Joel Cane and his team were in Belleville, Ontario, Canada, just after hearing of the outbreak of global nuclear war. Joel was head of the technology development company that designed the world first global system of small modular nuclear-power reactors, or SMRs, that generated electric and thermal power at locations around the world. His team also designed the system of survival pods that were intended to assure the continuity of technological civilization in the event of a global catastrophe, such as the global nuclear war that was now in progress.

Joel’s team consisted of four of the top managers of his company. It included Yvonne Lim, Administrator and Chief of Operations; Rani Singh, Director of Human Resources; Jack Barnes, Director of Engineering; and Roger Wilson, Director of Planning / Chief Strategist. The project to design the global SMR and survival-pod systems that Joel and his team had designed was funded and implemented by Viktor Petrovitch Romanov, President of Russia.

Joel and the President of Russia had worked closely on the development of the global SMR and survival-pod system, and spoke regularly by telephone, on a first-name basis. A few weeks earlier, Viktor had contacted Joel and asked him to come to Belleville with his team, for discussions of a very important new project. One of the reasons why Viktor suggested Belleville, apart from its proximity to Ottawa and the Russian Embassy in Canada, was that Joel had spoken more than once of his uncle, George, who lived in Belleville, and he knew that Joel would be interested in that particular location.

Viktor expressed regret that he was not at liberty to discuss the nature of the project, except to say that its importance far exceeded the work that they had done to date. He indicated that the discussions would take at least a week, and he recommended very strongly that Joel request his team members to have their immediate family members join them. They could sightsee the Belleville area while Joel and his directors were in meetings. Viktor stressed the importance of bringing family. Joel was a little surprised at Viktor’s insistence, but he trusted Viktor’s judgment. If Viktor felt strongly about this then he would do it.

The upshot of Viktor’s telephone call was that Joel, his team, and their families were now in Belleville, at the onset of global nuclear war. Joel and his team were in a meeting with the Russian Ambassador when the war broke out. The Ambassador informed Joel and his team that Russia initiated the war. After a brief discussion of what was happening, the Ambassador called for a short adjournment of the meeting, so that the team could meet with their families, tell them what was happening, and assure them that they were in as safe a situation as possible.

While concern for their family members was the utmost priority for the team members, this story is not about them, and little mention of them will be provided in the narration that follows.

The Russian Ambassador was in close contact with the Russian National Defense Management Center. When the meeting reconvened, the Ambassador reported to Joel that Russia has prevailed in the war and that the US has been annihilated.

Joel and his team were, understandably, stunned and in shock at what has happened. They realized immediately that the reason why they were alive and safe in Canada was because Viktor wanted to extract them from the United States before the war began, but was not able for reasons of security to explain why he was doing it. While they were grateful to be alive and well, they were at the same time very uncertain about their safety. They were in fact working with the political power that had just initiated a massive war that had caused great damage to Canada. It was known to the hotel staff that Joel and his team were working with the Russians. Their position seemed very tenuous. They could be in great peril.

Second to their concern for their own safety, the team members were very anxious to know the status of their relatives, friends, and colleagues back in the US. There had evidently been a failure of the local power grid, for the grid power was still off and the hotel was operating on auxiliary power. For the time being, hotel guests could recharge their phones and computers, but no telephone service or Internet service was available. Without these services, they were not able to learn much. They confirmed from the Ambassador that the city in which their headquarters was located was not targeted, but no information was available about its status. In view of the massive destruction wrought on the US, it would be some time before they would know. There was nothing that they could do to change this. The reasonable course of action was to remain in place and continue to work with Viktor and the Ambassador.

Joel reflected on the fact that, with the US destroyed, his entire business enterprise and US-based wealth were now gone. Because of his business and personal ties to Canada, he had some assets here, including funds in a Canadian bank. He was by no means penniless, but, in an instant, his wealth had been dramatically reduced.

Viktor’s intention was for Joel and his team to develop a plan for rehabilitating the Great Plains of North America, 98 percent of which had been destroyed by industrial activity such as agriculture. Immediate discussions with the Ambassador cemented the agreement to work on the project that Viktor had identified.

After a week, the Canadians had still refused to capitulate to Russia. The reason for this was that they possessed some useful bargaining chips. Ottawa was not hit. The government was still intact. Canada was not a threat to Russia, and it was still an industrial power. It may be of use to Russia, and it may be to Russia’s benefit for the two countries to be on good terms, even though Russia was obviously the dominant power. Hence, there may be a sound basis for suing for peace on favorable terms, rather than submitting to unconditional surrender.

Joel and the Ambassador agreed that the team should remain in Belleville for the present, pending clarification of the situation. The Ambassador had been requested to return to Ottawa, and would depart soon. He put Joel in touch with Viktor, on a Russian military satellite phone.

Joel asked for confirmation from Viktor about the situation, and details about it. Viktor described the situation. There has been large-scale destruction of global industrial capacity.

Joel asked Viktor a number of questions. Did Russia start the war? Was the US annihilated, or just badly crippled? What is the status of Joel and his team, as US citizens in Canada talking to Russia, if it is perceived by the Canadians that Russia started the war?

Although Viktor admitted having made the first missile strike of the war, he denied that Russia started the war, claiming that other countries were destroying the biosphere on which Russian survival depends. In his mind, it was that deliberate and provocative action that started the war. Russia had been doing its part to stop the ecological destruction, and, through its global system of SMRs, had provided the other countries of the world with the means to do so as well, but they were continuing to do so on a grand scale. They were hell-bent on their own destruction and that of Russia. They provoked the war and rained destruction on themselves. The motivation of the war was to defend Russia.

Joel pointed out that because of the war, it was almost certain that he and his team members have lost close relatives and friends. He asked Viktor how they should feel about his role in that. Viktor expressed sincere regret. He wished that it could have been otherwise. Other countries were destroying the biosphere. Their relatives would have certainly perished, even if the war had not occurred.

Joel asked Viktor for more details on the war, and, in particular, how Russia fared. Viktor said that it was not productive to discuss details on the course of the war. Joel could see that the questioning was leading nowhere.

Joel asked about the safety of himself and his team. Viktor said that he would have the Russian Ambassador extend Russian diplomatic privileges to Joel and his team, but he did not want to do more than this at the present time because of the fluid situation with the Canadian government. Joel asked whether they might be arrested by the Canadians as enemy combatants or spies. What was known or believed by the Canadians about who started the war? Who attacked Canada? Did Russia attack the Canadian cities? Viktor replied that the situation was in a state of flux, and he could not reasonably answer these questions at the present time. He suggested sheltering in place until more is known about the situation relative to the relationship of Canada to Russia.

Viktor assured Joel that Russia and Canada were having reasonable discussions, that Russia obviously had the upper hand, and that Joel should not feel in danger from Canada.

Viktor confirmed the desire to have Joel and his team develop a plan to rehabilitate the Great Plains, or, as they are called in Canada, the Prairies. When the smoke cleared, Joel and his team would be granted Russian passports. At that time, the Canadian government would be informed of Joel’s project and requested to support it.

Joel said that he needed to know more about the context of the Great Plains rehabilitation project. What was the scope of the undertaking? What assets would be available to support it? What time frame? Viktor said that the situation was complicated because Canada had not capitulated, and he could not answer these questions in detail. As soon as the situation becomes clear, he would provide details.

Viktor said that he would arrange for Joel to be issued a satellite phone and have access, using the phone as a “hot spot,” to high-resolution satellite surveillance data, and to receive frequent summaries of the situation in North America. Joel would also be issued a manual electric generator and solar panel for electricity supply to the telephone and his computer, in case the hotel backup power failed.

At the end of the week, the Ambassador left for Ottawa.

Joel monitored the situation. The hotel started receiving information reports over emergency channels on commercial AM/FM radio and television. They confirmed what Viktor had told him. Jack Barnes, the Director of Engineering, had a shortwave radio set with him, and this supplemented the reports from the Canadian broadcast channels.

