Miscellany19: The Last Great War; What Are the Islamists Waiting For?; The Mohammed Cartoons
© 2006 Joseph George Caldwell. All
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Commentary on recent news, reading and events of personal interest.
When I was younger, I read that the last great war before the end of industrial civilization would be between the Christians and the Moslems. I see no reason to believe that this will not happen.
Much has been written about the last war. The literature is as old as the books of Daniel and Revelation in the Bible, and it includes much more recent material. (The single best book that I have read on end times is Apocalypse (Penguin, 1931), by D. H. Lawrence (of Lady Chatterly’s Lover fame).)
The large body of
literature on the last war, and its various sources, are not, however, the
reason for my speculation that it will be a war between Christians and
Moslems. As I have observed a number of
times, my views about the Apocalypse are derived from logic, not from
revelation. I believe that the
industrial world will collapse in catastrophic war for many reasons, including:
(1) catastrophe theory, which suggests that dynamic systems tend to end with a
bang, not with a whimper (Jay Forrester’s System Dynamics models exhibit the
same “crash-and-burn” behavior); (2) the human carrying capacity of the planet
has been far exceeded, and human population cannot remain in this unstable
condition for very long, since global oil production, which has enabled the
human population explosion, is about to decline (the “overshoot and collapse”
behavior of most biological populations not in equilibrium with their
environment); (3) as soon as global oil production starts to decline (this
year? last year? next year?) great stress will occur among nations, as they
compete for the diminishing supply of oil; these nations will not simply sit
down and starve to death – they will fight to the death to survive (survival,
as H. Ron Hubbard has noted, is the strongest human dynamic); (4) human beings
love to fight in mortal combat; they view it with fascination, as, with love,
one of the greatest human experiences; if too much time passes, they grow
restless, and will look for reasons to go to war – human beings were designed
for conquest. The final global war will
occur very soon, since the growth of human population and industrial activity
has been explosive, and explosions do not last very long. (Read Jared Diamond’s book, Collapse (Viking/Penguin, 2005) for a
realistic assessment of what is happening (and see his book, Guns Germs and Steel (Norton, 1997,
1999) to see how we got where we are).
Read Lester R. Brown’s book, Plan
B 2.0 (Norton, 2006) for more information of the current state of the
planet. See Hubbert’s Peak by Kenneth S. Deffeyes (Princeton University Press,
2001) for discussion of the imminent decline in global oil production. See Barbara Ehrenreich’s book, Blood Rites (Metropolitan Books / Holt,
1996) for discussion of man’s love of war.
See Food, Energy, and Society,
revised edition, by David Pimentel and Marcia Pimentel, Editors (University
Press of Colorado, 1979, 1996) for discussion of earth’s solar-energy
resources. See Overshoot: The Ecological Basis of Revolutionary Change by William
R. Catton, Jr. for discussion of the “overshoot and collapse” phenomenon. Other references include: The Last Hours of Ancient Sunlight, by
Thom Hartmann (Three Rivers Press, 1998), The
Party’s Over by Richard Heinberg (New Society Publishers, 2003), The Collapse of Complex Societies, by
Joseph A. Tainter (Cambridge University Press, 1988), Environment, Scarcity, and Violence by Thomas F. Homer-Dixon
(Princeton University Press, 1999).
Australians will enjoy Among the
Barbarians by Paul Sheehan (Random House Australia, 1998) and This Tired Brown Land by Mark O’Connor
(Duffy & Snellgrove, 1998). Se also Slouching towards
Who will win the last war? Who knows? Perhaps the human race will exterminate itself. I believe, however, that it will survive, and I have written much on the planetary management system (synarchy, minimal-regret population) that I believe should be set up – and will be set up – in the wake of the collapse of the current system of global industrialization, if long-term sustainability of the human species in a biologically diverse planet is to be achieved.
It is my opinion
that the last great war will be between Christianity and Islam, because, when
people are looking for an excuse to go to war, they look for differences to
justify their decision, and religion, with its basis in spirituality, faith,
belief, subjectivity, irrationality, revelation and transcendental / mystical
experience, is the most profound of all human differences, apart from sex). Christianity and Islam are the two largest
religions, representing perhaps half the world’s population, and so it is
reasonable that the last great war will be between Islam and Christianity. More specifically, it is my view that the war
will be between Roman Catholicism and Islam.
