POPULATION ANALYSIS Country: RUSSIAN FED Historical data: Population (1965): Population (1970): Population (1975): Population (1980): Population (1985): Population (1990): Population (1995): 148141000. Population (2000): 145612000. Population (2005): 142147530. Total fertility rate (2003): 1.2800 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent): -0.4483 Energy consumption (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003): 4249. Land area (2003, hectares): 1688850000. Arable land area (2003, hectares): 123860000. Number of plant species (1994): Number of cities of population 100,000 or more (or capital) (1993): 166 City population (1993): 71401000. Projected population if current regional demographic trends continued, no major disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there were no resource constraints (energy, water, food, land): Population (2010): 140198316. Population (2015): 139496822. Population (2020): 139744760. Population (2025): 140729910. Population (2030): 142298263. Population (2035): 144336258. Population (2040): 146759118. Population (2045): 149502965. Population (2050): 152519365. Population (2055): 155771460. Population (2060): 159231176. A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 14.0 billion): 1238600000. B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding to global pop. of 1.40 billion): 123860000. C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 500 million): 44186541. D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 441865. E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp. to global pop. of 300 million): 26511925. F: Sustainable hunter-gatherer population (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp. to global pop. of 5 million): 441865. G. Minimal-regret population: 441865. SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case') Current demographic trends continue, no war or other major disasters. Population as in projection given above. SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now. Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040 and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050. SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production) occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves, poor countries have none. Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A), declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040 and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050. Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A), declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020, to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050. SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy in 2012: Number of cities: 166 City population: 71401000. Number of cities targeted: 166 City population destroyed: 71401000. Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010): 72625531. Low-ag.-productivity population (2011): 123860000. Minimal-regret population (2012): 441865. Cities targeted: All SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010 (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack), low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014 primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017), world government implements 'minimal-regret' population policy by 2020: Number of cities: 166 City population: 71401000. Number of cities targeted: 68 City population destroyed: 54362000. Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010): 88750973. Low-ag.-productivity population (2014): 123860000. Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017): 26511925. Minimal-regret population (2020): 441865. Cities targeted (1993 population in parentheses, in thousands): MOSKVA (8957), St. Petersburg (5004), Novosibirsk (1472), Nizhny Novgorod (1451), Ekaterinoburg (1413), Samara (Samarskaya ob.) (1271), Omsk (1193), Chelyabinsk (1170), Perm (1108), Kazan (1107), Ufa (1100), Volgograd (1031), Rostov-no-Donu (1027), Voronezh (958), Krasnoyarsk (925), Catapov (916), Krasnodar (751), Tolyatti (677), Simbirsk (676), Vladivostok (675), Barnaul (665), Izhevsk (651), Irkutsk (644), Yaroslav (637), Khabarovsk (626), Novokuznetsk (614), Tula (591), Orenburg (574), Kemerovo (559), Penza (553), Tyumen (550), Ryazan (533), Viyatk (Kirovskaya ob.) (525), Naberezhnye Tchelny (517), Astrakhan (512), Tomsk (506), Lipetsk (504), Bryansk (482), Ivanovo (480), Murmansk (468), Tver (460), Cheboksary (452), Magnitogorsk (442), Nizhny Tagil (437), Kursk (435), Arkhangelsk (421), Kaliningrad (Kaliningradskaya) (411), Sochi (395), Grozny (388), Ulan-Ude (384), Chita (377), Vladimir (377), Makhachkala (374), Kurgan (371), Kaluga (364), Smolensk (352), Sarnsk (350), Orel (347), Vladikavkaz (Osetinskaya ASSR) (341), Tambov (335), Stavropol (332), Komsomolsk-na-Amure (319), Cherepovets (317), Belgorod (314), Kostroma (302), Vologda (301), Dimitrovgrad (298), Taganrog (293) Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data. Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org. For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site. Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved. May be copied for personal and noncommercial use. Monday, Dec 5, 2005 10:02:52 AM