The overall situation was that the global industrial world had been severely crippled. The nuclear powers were severely damaged. It appeared that of the major powers, the only government that was still functional was Russia. The extent to which Russia was damaged was not known, but because of its preparations and its having struck first at a time of its choosing, the government and military were still functional.

As Viktor had said, major cities of Canada – Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton – were hit. Ottawa, Québec City and Winnipeg were not hit. Worldwide, it appeared that most metropolitan areas having population greater than one million people had been destroyed, that all major fossil-fuel assets (fossil-fuel fields, refineries) were destroyed, and that several large hydroelectric power plants were hit. The national electric power grids of most countries were inoperable. A substantial number of SMRs were still operable, but the Russian ones were deactivated by Russia at the start of the war. The shortwave radio facilities in the survival modules were still functional. Unlike Jack’s shortwave radio set, which could be used only for reception, those sets could be used for transmission as well.

Joel’s immediate reaction was that he and his team, as Americans in Canada, were very vulnerable. As foreign nationals in wartime, they could be arrested and interned. Worse, since they have been working with Russia, they could be charged as spies. Under wartime conditions, they could be summarily executed. All members of the team were traveling on US passports, and some Canadians may blame the US for the war. If food supplies got tight, Americans would get what was left after Canadians are fed. That was understandable.

Joel considered his options. If he and his team stayed at the hotel, they would be vulnerable. If they left Belleville, they would be vulnerable. What are the alternatives? Stay? Leave? Where would social structure break down first? In rural areas or in town? If they were in rural areas, they would need guns, which they did not have. If they camped along the Bay of Quinte, they could fish (the fish mercury-poison levels caused years ago the Eastman Kodak plant in Rochester, New York, are now low). How to get there? They would need transport. If they stayed in Belleville, where should they stay? The hotel? His Uncle George’s place? Yes! That might be the best option, at least for now.

The decision was made to consider a move to his uncle’s place, but first, a reconnaissance visit would be made to assess the situation there. There was food at the hotel, but it may be stolen, or it may run out, or they may not get it. Does George have food supplies? How much? Water? Weapons?

How long must they hold out? Just until the relationship between Canada and Russia became clear. That should be but a few days. If longer, they may have to head for a remote area. But where? George would probably know of a good place.

The telephones were out, so the only way to contact George was to proceed directly, unannounced. The federal government had declared martial law, but Belleville had not yet imposed any curfews. Joel made the trip to George’s home, on Alexander Street, alone. It was late in the evening, and very quiet. Joel was surprised at no evidence of looting. In US, the “animals” would have sprung at the opportunity to riot and loot in the postattack chaos.

The distance from the hotel, which is downtown, to George’s home was not great, perhaps a mile or so. Joel arrived at George’s without difficulty, in about twenty minutes. The lights were out. George knocked on the door, and, after a few moments, George answered. George was very pleased to see him. He had followed the events on a shortwave radio, and knew generally what is going on. He had not turned on the backup power generator, to save it for a real emergency. The shortwave radio ran on batteries, and he had lots of them.

Joel explained that he and his team felt safe at the hotel, and there was food, but they want to identify backup options in case the situation deteriorated. He asked George for his thoughts. George’s home was large, and could accommodate Joel’s team in terms of space. Food was a problem. He had a very substantial reserve of food and water for himself, one person, but it would not last Joel’s group for long.

George had several guns and a substantial amount of ammunition for them. They were rifles and shotguns, not handguns. George said that Joel and his team were welcome, but something would have to be done about the food situation. Joel asked about other potential refuges, including out-of-town ones. George said that there are plenty of places that he knew, including both cabins and camping spots. George had camping supplies sufficient for a couple of people, but not for a larger group. Overall, options outside the hotel appeared to be problematic. Joel decided to stay at hotel until food got low, or if there were signs that travel may become difficult, and keep George’s place or other places in reserve until relocation became necessary.

Joel was somewhat surprised at the number of guns and amount of ammunition that George possessed. He asked George about it. George summarized the Canadian firearms regulations.

People who wish to acquire firearms are required to obtain a firearms acquisition certificate (FAC) from their local police agency. All firearms owners are required to possess a firearms possession and acquisition license (PAL), which is issued by the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP). To obtain the license, it is required to successfully complete a firearms safety course and to pass security screening that includes background checks and interviews of references.

Firearms are classified as "non-restricted", "restricted" and "prohibited." The non-restricted class includes any rifle or shotgun that is neither restricted nor prohibited. Restricted firearms include some handguns and some semi-automatic firearms. Prohibited firearms include fully automatic firearms; some semi-automatic firearms not reasonably used for hunting; and most types of handguns.

Restricted and prohibited firearms must be registered. There are only a few permitted purposes for which individuals may be licensed to acquire or possess a restricted firearm: target shooting competitions; as part of a collection; use in connection with one’s lawful profession or occupation; or to protect life. Interestingly, self-defense is rarely ever considered a legitimate reason for possessing a gun. A person may acquire and store up to 225 kilograms of ammunition for use in a dwelling.

Joel returned to the hotel. He informed the team of the situation and his decision to stay at the hotel for as long as possible. The fact was, while his uncle did have some supplies, they would not last the team for long. As long as there was food available at the hotel, they should remain there. They concurred.

As information was released by Russia, Joel and his team quickly got a good picture of the result of the war and its immediate aftermath.

The Global Picture

The war involved the detonation of several hundred nuclear warheads on major industrial targets. Since major industrial targets tend to be located at or near large cities, and since most large cities include major industrial targets, most large cities were hit. Essentially, all cities of population over one million – about 500 – were hit.

Before any terrestrial targets were hit, a number of nuclear bombs were detonated in the upper atmosphere. These detonations induced high-altitude enhanced electromagnetic pulses, or super-EMPs, which disabled most artificial satellites circling the earth, and all national electric power grids. All major global communication and surveillance systems were disabled, and many smaller systems as well, making it very difficult for attacked nations to detect, assess, and respond to the attack. For all intents and purposes, the attacked nations were blind to the attack. The super-EMPs greatly reduced the effectiveness of defensive measures and countermeasures, and cleared the way for Russian ballistic missiles to reach targets. In addition to using ballistic missiles, Russia made substantial use of hypersonic cruise missiles, which were very effective in reaching their targets.

All of Russia’s weapon-delivery platforms were equipped with guidance systems, such as inertial guidance systems or terrain-following systems, that were not dependent on satellite communication. The annihilation of all satellite communication systems at the start of the war neutralized many enemy defensive systems, but it did not degrade the performance of Russia’s offensive weapons. What was not accomplished by the removal of the satellite systems was accomplished by the destruction to electronics caused by super-EMP and the ability of hypersonic cruise missiles to evade detection by enemy radar.

The war was essentially over in a few hours. As soon as detonations ceased, Russia launched several new surveillance and communication satellites and reestablished its ability to conduct global surveillance, communication and control. From this point on, with its space-based weapons, Russia was able to implement a “destroy on launch” defense system that could destroy any enemy-launched missiles during the boost phase.

The sea war went very well for Russia. Its powerful navy quickly dispatched enemy vessels, primarily by the use of hypersonic cruise missiles. Russia’s navy, with a history of three hundred and fifty years, did itself proud.

For reasons of security, Russia released no information about the extent to which it had received damage from the war. It quickly released information, however, about the level of damage sustained by all other countries. Russia was the sole potential source of global information, and it did not release any information about its own status. No information about Russia was available from any other source.

About a quarter of the world’s population, or about two billion people, lived in cities having population of one million or more. Most of those people were killed immediately by direct effects (blast and heat) of nuclear weapons, or died soon from direct-effect injuries. Within a week, perhaps another billion people were dead from radiation poisoning.