Protestantism is very fragmented, split into many sects. Roman Catholicism is unified. The current Pope (Pope Benedict XVI, Joseph Ratzinger)
is a German (
Who will win? Will it be the Christians (Catholics) or the
Moslems? I believe that it will be
neither. My view is that they will
destroy each other. I believe that
global industrial civilization will be destroyed, and that a new system of
rational, sustainable planetary management (a synarchic government of a
minimal-regret population) will emerge out of its ashes. This
industrial world runs on oil. The Moslem
world owns most of it, and the Christian world uses most of it. The Moslem world is not economically
developed, and so, despite its oil riches, it is largely impoverished. The West is exploiting the Islam/Arab world’s
oil just as it exploited the material riches of all of the rest of the world in
colonial times. This is simply a neocolonial
time. The Moslems/Arabs sell the raw
material – the crude oil – to the West, and the West derives all of the
additional “value added.” And the Arabs
remain miserably poor (as in our system, the wealthy plutocrats keep all of the
money from the sale of the oil – the income distribution in the Arab world is
in fact far more extreme than in the West.)
(Note: My characterization of global oil as being controlled by
Moslems/Arabs is oversimplified. There
are, of course, other major sources of oil, including
As global oil
production starts to decline – and this is happening right now (last year, or
this year, or next year) – the industrial world will engage in intense
competition for the declining supply.
Initially, the capitalist law of supply and demand will push oil prices
up (already at $60 per barrel, compared to $10 a few years ago). But eventually, it will not be able to
allocate the ever-shrinking supply based on price – there will simply not be
enough, at any price, to satisfy demand.
At that time, wars will break out.
As usual, the US
will not simply and blatantly destroy China and India and other competitors for
oil – it will attack them on “trumped-up” charges, such as was done in
Iraq. Christianity and Islam are
religions – they do not possess armies.
They do not do the actual fighting.
The actual fighting is done through pawns, such as the
The only thing that will change this picture is for the Moslems to realize what is happening – that the West is going to reduce demand by gradually eliminating population in the rest of the world, and that they are always going to remain miserably poor, with the West fueling its high material standard of living with the use of the oil and their leaders becoming fabulously rich from the sale of their birthright oil. If Moslem leaders could have maintained control of their people, this strategy would have worked until all of the world’s oil was gone (unwisely, world leaders have let the “rabble” have weapons, and anarchy will prevail). But this scenario is simply a representation of the “politics of greed,” and it is the “politics of envy” that will in fact determine the outcome. The miserably poor Moslems will have many recruits for terrorism against the West, and they will eventually possess nuclear weapons. At that time, they must decide whether to use the nuclear bombs on Western cities, or on their own oil wells (which are the source of the West’s oil, and its jugular vein).
If they are
irrational, they will use their paltry supply of nuclear bombs to nuke a few
Western cities, such as
The “end game” of the industrial world will happen very quickly. Oil supplies could last until 2050, at current consumption rates. But the last great war will not wait until 2050. People will not sit around and starve to death. The last great war will start as soon as global oil production starts to decline noticeably. And that is in a very few years. By 2012, when the Aztec Calendar ends? Who knows.
To date, the Islamist terrorists have been playing into the
hands of the capitalists that control the world. Roadside bombs in
The only thing that will destroy the West (before it dies anyway as global oil runs out) is to destroy its sources of energy. To do this effectively will require the detonation of nuclear weapons on major energy sources – oil fields, coal fields, and hydroelectric dams. Now that the West, in its desperate bid for an energy replacement for the declining petroleum supplies, has decided to build nuclear reprocessing facilities (and, perhaps, fast-breeder reactors), terrorists will soon have improved access to much plutonium for nuclear bombs. It is just a matter of time until they have nuclear weapons and are able to destroy the world’s major oil fields. This situation, in which the problem produces its own solution – sows the seeds of its own destruction, is reminiscent of Marx’s “thesis – antithesis – synthesis” concept.
