POPULATION ANALYSIS

Region: The World
Historical data:
 Population (1965):                               3043961000.
 Population (1970):                               3385193000.
 Population (1975):                               3743629000.
 Population (1980):                               4094860000.
 Population (1985):                               4472273000.
 Population (1990):                               4883574000.
 Population (1995):                               5674786000.
 Population (2000):                               6071021000.
 Population (2005):                               6450330176.

 Total fertility rate (2003):                     2.6761
 Annual growth rate, 2003 (percent):              1.1906
 Energy consumption (kilograms of
   oil equivalent per capita, or kgoepg, 2003):   1612.
 Land area (2003, hectares):                      13067015000.
 Arable land area (2003, hectares):               1401558000.
 Number of plant species (1994):                  726563
 Number of cities of population 100,000 or more
   (or capital) (1993):                           3365
 City population (1993):                          1622304000.

Projected population if current regional
  demographic trends continued, no major
  disasters (war, plague) occurred, and there
  were no resource constraints (energy, water,
  food, land):
 Population (2010):                               6806206036.
 Population (2015):                               7140003929.
 Population (2020):                               7454475162.
 Population (2025):                               7752812084.
 Population (2030):                               8038245927.
 Population (2035):                               8313815968.
 Population (2040):                               8582255464.
 Population (2045):                               8845951844.
 Population (2050):                               9106950639.
 Population (2055):                               9366982702.
 Population (2060):                               9627501762.

A. Max. high-agricultural-productivity population
  (10 persons/hectare of arable land, corresponding
  to global pop. of 14.0 billion):                14015580000.
B. Max. low-agricultural-productivity population
  (1 person/hectare of arable land, corresponding
  to global pop. of 1.40 billion):                1401558000.
C. Max. solar-energy population, low level of living
  (.35674585 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp.
  to global pop. of 500 million):                 500000000.
D. Max. solar-energy population, high level of
  living (.0035674585 persons/hectare of arable land,
  corresp. to global pop. of 5 million):          5000000.
E. Sustainable primitive-agricultural population
  (.21404751 persons/hectare of arable land, corresp.
  to global pop. of 300 million):                 300000000.
F. Sustainable hunter-gatherer population
  (.0035674585 persons/hectare of land, corresp.
  to global pop. of 5 million):                   5000000.
G. Minimal-regret population:                     10000000.

SCENARIO 1: Unconstrained Growth (unrealistic 'base case')
  Current demographic trends continue,
  no war or other major disasters.
Population as in projection given above.

SCENARIO 2: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production)
  occurs around 2010, all countries share the declining oil as now.
Population as in projection above until 2010 (A),
  declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (B) in 2040
  and to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2050.

SCENARIO 3: Hubbert's Peak (decline in global oil production)
  occurs around 2010, rich countries keep oil for themselves,
  poor countries have none.
Rich countries: Population as in projection above until 2030 (A),
  declining to Maximum-Solar-Energy-Low-Level-of-Living level (D) in 2040
  and to Maximum-Solar-Energy-High-Level-of-Living level (E) in 2050.
Poor countries: Population as in projection above until 2010 (A),
  declining to Low-Productivity-Agriculture level (D) in 2020,
  to Primitive-Agriculture level (C) in 2040,and to
  Hunter-Gatherer level (F) in 2050.

SCENARIO 4: Large-scale global nuclear war in 2010
  (3,385 weapons, all cities attacked),
  world government implements 'minimal-regret'
  population policy in 2012:
 Number of cities:                                3365
 City population:                                 1622304000.
 Number of cities targeted:                       3365
 City population destroyed:                       1622304000.
 Pop. surviving large-scale global war (2010):    4933243976.
 Low-ag.-productivity population (2011):          1401558000.
 Minimal-regret population (2012):                10000000.
 Cities targeted: All

SCENARIO 5: Medium-scale global nuclear war in 2010
  (1,000 weapons, 'green' attack),
  low-agricultural-productivity pop. by 2014
  primitive-ag.-prod. population by 2017),
  world government implements 'minimal-regret'
  population policy by 2020:
 Number of cities:                                3365
 City population:                                 1622304000.
 Number of cities targeted:                       995
 City population destroyed:                       1167120000.
 Pop. surviving medium-scale global war (2010):   5461879394.
 Low-ag.-productivity population (2014):          1401558000.
 Primitive-ag.-productivity population (2017):    300000000.
 Minimal-regret population (2020):                10000000.
 Cities targeted: Largest 1000.

Source: Joseph George Caldwell, based on World Bank and UN data.
Downloaded from Internet web site http://www.foundationwebsite.org.
For information on methodology, see the book, Can America Survive? at that web site.
Copyright (c) 2000, 2005 Joseph George Caldwell.  All rights reserved.
May be copied for personal and noncommercial use.
Monday, Dec 5, 2005                       9:59:00 AM