Although long-distance power grids were destroyed, many small-scale emergency-power systems survived. This can occur because EMPs are not very destructive over short lengths of wire, or if the system does not include microelectronics, or if the electronic components of the device are protected by a metal cover.

Most countries, seeing the direness of the situation, immediately confiscated all private power generators and severely limited their use.

In highly damaged countries, such as the US, the social situation was dire. Many cities had been destroyed. National electric power grids were not operational. With no power from a national grid, and with backup batteries soon drained and generators soon out of fuel, both civilian and military communications quickly disappeared. Most national governments collapsed. Substate governments lost control, and anarchy reigned.

Russia maintained contact with all nations via shortwave radio, such as those in the survival-system modules. Each module had been equipped not only with shortwave radios, but with satellite telephones connected to a Russian-government telephone network and with laptop computers connected to a Russian-government computer network. As soon as the new satellite system was operational, these systems were activated.

Russia immediately issued a proclamation asserting its dominion over the planet, and issued daily situation reports and other directives.

The Situation in Canada

The Russian Ambassador was diligent about informing Joel about the situation in Canada.

Although major Canadian cities were destroyed, the national capital, Ottawa, was not, and much of the country remained intact. The country had in place a good “disaster recovery” or “continuity of operations” plan, and moved quickly to affirm competence and authority of the federal government and the provincial governments.

The country’s national electrical grid was destroyed, but the transportation system – land, water and air – remained largely intact and operational. Fossil-fuel resources were gone, but there was much liquid fuel available from synfuel plants. It appeared that the country’s food system would continue at a level sufficient to provide basic sustenance for all survivors, and would continue operation much as before.

Immediately following the war, communications were maintained using military communication systems, civilian emergency communication systems, and shortwave radios. Following the alliance with Russia, satellite telephone service was established, via the Russian satellite network. With the national electric power grid gone, many places were without electricity, and were unable to recharge phones and computers. The government had stockpiled large quantities – millions – of solar chargers and hydrogen fuel-cell chargers.

Before the war, much hydrogen was produced from the electricity generated by hydroelectric power plants, especially for load-leveling in non-peak hours. With the national grid out, that source of hydrogen was no longer available. The government quickly restored a skeletal system to distribute the hydrogen still being produced at a number of SMRs equipped with a module for producing hydrogen. In short order, many communications and computer systems were quickly restored, nationwide.

With its strong interests in petroleum production using oil sands, the Canadian government was well aware of the looming end of the Petroleum Age. About 60 percent of Canada’s electrical power came from hydroelectric power plants; the other sources were nuclear 15 percent, coal 7 percent, non-hydro renewables 7 percent, and gas/oil/other 11 percent. Canada was always mindful of the vulnerability of the electrical power grid. To address this vulnerability, it had invested substantially in the use of hydrogen fuel cells to provide electrical power to industrial vehicles (such as warehouse forklifts), portable power systems, emergency power stations and other applications. With its strong capacity in hydroelectric and nuclear, it was in an excellent position to produce hydrogen for fuel cells.

Electrical vehicles that use batteries, such as Teslas, are dependent on a power grid, whether national or local, for recharging. Electric vehicles that use hydrogen fuel cells require the availability of hydrogen fuel stations. Prior to the war, in peacetime, Canada supported the full range of vehicle types, including internal combustion, electric-battery, and electric fuel-cell.

In recognition of the fact that neither the national power grid nor the network of hydrogen fuel stations would likely be operational in a post-attack setting, Canada’s plan for post-attack transportation was to rely on internal combustion engines, with the fuel supplied by synthetic fuel plants. The wisdom of that decision was now very apparent. Following the attack, most electric power grids were no longer operational, and so the recharging source for battery electric vehicles was available in only a few places. Most of the vehicles on roads were powered by internal combustion engines, not by batteries or fuel cells.

The National Electrical Grid

Prior to the war, SMRs had been placed at a number of locations. Some of these locations were remote locations that were not served by the national electric power grid. Others were connected to the national power grid, but were set up to continue operation if the national grid went down. At the beginning of the war, a number of nuclear bombs were detonated at high altitude in space to generate powerful nuclear electromagnetic pulses intended to destroy national electric power grids. In general, these high-altitude EMPs – actually, enhanced EMPs, or “super EMPs” – worked very well. In Canada, however, they were significantly less effective than in other locations. The national electric power grid was damaged, but not destroyed. Many of the SMRs were unaffected.

The reason for this is somewhat technical, having to do with the Earth’s magnetic field and the far northern location of Canada. The following information is from the US Army Report AD-A278230 (1994), Nuclear Environment Survivability. “The mechanism for a 400-kilometre-high (250 mi; 1,300,000 ft) burst EMP: gamma rays hit the atmosphere between 20–40 km (66,000–131,000 ft) altitude, ejecting electrons which are then deflected sideways by the Earth's magnetic field. This makes the electrons radiate EMP over a large area. Because of the curvature and downward tilt of Earth's magnetic field over the USA, the maximum EMP occurs south of the detonation and the minimum occurs to the north.” For more information about nuclear electromagnetic pulse, see the Wikipedia article on this topic.

The EMPs that were set off over North America were focused on the United States. Because of this, and because of the phenomenon that the maximum EMP occurs south of the detonation and the minimum occurs to the north, the damage caused to Canada’s electric power grids from nuclear EMP was low.

Even at a low level, however, the damage caused by EMP to a national electric power grid can be significant. Major weak links in the transmission system are the transformers. Transformers are used in electric power grids in two ways: step-up transformers convert the relatively low-voltage electricity generated by a power generating station to very high voltage for transmission over long distances; and step-down transformers to convert the high-voltage electricity to low voltage for use by the consumer, such as a factory or household. The transformers at the power generating station, called power transformers, are very large and very costly. The transformers at the user end of the transmission line are called distribution transformers. These are the barrel-sized pole-mounted cylindrical ones seen on power-line poles, or the pad-mounted boxes seen on the ground where underground distribution is used.

The reason why transformers are weak links is that they are filled with oil, which is used both for cooling and for insulation. The EMP induces a strong electric current in the transmission lines, and these strong currents cause the transformers to explode. While distribution transformers are relatively small, low-cost, numerous, readily available, and can be quickly replaced, power transformers are large, very expensive, few in number, not readily available, and not easily replaced. When power transformers are destroyed, the national grid is severely damaged, and repair can require a significant amount of time and resources. Large power transformers are not manufactured in many countries. In the post-attack world, they are a scarce resource, with replacements essentially unavailable.

After the attack, the situation in Canada was that the national power grid was out of commission, but a number of local electric power grids connected to SMRs were still operational.

In short, the loss of the national electrical grid was not a catastrophe for Canada. It was a substantial inconvenience, but not a debilitating one. With its capacity of non-grid sources such as the SMRs and hydrogen fuel cells, it was able to generate sufficient energy to maintain essential electricity services in most areas.

Other Energy Sources

Unlike most other industrial nations, Canada was not dependent on petroleum for energy, and it was not vitally dependent on an electrical power grid. Although it had lost all of its cities of population over one million, it survived as a functional nation, and was quite able to continue as before the war.

Before the war, the sources of energy differed substantially by region of the country. British Columbia, Manitoba, Québec, Newfoundland and Labrador, and Yukon each obtained over 80 percent of their electricity from hydroelectricity. Ontario, New Brunswick, and the Northwest Territories used various combinations of nuclear, hydro, wind, biomass, coal, natural gas, and petroleum, although not all provinces used all of these sources. Alberta, Saskatchewan, Nova Scotia, and Nunavut generated most of their electricity from fossil fuels (coal, natural gas, or petroleum).

Nuclear power plants operated only in Ontario and New Brunswick. The world’s largest uranium mine is located in northern Saskatchewan, but it has been shut down for some time because of weak global demand for uranium. The world’s largest uranium refinery is located in Ontario.