The Islamic terrorists have nothing to lose by destroying Islamic oil fields. Their leaders sell the oil and keep the money for themselves. It is only the Western Christians and the Moslem leaders who derive benefit from the oil. The Moslem elite enjoy a fabulous lifestyle from the sale of oil to the West, and the West uses the oil to support a fabulous materialistic lifestyle. The average Moslem will remain poor, throughout the remainder of the Petroleum Age, no matter how long it lasts. The politics of envy will drive Islamist terrorists to destroy Islamic oil fields, since it will deny both their own plutocrats and ours the wealth that they crave.
The work ethic of Christianity was a perfect match for economic / capitalist development in the West. Despite George Bush’s assertions to the contrary, Islam is deeply opposed to Christianity. Christianity and Islam will be the main protagonists in the global war that will follow the decline in global oil production. Christianity and Islam are very similar religions – they both stem from Abraham. But it is said that we reserve our strongest vitriol for our closest allies.
A few months ago, a
Danish newspaper published some cartoons including caricatures of the Islamic
Prophet Mohammed. Moslems do not want to
see the Prophet caricatured, and there has been quite a response to the
cartoons. Here is a blog from
Demonstrations in Pakistan have escalated into death threats against Danish illustrators who drew pictures of the prophet Mohammed
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has warned Danish
Daily newspaper Jyllands-Posten published twelve cartoon
drawings of Mohammed in September, sparking angry reactions from
A bounty of DKK 50,000 had been put on the head the cartoonist responsible for the drawings, daily newspaper Berlingske Tidende reported on Friday. The Pakistani group offering the reward mistakenly believes that the 12 cartoons were created by just one person.
Danish Ambassador to Pakistan Bent Wigotski said the bounty had been promised by religious party Jamaat-e-Islami and its youth organisation, which had also demanded Danish representatives expelled from the country.
[End of blog.]
follows a Yahoo news article posted on
Cleric: $1 million to Kill Cartoonist, by Riaz Khan
A Pakistani cleric announced Friday a $1 million bounty for
killing a cartoonist who drew Prophet Muhammad, as thousands joined street
Police confined the former leader of an Islamic militant group to his home to prevent him from addressing supporters over the cartoons, amid fears he could incite violence, after riots this week killed five people.
Security forces were out in strength, particularly around government offices and Western businesses, as Muslims streamed onto the streets after Friday prayers. More than 200 people were detained, but most gatherings were peaceful.
In the northwestern
Qureshi said the mosque and his religious school would give $25,000 and a car, while a local jewelers' association would give another $1 million. No representative of the association was available to confirm it had made the offer.
"This is a unanimous decision by all imams (prayer leaders) of Islam that whoever insults the prophet deserves to be killed and whoever will take this insulting man to his end, will get this prize," Qureshi said.
Qureshi did not name any cartoonist in his announcement. He did not appear aware that 12 different people had drawn the pictures.
A Danish newspaper, Jyllands-Posten, first printed the
prophet pictures by 12 cartoonists in September. The newspaper has since
apologized to Muslims for the cartoons, one of them showing Muhammad wearing a
bomb-shaped turban with an ignited fuse. Other Western newspapers, mostly in
"I can tell you, most people in the
"We have decided to do so because of the general security situation in the country," Foreign Ministry spokesman Lars Thuesen said.
Unrest over the cartoons has spiraled in
Intelligence officials have said scores of members of
radical and militant Islamic groups, such as Jamaat al-Dawat, joined the unruly
On Friday, police confined Jamaat al-Dawat's leader, Hafiz
Mohammed Saeed, to his home in
Saeed used to lead Lashkar-e-Tayyaba, a militant group closely associated with Jamaat al-Dawat and banned by Musharraf four years ago.
A senior police official in Lahore who confirmed Saeed's detention said the government had ordered police to restrict the movement of all religious leaders who might address rallies and to round up religious activists "who could be any threat to law and order."
The official spoke on condition of anonymity as he wasn't authorized to discuss the matter with media because of its sensitivity.
