is a weighted average and since it depends on future global annual oil production values). It appears to me today, substantially more strongly than a year ago, that we have now passed Hubbert’s Peak.  Hence I have increased the probability that we have passed Hubbert’s Peak from .5 to .6.  The probability of global nuclear war depends on this probability – or more likely, on the perception that we have passed Hubbert’s Peak – and I have raised the probability of global nuclear war from .1 to .6.  This is a substantial increase since it is my view that the perception that we have passed Hubbert’s Peak has increased substantially in the past year: a number of oil “watchers” are now opining that Hubbert’s Peak has passed – perhaps last year or the year before.  It is interesting to note that, because of the substantial year-to-year fluctuations in global oil production, the perception that Hubbert’s Peak has passed is perhaps more important (in affecting the likelihood of global nuclear war) at the present time than the actual event itself.

 

Note that my predictions are based solely on consideration of facts and logical reasoning.  They are my opinions based on facts, logical deduction and statistical inference.  They have nothing to do with any religious or spiritual views.  Simply put, the global industrial world is about to collapse because global oil production is about to decline.  The world’s massive human population has been made possible by the availability of massive amounts of oil, and as global oil production starts to decline – as is happening now – the global industrial system that depends on it will collapse, and human population will decline to pre-petroleum levels.

 

From an individual perspective, the significant change from last year’s predictions is that the likelihood of survival has fallen substantially, from .81 last year to .36 this year.  Residents of Planet Earth should feel unsafe – very unsafe.

 

 

 

Event (to occur in 2010)

Probability of event, conditional on no global nuclear war (GNW)

Prob. of no GNW

Prob. of event, cond. on GNW

Prob. of GNW

Unconditional prob. of event

1

Global nuclear war (GNW)

0

0.4

1

0.6

0.6

2

Major breakdown in the planet's ecosystem

0.1

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.39

3

Collapse of the biosphere

0

0.4

0

0.6

0

4

Death of the biosphere

0

0.4

0

0.6

0

5

End of the sixth mass species extinction

0.1

0.4

1

0.6

0.64

6

Precipitous drop in human population

0.1

0.4

1

0.6

0.64

7

Extinction of mankind

0

0.4

0.01

0.6

0.006

8

Collapse of global industrial society

0.1

0.4

1

0.6

0.64

9

Collapse of the global financial system

0.1

0.4

1

0.6

0.64

10

Establishment of a "New World Order" (global synarchy)

0.1

0.4

0.3

0.6

0.22

11

Revolution in the USA

0.1

0.4

1

0.6

0.64

12

Assassination of a prominent political figure

0.5

0.4

1

0.6

0.8

13

Passing of Hubbert's Peak

0.5

0.4

1

0.6

0.8

14

End of massive use of fossil fuels

0.1

0.4

1

0.6

0.64

15

Major new disease

0.1

0.4

0

0.6

0.04

16

World-wide famine

0.1

0.4

1

0.6

0.64

17

Volcanic winter

0

0.4

0

0.6

0

18

Nuclear winter

0.1

0.4

0.1

0.6

0.1

19

New ice age

0.1

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.39

20

Global flooding (sea rise of 10 meters)

0.1

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.39

21

Any major geological event

0.2

0.4

0.7

0.6

0. 5

22

Islamist nuclear bomb on a Western city

0.1

0.4

0

0.6

0.04

23

Islamist nuclear bomb on Jerusalem

0.1

0.4

0

0.6

0.04

24

Israeli nuclear bomb on Tehran

0.1

0.4

1

0.6

0.64

25

Nuclear war between India and Pakistan

0.2

0.4

1

0.6

0.68

26

Nuclear war between USA, Russia and China

0.3

0.4

1

0.6

0.72

27

Nuclear bomb on any city

0.3

0.4

1

0.6

0.72

28

Nuclear bombs on Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo

0.2

0.4

1

0.6

0.68

29

Nuclear bomb on Rome

0.1

0.4

1

0.6

0.64

30

Nuclear bomb on a major dam (e.g., Aswan, Boulder, Volta)

0.1

0.4

1

0.6

0.64

31

Destruction of the Washington Monument

0.5

0.4

1

0.6

0.8

32

Torpedoing of a large cruise ship

0.5

0.4

0

0.6

0.2

33

Major asteroid hit

0

0.4

0

0.6

0

34

Planetary spiritual awakening

0

0.4

1

0.6

0.6

35

Coming of the Messiah

0

0.4

0.5

0.1

0.3

36

You will survive

0.9

0.4

0

0.1

0.36

37

Your grandchildren will survive

0.9

0.4

0

0.1

0.36