Synthetic Fuels

Ever since the early part of the Twentieth Century, countries had synthesized liquid and gaseous fuels and other hydrocarbon-based products from carbon-based raw materials, such as coal, wood or other biomass.

Coal liquefaction is a process of converting coal into liquid hydrocarbons. There are various processes by which this can be done, the best-known of which are the Bergius direct coal liquefaction process and the Fischer-Tropsch indirect coal liquefaction process, which converts a mixture of carbon monoxide and hydrogen or water gas into liquid hydrocarbons. The gaseous mixture is called syngas.

Syngas can be produced from many sources, including natural gas, coal, biomass, or other hydrocarbon feedstock. The name “synthesis gas,” or “syngas,” comes from its use in creating synthetic natural gas, ammonia and methanol. The main application of syngas is electricity generation. It is combustible and can be used as a fuel of internal combustion engines, although it has less than half the energy density of natural gas.

Synthetic fuel, or synfuel, is a liquid or gaseous fuel obtained from syngas.

Prior to the widespread use of electricity, many countries and municipalities produced liquid and gaseous synfuels. In the late nineteenth century, most municipalities had coal gasification plants to provide “town gas” for street lamps and a wide variety of appliances, including gas fires, gas cookers, refrigerators, washing machines, hand irons, pokers for lighting coal fires, gas-heated baths, gas lights and gas engines. The last large city coal gasification plant in the United States was located in Seattle, Washington. It operated from 1906 to 1956. Remnants of the plant are located at the Gas Works Park in Seattle.

The Great Plains Synfuels Plant near Beulah, North Dakota, has been producing synthetic natural gas (SNG) from lignite coal for 25 years and remains the only coal-to-SNG facility in the United States. A total of 16,000 tons per day of lignite are gasified in 14 large gasifiers, cylindrical pressure vessels measuring 40 feet high and 13 feet in diameter.

Despite the massive transition, worldwide, from synthetic gaseous and liquid fuels that followed mass electrification, Canada realized the importance of this technology in a post-attack context. It installed a number of synthetic fuel plants around the country, for backup use should gaseous and liquid fuels not be available from conventional sources.

As part of its program for disaster preparedness, Canada had constructed a number of synthetic fuel plants around the country. These plants were unaffected by the destruction of the former major energy sources of hydroelectric electric power and fossil fuels (natural gas, coal, oil-sands). Because of this preparation, with respect to the supply of fuel for motor vehicles, Canada was in excellent shape.

To produce synthetic fuel, such as diesel fuel or gasoline, synthetic fuel plants require a concentrated source of carbon, such as coal, oil sands, lignite, natural gas, biomass, or carbon dioxide captured from industrial processes such as coal-fired power plants. Theoretically, carbon dioxide could be extracted from the atmosphere, but that source is too dilute for practical purposes. For the feedstock for the synfuel plants, Canada’s approach was to use trees. Canada possessed massive forests. The consumption of trees in the catchment area of the synfuel plants was far less than the annual death rate of the trees, so that the process was sustainable, using only renewable resources, and carbon-neutral.

Overall Energy Picture: Very Good

With the national electric grid out, battery-charged electric vehicles were of little use, except in locations having SMRs. The hydrogen fuel-station network was substantially diminished, and used mainly to support specialized applications, such as forklifts in warehouses. There was little hydrogen available for road vehicles. In summary, most road vehicles in the post-attack period were powered by internal combustion engines using synthetic fuels, not by electric vehicles using batteries or fuel cells.

Postattack Summary: Canada Prepared Well, and Survived

To Joel, the rapidity with which Canada responded from the attack was mind-boggling. The country had prepared well for this contingency, and its preparations had paid off. Citizens were informed of the situation and of what had to be done, and they did it. By the end of the first week after the war had occurred, it was evident that, barring future attacks, Canada would continue as an industrial nation, quite as capably as before.

Work on the Plan

In the first week after the attack, Joel and his team spent most of their time assembling information about the situation in Canada. They obtained much information about the nature of industrial activity throughout Canada and the status of the Prairies. By the end of the week, they had a good picture of the present situation. In this short time, however, they were unable to spend time on identifying plans for accomplishing the rehabilitation of the Prairies.

At the end of the first week, Viktor contacted Joel. He asked Joel about his situation, and about the plan. Joel described the situation as he saw it, and asked Viktor what he knew about it. At present, Viktor assessed that Joel was safe, but there was little that he can do to provide security for Joel without attracting attention to Joel and his team, and he wished to avoid that at present.

Joel discussed his situation. Viktor said that Joel should maintain contact with the Ambassador. Contact with the Canadian government could complicate things, since the situation was new, evolving, and unstable. Viktor’s relationship to Joel was established and sound. The relationship with Canada was new, uncertain and fragile. Because of this uncertainty, Viktor did not want the Canadians to be aware of Joel’s plan or his activities for the present. He would prefer for them not to know of the relationship between Viktor and Joel. For now, it was agreed that Joel and his team would stay at the hotel, and work quietly. Joel informed Viktor of his back-up plan to go to his uncle’s home if staying at the hotel became problematic, but that the supplies there would last but a few days. Viktor would decide when it was appropriate to inform the Canadian government of his desire to implement the Great Plains / Prairies Restoration Project.

The discussion turned to the status of the plan. Joel stalled. He and his team had not done much. They had been primarily concerned with their personal situation and safety, and with collection of information, but not on development of a plan. Viktor emphasized that it is important to develop a plan right away. He explained that it may be necessary to take some actions that may affect the Great Plains project, and he wanted to be aware of what Joel has in mind. Joel agreed to work on it as fast as possible.

Chapter 2. Week 2: A Change in Plans

Within a week of the war, all countries except Canada had capitulated to Russia’s demands. One week after the war occurred, Canada and Russia formed an alliance. Russia was obviously the dominant partner of the alliance. Because of the alliance between Russia and Canada, Joel’s situation was much less tenuous.

On the day following the alliance between Russia and Canada, Viktor contacted Joel. He explained that the situation has changed dramatically. Initially, it was his plan that Russia would, in its capacity as the world’s major political power, directly control all aspects of establishing and operating a planetary management system. As a result of the war, however, Russia’s industrial capacity has been substantially diminished. It would have its hands full establishing the system in the Eastern Hemisphere. Since Canada’s industrial capacity was still strong, he wished to utilize that capacity in establishing the system in the Western Hemisphere. Moreover, he wanted Joel and his team to develop a plan for doing that. The task of rehabilitating the Great Plains was still on, but now a part of the larger task.

For a few moments, Joel was speechless. Viktor had just offered him the job of developing a planetary management system for almost half the planet! What could he do but agree? He agreed.

Viktor informed Joel that the Ambassador would describe Joel’s role in this new project to the Canadian government, and would request that he be given full cooperation.

Joel assembled his team. He told them of his commitment to develop a draft plan to develop a planetary management system for the Western Hemisphere within a week. They were stunned by the magnitude of the project, by their good fortune at being involved in it, and at the extremely short deadline for producing a plan. There was no question about their willingness to undertake the project.

The Ambassador contacted Joel. In view of the major expansion in scope of Joel’s project, and that implementing it would involve substantial interaction with the Canadian government, the Ambassador recommended that Joel and his team relocate to the Russian Embassy in Ottawa. Joel agreed. The Ambassador made arrangements for office space and living quarters for Joel and his team. A day later, Joel and his team were in the Embassy.

The Russian Embassy in Ottawa was located just north of Strathcona Park on the west side of the Rideau River. When Joel was young, his Uncle George had taken him ice-skating on the Rideau Canal, which runs from Kingston to Ottawa. In winter, a section of the Rideau Canal passing through central Ottawa becomes officially the world's largest and second-longest skating rink in the world. They stayed at the Château Laurier hotel.

Joel had pleasant memories of his time in Ottawa, and was pleased to be back. His uncle had taken him to several tourist attractions, such as the Parliament Buildings, the Canadian Museum of Nature, the Royal Canadian Mint and a locomotive museum.