Police used tear gas and batons in isolated incidents at
Friday's protests, but generally they were free of violence. About 7,000
[End of Yahoo article.]
The online encyclopedia, Widipedia, has a detailed description of the cartoon controversy.
American newspapers have dared to reprint the cartoons, for fear of reprisals
from Moslems. This reaction shows how
low American culture has sunk. It is not
just cowardice that has motivated this response, but a realization that it may
cause monetary damage. Americans do not
protest when an image of Christ is soaked in urine, or a crucifix in excrement,
selling its soul to Mammon, the
It is interesting to compare the reaction of Russian youth to immigration and the reaction of American youth to immigration. American youth are simply standing by, watching as their environment, nation, and lifestyle are robbed from them by mass immigration and mass international free trade. Here follows an example of the response of Russian youth to immigration.
Foreigners live in fear of Russian skinheads, by Oliver Bullough (copyright 2006 Reuters, Yahoo) Wed Feb 15,
Simon Samba Samba, the Cameroon Embassy's second secretary, says he always advises new arrivals not to walk around on their own and to avoid places where skinheads hunt foreigners.
"When people came here to study in communist times, it was not like this. But now people are poor and drunk. Maybe they are not happy and they attack our lads on the street," he said.
A series of random racist murders, like that of 28-year-old
Leon late last year and other foreign students in
Last month, a man shouting "Heil Hitler" wounded
eight people in a knife attack on a
President Vladimir Putin has responded by calling racism an "infection" and ordered police to take steps to crush it. But experts say its roots are deep in demoralized post-Soviet society and will not be easy to pull out.
The skinheads, they say, are like a mixture of neo-Nazis
and soccer hooligans grafted onto the casual racism that the
"Our ideology is racism above all. We don't like Tajiks, Armenians, Jews -- we don't like anyone of a different race," said one self-declared skinhead in an interview with Reuters.
The man calls himself Tesak (machete) -- "because I like knives" -- and wears big black boots and a short, padded jacket.
"At the moment in
His group Format 18 -- the numbers one and eight represent the initials of Adolf Hitler -- posts videos of its attacks on its Web site. One clip shows a group of young, muscular men in their uniform of jeans and boots beating a Tajik trader in a market before it ends with the slogan of "White Power."
Most Russians strongly disapprove of such assaults, but opinion polls suggest passive racism is widespread.
Foreign visitors to
Late last year, polling firm
Some political groups have flirted with racism, and the
Rodina (Motherland) party was barred from
A demonstration organized by the Movement Against Illegal
Immigration (DPNI) in November saw around 5,000 marching under banners of
Protests arranged by pro-Western liberals would be lucky to attract a tenth of that number.
"We have lived here for thousands of years, and why should we share what is ours with people who have only just arrived," said DPNI spokesman Alexander Belov.
"White migration has always brought progress, but you
can not call what is happening now progress -- millions of immigrants from
There are no precise figures for the level of immigration
Tajiks, Uzbeks, Armenians and Azeris are often highly visible since they work as taxi drivers or in markets.
Many young Africans and Asians come to study in Russian
universities, which offer a high-quality education relatively cheaply.
Economists say immigration is necessary to offset the
Tesak's shaved head and clothes makes him look like an extremist on society's fringe, but he is a qualified engineer and not as easily sidelined as drunken soccer hooligans.
"Tesak is the future of the skinhead movement. He is clever and confident, he doesn't take drugs or drink. You can only kill him, you can never make him abandon his ideas," said Sergei Belikov, a lawyer who works with skinheads and has written three books on the phenomenon.
"This is becoming a middle class movement ... It has become a national idea when nothing else is left. Teachers have become market traders, doctors have become bums, but they can all say at least they are white and European."
Parliament promises new laws that would, among other
things, make Web sites like Tesak's illegal. But
"We do not think the government is doing enough. If
someone is killed, the culprit must be found and convicted ... they have still
not found (
Until more of an effort is made, Belikov said even the
"Basically, I would advise Africans and Asians not to
[End of Yahoo article.]
contrast between the response of Russian youth to mass immigration in