In response to Viktor’s request for the Canadian government to support Joel’s project, the Canadian government set up a Planetary Management Task Force, to be headed by Joel, and having representatives from each of the government’s twenty ministries. As soon as the war began, the government had declared martial law. Joel was assured that, in this situation, whatever the Task Force decided would receive prompt attention.

Within two days, on Wednesday, Joel convened the first meeting of the Task Force. He presented the basic concept of planetary management, along the lines of E. O. Wilson and Rani Singh, and requested ideas for implementing these concepts in the context of the Eastern Hemisphere – North and South America – and Canada’s industrial capability. He scheduled a meeting two days later, on Friday, for the ministries to present their ideas.

The information presented in the Friday meeting was absolutely useless. The ideas represented nothing more than continuing lip service to protecting the environment. The ideas were all about protecting human beings, not nature. Nothing would change. It would be business as usual.

Joel’s effort to include the ministries in the planning process had failed to produce any ideas that might be useful for a plan. Perhaps the effort had been useful from a diplomatic viewpoint of including the Canadians in the planning process, even if their input was of no value. He realized that including the Task Force in the process of developing the plan was not a good approach. Instead, he and his team would develop the plan, and then use the Task Force to implement it. At the conclusion of the meeting, Joel thanked the group for their efforts and told them that he will take their ideas into account in developing a draft plan. A date for the next meeting would be set after he had completed a draft.

At the end of the second week, right after the Friday Task Force meeting, Viktor contacted Joel to enquire about progress on the plan. Joel described his activities over the past few days, involving the Task Force meetings with the Canadians. He explained that the ideas presented by the Canadians were of no value.

Viktor was not surprised by the lack of ideas from the Canadians. The purpose of any government is to serve its people, not nature. He comments, “No surprise. The nations of the world were the main source of the environmental problem. They have adamantly refused to address it, even when provided resources. What did you expect?”

Joel had been following the global situation carefully via the surveillance system that he was provided access to. He saw a very fluid situation, that was bound to change tremendously over the next few weeks. He told Viktor that he could not formulate a reasonable plan when the situation was changing so fast and so much.

Viktor expressed strong impatience. He told Joel that, in his view, it was rather obvious how the situation would play out. “Since nations no longer have access to petroleum, and with national electric grids inoperable, the global industrial system is deprived of energy, paralyzed, stopped. Any country that is dependent on the global industrial food system – and that is most countries – will soon be starving. This process may take a few months to stabilize, but it seems pretty clear that that is how it will play out. So, work up a plan that is appropriate for that context.”

Expressing his frustration, Viktor said, “For God’s sake, Joel, you understand the situation better than anyone else. If there is uncertainty about something, then consider some alternatives. As you do so well, construct a plan for a system that is antifragile. Instead of being thwarted by uncertainty, you should make use of it, take advantage of it. In politics, as in war, uncertainty can be a valuable ally. Recognize it, embrace it, and put it to good use! Make it work for you and against your opponents.”

Joel accepted Viktor’s admonition. Joel asked about what assets would be available to implement the plan, and whether he could know more about the relationship between Russia and Canada. Joel pointed out that Canada has recovered from the attack quite well, and was well on its way to continuing an industrial society. It would not be following the city-state model as conceived by Rani Singh. It would remain a substantial industrial power covering a substantial geographic area. He asked Viktor what he thought of this.

Viktor responded, “Canada is our ally. It is a special case. It is complementing Russia’s role and function as the world’s sole political power. Except for Russia and perhaps Canada, the global goal is to restrict industrial activity to cities of city-states. Overall, large-scale industrial activity is out. It is what has been destroying the biosphere. If the industrial activity in Russia and Canada is large-scale – larger than conceived in the city-state model – there has to be good reason for it, substantial justification for it. Justifiable with respect to the overall goals of protecting the biosphere and enabling a high quality of life for humanity. To be justified, it must be necessary to support a planetary management system throughout the rest of the planet.

“With respect to assets, assume that you have access to all that Canada can provide. But rely just on Canada’s resources. You and Canada are responsible for North America, but Russia is responsible for the entire rest of the world. Russia has its hands full, and quite frankly, we are stretched thin. That is why we have formed the alliance with Canada. That is why I am pressing you hard for a plan. I really want for you to take control of the Western Hemisphere – subject, of course, to my approval, to Russia’s approval.”

Viktor paused, and then continued. “Joel,” he said, “I know that things have been topsy-turvy, but that is just the way they are. And because they are, we need a plan, a good plan, and we need it immediately. The situation is very fluid and unstable. We need to retain the initiative and remain firmly in control. We cannot delay, or else other people start to think about things and start pushing their own agendas. We cannot afford that distraction – we need to keep our limited resources focused on the primary goal. We can take advantage of the chaos and uncertainty to implement our program, but we will quickly lose that advantage if we delay, or waste energy addressing irrelevant issues. Time is of the essence. We have to decide, right away, what we are going to do, and then push that agenda with vigor. We need a good plan, right away. I can make things happen, but I need your input on what should be done and how it should be done.”

Viktor paused. “Joel,” he said, “you and I have always been frank with each other, and have understood each other. I need a good plan, and I need it right away. Are we on the same page here?”

Joel was quite aware that he was being chastised, and he accepted that the criticism was warranted. He had not appreciated the strategic importance of fast and forceful – decisive – action in this time of turmoil. Viktor was a politician, a warrior, and he understood this aspect of the situation very well. He needed Joel’s input, but, as much as he valued it, he could not afford to wait very long for it.

Joel was in fact an expert, to whom Viktor had turned to for advice. Viktor had confidence in him and had given him carte blanche. This confidence was not misplaced. Joel was passionate about the PMS, and he knew generally what needed to be done to establish it. All he needed to do right now was sketch out a reasonable strategy for achieving that goal. He and his team could work up a good plan, and fast. He would work up the best plan that he could, assuming the full support of Russia and its ally Canada.

Russia had just conquered the entire industrial world. Right now, for a brief moment in history, it was in a position to do anything that it wanted. It could do anything that Joel wanted, if he played his cards right. Before the war, the likelihood of establishing an effective planetary management system had been nil. The tables were now dramatically turned, and, all of a sudden, but perhaps for not very long, there existed an incredible opportunity to achieve this elusive goal, so important to humanity and the biosphere.

Viktor had emphasized, and Joel now well realized, that the value of this opportunity could easily diminish in time, and the window for achieving it could close. The situation was very fluid, and, if he delayed, his agenda could be overcome by events. To maximize the likelihood that it would be his plan that was adopted and implemented, and not some other course of action taken, his plan had to trump any other plans or actions that might be proposed. He could do this if his plan was good and if it was ready before any other competing alternatives. Viktor was absolutely right about the importance of speed – take the initiative, strike hard and first, before your opponents have time to organize themselves and develop and push their own agendas. The situation everywhere was chaos, confusion and uncertainty. Joel realized that he must put these features to his advantage before they diminished the value of the opportunity, and before others made use of them.

“Viktor, I can certainly come up with a plan. A good plan. You know that. I did not recognize, however, the urgency of drafting the plan. There is no problem. I understand your concern. I will have a draft plan for you within a week.”

“That is good,” replied Viktor.

One thing that puzzled Joel was that, while large hydroelectric dams had been targeted in some places, they had not been targeted in Canada. He asked Viktor about that. Viktor responded that it was a little complicated. Some large dams, such as Three Gorges, Kariba, Volta, Itaipu, Hoover, and Aswan had been targeted. But not many. Large dams are hard to take out, even using nuclear bombs. A nation’s electrical grid can be disabled without taking out dams. All that is necessary is to damage the distribution system – the control facilities, the transformers, the transmission towers, the power lines. EMP is much more efficient than blast in neutralizing national electrical power grids. Russia did not target many dams directly since disabling the national grids is more easily accomplished by other means. Moreover, Canada’s dams were intentionally not targeted for the simple reason that Viktor’s vision of the future involved a strong northern land including the territories of Russia, Canada, and the Scandinavian countries. He had not yet decided how his vision for the future would be implemented, and he wished to keep his options open.

Chapter 3. Week 3: A Plan

Joel and his team began the task of developing a plan for implementing a planetary management system for the Eastern Hemisphere.

System Development Methodology

For the project, Joel and his team applied the standard methodology of systems engineering. The steps of this process include specification of a vision, or concept, for the system; specification of requirements; specification of performance measures, or criteria; synthesis of alternative, or candidate, systems that satisfy the requirements; comparison of the alternative systems with respect to the performance measures; selection of a preferred alternative; top-level design; detailed design; construction and test of system components; full-scale implementation; monitoring and evaluation; and improvement.

Vision

To begin the system design process, Joel summarized the overall characteristics of the planetary management system that had been designed earlier by the team. The system would partition the Earth into three types of areas: urban areas, which were industrialized; rural areas, which included permanent settlements but no industrial activity; and wild areas, which included neither industrial activity nor permanent human settlements.

The term “industrial activity” was construed to mean any organized activity involving technology more advanced than hunting and gathering, including agriculture. People were free to go anywhere in the three types of areas and to work or recreate there, subject to the restrictions on industrial activity and permanence of settlements.

The vision for the planet was one in which 99 percent of the planet’s surface was wild, and one percent was urban or rural. The team agreed that a vision for North America that was consistent with this global vision was a continent in which the Great Plains and the forests had been restored to their state prior to the arrival of Columbus to North America in 1492. The vision for South America was a continent in which the rainforests of Amazonia had been restored.

The team turned to discussion of Canada. In its current state, Canada did not comply with the 99-percent-wild requirement. The main reasons for this were the fact that ninety-eight percent of the Prairies had been destroyed and converted to agriculture, and that human population was distributed over large swaths of the provinces. It was Joel’s view that, except for restoration of the Prairies, the team should leave Canada pretty much alone. Russia’s alliance with Canada would be interpreted by Canadians that the country should be left essentially intact. Attempts to fundamentally alter its composition would motivate endless discussion and detract from the central purpose of restoring most of the rest of North and South America to wilderness. For the present, just making progress on restoring the Prairies would be a reasonable goal. The team agreed.

The discussion turned to the region that had been the 48 contiguous states of the former United States. It was quickly agreed that, to reconstitute the prairies and the forests, the interior of that area must be largely depopulated. How could this be accomplished? The obvious approach was to extend Viktor’s approach of destroying industrial activity. Viktor had said that Joel could not turn to Russia for further help in this effort. Whatever would be accomplished would now, in view of the alliance with Canada, be done with Canadian resources, and evidently, in view of the alliance, in compliance with Canadian law.

The discussion next focused on methods by which industrial activity could be controlled. To do so required that the target area be monitored, and that actions be taken to neutralize industrial activity when it was detected. With respect to monitoring, the Russian satellite surveillance system was of some help, but it was not under Canadian control.

The team considered the ways in which surveillance and control might be effected. What was wanted was a system that could monitor the entire Western Hemisphere, focusing on any particular area at will, and able to neutralize detected industrial activity. After some discussion, it was decided that the preferred system was one based on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), both for surveillance and control. Unarmed UAVs would be used for monitoring and armed UAVs for destruction of industrial targets. With this approach, Canadian armed forces personnel would not be put in harm’s way.

The big problem with this approach was range. The range of surveillance UAVs of reasonable size was a few hundred kilometers. Because of the weight of the munitions they carried, combat UAVs were either of substantial size – and cost – or they were of very limited range, or both. They could not be used to monitor and control the entire Western Hemisphere, if launched from Canadian territory as defined prior to the war. If Canadian territory were expanded to include the entire Western Hemisphere, then military installations would be required all over that area. The cost of maintaining and defending such a system was out of reach. More importantly, it would require permanent defense installations all over the Hemisphere, and that was not at all consistent with the goal of rewilding the Hemisphere.

Roger’s Concept

It was Roger Wilson, the strategist, who proposed a workable solution. Roger observed that railroad tracks were little affected by the nuclear war, unless in the area of a direct hit. He proposed that the region of North America below the southern border of Canada be considered a single city-state, with urban areas along a railroad line that circumscribed the rest of North America below the southern Canadian border, that is, the border between Canada and the former United States. All of the area from the rail line to the coast, and, say, ten miles on the interior side of the rail line, would be urban or rural area. Assuming that this distance was an average of about twenty miles wide, that area would comprise about two percent of the circumscribed land area. The urban-rural area of North America would be a narrow band that circumscribed the continental area below the southern border of Canada, and the wild area would be the region contained inside this band.

Roger explained why the settled area – the urban-rural band – would comprise about two percent of the land area. The total length of the rail line would be approximately 20,000 kilometers. (This is, approximately, the 9,300-kilometer coastline of Mexico, plus 4,400 km Central America coastline, plus 3,329 km US Atlantic coastline, plus 2,624 km US Gulf Coast coastline, plus 1,293 km US Pacific Coast coastline, for a total of 20,153 km.) A band of average width 20 miles, or 32 kilometers, along this length has an area of .64 million square kilometers. The area of North America is 24.7 million square kilometers. The area of Canada is 9.98 million square kilometers. Subtracting the area of Canada from the area of North America yields 14.72 million square kilometers – that’s the area of the 48 contiguous US states, Mexico, and Central America. The area of South America is 17.84 million square kilometers. Adding these two areas yields 32.56 million square kilometers. Dividing the area of the band, .64 million square kilometers, by the total area below the Canadian-US border, 32.56 million square kilometers, yields .0197, or 1.97 percent. That is, the urban-rural coastline will comprise about two percent of the total area of North and South America, less Canada.

Jack Barnes asked the question, “I thought that the goal was 99 percent wild. Your concept corresponds to 98 percent wild. Presented that way, the difference is just one percent. But that comparison is misleading. The sizes of the urban-rural areas corresponding to these are one percent and two percent, respectively. That’s a one-hundred percent difference. If this is an ambitious goal, and I imagine that it is, then we will likely fall short of it. The result could be five or ten percent urban-rural. It seems that, relative to the goal, you have set the bar pretty low. Is this not a concern?”

“I accept your point, Jack,” Roger responded. “One of the problems is that we have left Canada out of the picture, and it includes a vast wilderness area. Another is that the figure of one percent urban-rural, or ninety-nine percent wild, is somewhat arbitrary. Another is the definition of ‘wild.’ The primitive populations of prehistory covered vast areas of the Old World – certainly much greater than one percent – yet they lived, to a high degree, in harmony with the rest of the biosphere. The effect of human population on the biosphere is determined by density of population, level of living, and type of technology.

“When I use the term ‘wild’ to describe a region, I do not mean that it has no people at all. I mean that the human population is of sufficiently low a density that, given its lifestyle, its presence has little effect on the rest of the biosphere.

“I am sure that there are lots of combinations of population density and technology that would work for an effective planetary management system. Unfortunately, we do not know what those combinations are. We can only make educated guesses about some combinations that might work. The ecologist E. O. Wilson opined that a level of 50 percent wild might work, under certain conditions. We discussed this issue some time ago and settled on a more conservative goal of ninety-nine percent wild, under other conditions.

“We may not achieve that goal, and it could well be that a substantially lower percentage would work, depending on the definition of wild and what is going on in the urban-rural areas. Since there is much uncertainty here and we are gambling with the future of mankind and the biosphere, it is prudent to be conservative and set the goal high – a high percentage wild, with a relatively stringent definition of wild. To employ a minimal-regret decision strategy. With the catastrophic war that has just occurred, we are in a position to achieve a high percentage wild. In the present situation we have the opportunity to aim high, and we should make full use of that opportunity.

“In any event, we have discussed this issue at length and in much detail in the past, and there is no need to revisit it in detail now. Given the urgency of developing a plan, this is now the time for action consistent with what we have decided, not for further discussion of issues that we have resolved.”

“OK, fine,” admitted Jack, “I agree that just focusing on the exact numbers is not adequate – there is much more to the PMS than these percentages.”

“In fact,” continued Roger, if you include the Canadian wilderness areas and reduce the average width of the urban-rural band from 30 km to 20 km, you will obtain the one-percent ratio. The point is, settlements can be along a very long coastline and leave most of the continent’s area wild. It is the practice of saturation of large areas with a high density of high-technology human beings that has destroyed much natural habitat and caused much species extinction. Having the human settlements along a narrow band avoids this problem.”

“You are absolutely right,” agreed Jack. “The approach of linear development along the coast instead of areal development all over the continent, or even over a portion of it, is a great idea. It restricts the high-tech population to a compact area, which is good for the biosphere, but not to a single site, which would be vulnerable to extinction from a local catastrophic event.”

It was clear that Jack was becoming more and more excited about Roger’s proposal. He continued speaking. “In simple terms, the PMS city-state is defined in terms of just two basic land-use areas – urban-rural and wild – each of which is geographically internally contiguous. In the previous situation, industrial activity was distributed over almost the entire inhabited area of the planet. That setup not only destroyed most natural habitat, but it was difficult to monitor and control, since to do so required inspection of tens of thousands of locations. For the setup that you describe, all that is necessary is to monitor two geographic areas – the urban-rural area and the wild area. The urban-rural area would contain a single rural band dotted with a number of cities. Roger, I think that your proposal is brilliant!”

The group agreed that Roger’s idea was a good one, and the discussion turned to consideration of detailed aspects of his concept.

All along the circumferential rail line would be urban and rural settlements. In addition to this rail line would be two other rail segments. The first would be a line from Halifax, Nova Scotia, to Prince Rupert, British Columbia, a distance of about 6,255 km. The second would be a line from Winnipeg to New Orleans, a distance of about 2,676 km, running along the Mississippi River.

Along the complete rail line – the circumferential part and the two additional segments, would be located military stations, about 100 miles apart. These stations would support surveillance and control operations. Surveillance UAVs, or drones, would be launched to monitor the continent, and armed drones would be launched to terminate industrial activity in unauthorized areas. Fuel storage depots for the trains would be located along the rail lines, near the military installations.

Complementing the monitoring and control operations would be shore patrol boats, which would operate all along the ocean coast and up the Mississippi River. Fuel depots would be placed every 50 miles or so along the coast. These would be resupplied either from the rail line or by floating fuel tankers.

In South America, no rail line would be maintained. There would be no urban-rural band circumscribing the continent. South America would be monitored and controlled using just patrol boats along the ocean coast and along rivers navigable from the ocean, such as the Amazon River. As in North America, there would be military outposts situated every 100 miles or so along the coast. Initially, these would be resupplied by fuel tankers from Canada. Eventually, synfuel plants would be installed at some locations in South America, using trees as the feedstock.

There would be an urban area and rural area at each military outpost in South America. Outside of these areas, all remaining area of South America would be wild.

To support this system, it would be necessary to manufacture surveillance UAVs; armed UAVs; munitions for the armed UAVs (precision-guided munitions (PGMs), or “smart bombs”); patrol boats; locomotives; railroad cars; rails, ties and equipment; synthetic fuel plants; small modular reactors (both terrestrial and floating); and a complete line of equipment to supply new cities and settlements.

The system would require military personnel to operate the surveillance and control stations, the trains, and the patrol boats.

A significant feature of the proposed system was the fact that it did not rely on the use of military personnel to conduct on-the-ground search-and-destroy missions to neutralize industrial activity.

With the proposed design, with surveillance and control stations all along the ocean coast and rivers navigable from the ocean coast, all areas of both continents could be monitored and controlled.

The team discussed Roger’s concept at length and in detail, and determined it to be a feasible solution to the problem. The team agreed that this concept would form the basis for a plan for the planetary management system for the Western Hemisphere.

The issue to be addressed at this point was whether to discuss the concept with the Canadian government prior to presenting it to Viktor, or present it to Viktor without discussing it first with the Canadians. One limitation of the proposed concept was that it dealt only with areas outside of Canada. This limitation was deliberate, to avoid conflicts with laws and regulations that applied to Canada, and thereby expedite its acceptance by Canada.

Because the proposed concept did not require changes to Canadian laws and regulations, and also because Russia was in charge, it was decided to submit the plan to Viktor prior to discussing it with Canada. This approach was not without risk. Viktor would naturally ask to what extent the Canadians were involved in design of the concept, and whether they had reviewed and approved it. If Viktor approved it, then the Canadians would be bent out of shape that they had not been involved in design of the plan or shown a draft prior to its submission to Viktor.

When submitting the plan to Viktor, Joel would explain that he was showing the plan to Viktor prior to discussing it with the Canadians, and that, if Viktor approved the plan, discussing it with Canada would be the next step of the process.

Roger’s concept was simply a vision for a completed system. It was not a plan to implement that system. The system concept made use of proven technology, so that, from the viewpoint of technology, the development risk was considered low. It did not, however, address manufacturing capacities, resource constraints, costs and schedules. Difficulties with those aspects could in fact render it infeasible. Prior to submitting the plan to Viktor, those issues would have to be addressed. A quick review of Canada’s surviving industrial capacity indicated that production of the military materiel was well withing their capacity. The work could be divided between existing facilities in Winnipeg and Ontario.

Some aspects of Canada’s technology, such as production of steel and integrated circuits, did not have very high capacity, but those limitations could be overcome within a year.

Much of Canada’s energy supply had been disrupted. This included import of natural gas from the United States, synthetic fuel from oil sands in Alberta, and hydroelectric power, mostly from Québec (50 percent of Canada’s total), British Columbia (17 percent), Newfoundland and Labrador (10 percent), Ontario (10 percent) and Manitoba (9 percent). Total demand had been reduced both because of the destruction of major cities and the fact that export markets no longer existed. The decreases in these sources were being compensated for by the SMRs and synfuel plants. To support Canada’s surviving manufacturing capacity, substantial increases in energy production from SMRs and synfuel plants would be required. These increases were achievable within a year.

The rail lines envisaged in Roger’s concept already existed in many places. New lines could quickly be built around targeted cities in Canada and in the former US along the coasts and Mississippi River. From a construction viewpoint, the rail lines could be operational to a substantial degree within a few months. The major limitation was the fact that chaos now reigned in the US, and would continue for many months. For the present, military surveillance and control operations would have to be conducted from Canadian soil or from patrol boats, not from a rail line. Implementation of the system for South America would have to wait until the system was fully operational in North America.

Canada had a modest supply of surveillance UAVs and a minimal supply of armed UAVs. To implement the system within a reasonable time, say in a year or so, would require a substantial increase in Canada’s capacity to manufacture these weapons.

Canada had the capacity to produce patrol boats, and it possessed a number of them, but not in the amount needed to implement the plan. It could be that a number could be available from former US military sources, but the extent to which this would be a useful supply was not known at present.

At the end of the week, a draft plan was submitted to Viktor, based on Roger’s concept. Viktor’s immediate reaction was that the plan was a very good one, and that the team should proceed immediately to work with Canada to implement it.

Joel convened a meeting of the Task Force, to review the draft plan. The meeting was an unmitigated disaster. The almost-unanimous reaction of the Task Force members was that the plan infringed terribly on the basic human rights of the war survivors, and that it forced the Canadian military to destroy the means of their potential survival by terminating agriculture and other industrial activity in their former homeland. Such a strategy had been employed by conquerors many times in the past, such as in the scorched-earth policy of Britain against the Boers in the Second Anglo-Boer War and in the US government’s policy of extermination of the North American bison to destroy the culture of the North American Indians. Such actions were tantamount to mass murder, and Canada would not engage in them.

Joel reminded them that Russia’s concept of a planetary management system was one in which 99 percent of the planet was rewilded, and he asked how they proposed to do that. The basic response was that they did not know, but they would not engage in a “final solution” that was accomplished by destroying industrial capacity. Joel pointed out that the plan left Canada intact and basically unchanged, and did not infringe on the constitutional rights of Canadian citizens.

A member of the Task Force asserted that even non-Canadian-citizens possessed basic human rights. Joel countered that a right was simply a privilege that was provided by some political power, and it was not Canada’s role to back up the basic human rights of human beings in wild areas. The person countered that it was the responsibility of every civilized government to defend the basic human rights of everyone in the world, no matter where they were located. The discussion was getting nowhere, and so Joel terminated it.

Joel asked whether the draft plan might be modified in some way, to address their concerns. The response was that the draft plan was so fundamentally unacceptable that no conceivable modification could make it acceptable. Basically, the viewpoint of the group was the same as that of the Abrahamic religions – that the purpose of nature is to serve man and that mankind is to take dominion over nature. The idea of destroying industrial capacity that could be used to sustain human lives, no matter what the cost to nature, was totally unacceptable.

Joel doubled down. He recalled that the size of a human population that lived in harmony with the biosphere for hundreds of thousands of years was estimated to be about five million people – one thousandth of the present number of about eight billion. He pointed out that the source of the planet’s current ecological crisis and wretched quality of human life was large human numbers and large-scale industrial activity. To address these problems, it was necessary to reduce human numbers and industrial activity by a massive amount, by a factor of on the order of one-thousand. The approach embodied in the draft plan was to restrict industrial activity, and let human population numbers stabilize at low levels that could live in harmony with the rest of the biosphere. It was wrong to characterize it as a “final solution.” It did not target people at all. At most, there was a low level of collateral damage. In fact, most of the targeting would be of energy sources, such as hydroelectric facilities, coal fields and oil fields.

The very thought of destroying hydroelectric facilities and oil fields generated utter consternation. “How can you possibly suggest such a thing?” someone asked. “You are intent on destroying modern civilization!”

“No, I am not suggesting that at all. My intent is to save modern civilization, and the biosphere as well. Our plan is to continue modern technological civilization in a way that promotes a healthy biosphere and a high quality of life for humankind. The previous system does not accomplish these goals. In fact, it is the source of the problem. The previous system of large human numbers and industrial activity was destroying the biosphere, forcing billions of people to live in dire poverty, and causing the extinction of millions of species. Your proposal is to continue that system and thereby doom all future generations of mankind and the rest of nature to impoverishment and misery. Your proposal will not avoid collapse, but at most defer it. When it eventually does collapse, even more people will suffer and die, even more of the biosphere will have been destroyed, and the odds that future generations of mankind would exist, or exist with quality lives, will be further diminished. Is humanity the only species that matters? Is our generation the only one that matters? That would seem to be an incredibly egocentric viewpoint. How can you choose an option that causes more destruction, suffering and death to one that causes less?” Joel asked.

“You had better go back to the drawing board, sir,” one participant remarked. “Canada did not agree to ally with Russia simply to be its pawn in murdering millions of people. Your plan is offensive to Canadian values. Are you aware Jesus’ admonition, ‘For what shall it profit a man, if he shall gain the whole world, and lose his own soul?’”

Without thinking, Joel shot back, “You would sacrifice all of humanity and all of the biosphere to save your own soul?”

The delegate did not respond. A low murmur could be heard across the room, but no one spoke. A hush fell over the room. Finally, the delegate spoke, “I have nothing further to say in this matter.”

There was no salvaging the meeting, and Joel adjourned it.

After the meeting ended, Joel and his team were standing around near the dais, somewhat nonplussed. A man, one of the meeting participants, approached the group. He was the delegate from the Ministry for Crown-Indigenous Relations and Northern Affairs Canada, or CIRNAC.

He introduced himself to the team as John Brant. He was friendly. He chuckled as he said, “You certainly walked into a hornet’s nest this morning.”

“Yes, that’s so,” replied Joel. “You were noticeably quiet during the meeting. What is your reaction.”

“Well, overall, I did not have a problem with your plan,” he replied.

“Why didn’t you say so?” asked Joel, surprisedly.

“What would have been the point? It seemed that everyone was against your proposal. I prefer to choose battles in which the odds are better than nineteen to one against me.”

“OK,” Joel said, “I can certainly understand that. What can we do for you, Mr. Brant?”

“Well,” he began, “my ministry, CIRNAC, is concerned with the welfare of First Nations peoples. In your plan, as I understand it, you would essentially be transforming the prairies and forests of North America back to the way they were before the arrival of Columbus. Is that not so?”

“That’s a pretty fair assessment,” agreed Joel.

“Let me be very blunt. I am Iroquois, Haudenosaunee. All of my life, I have smarted at the fact that the European immigrants to the Americas expropriated all of my people’s lands and destroyed our culture. Your plan does not appear to do much for today’s First Nations peoples, but it does in fact restore their confiscated land to the way it was when they occupied it. Under your plan, could that land – essentially, ninety-nine percent of North and South America – be given back to the peoples who first settled it, and lived in harmony with nature on it for over ten thousand years?”

John’s question was totally unexpected, and it took Joel quite by surprise. “My goodness!” he exclaimed, “as you observed, you certainly are blunt! Well, to answer you directly, yes and no. Under our plan, everyone is free to go anywhere he wishes, to the urban areas, the rural areas, or the wild areas. The regulations apply to the nature of the activities that may take place in those areas, not to the people. In urban areas, or cities, industrial activity is permitted, including agriculture. In rural areas, small settlements are allowed, but no industrial activity. In wild areas, no permanent settlements are allowed, and no industrial activity. In urban and rural areas, citizens will be protected under the law. In wild areas, there is no protection under the law. If citizens want protection under the law, then they should remain in the urban-rural areas, not in wild areas. There is nothing new here. Throughout history, people have been subject to the laws of the physical region in which they were located. If you are a Canadian citizen in Italy, then you are subject to Italian laws.

“So, the tribes who occupied the wild areas may certainly reoccupy them. But, by the same token, so may anyone else. That is the way it was prior to Columbus’ arrival. If the Native American peoples are strong enough and determined enough, they can take the lands back. But any other group may prevent them from doing so, or take the lands away from them. The playing field would be level, in the sense that no one in the wild areas would be permitted the use of industrial technology. For a time, until the population restabilizes, firearms would be permitted. After that, only primitive weapons, such as bows and arrows, spears, knives, and hatchets, would be permitted. Have I answered your question?”

“Yes, you certainly have!” exclaimed John. “Let me ask another question, if I may.”

“OK,” replied Joel.

“The Canadians feel a tremendous burden of sadness, guilt even, for what happened to the First Nations peoples,” explained John. “If CIRNAC could represent that you are giving 99 percent of North and South America back to the aborigines, leaving Canada alone, I believe that they would go for it.”

“Are you serious?” Joel responded.

“Yes, I am deadly serious,” John replied. “Most people do not care a whit about humanity and the biosphere. If you rebrand the plan as a final reparation to the First Nations peoples, instead of a plan to save humanity and the biosphere, I believe that it will fly. If you agree, I would like to chair the next meeting of the Task Force, and present the reoriented plan.”

For a moment, Joel was speechless. After a moment, he exclaimed, “Why, Mr. Brant, that sounds like a great idea. I would be profoundly appreciative if you could do this. Our plan, as presented, was dead on arrival. You may very well succeed in reviving it. But, given the hostile reception we encountered this morning, why are you so sure that the plan can fly, no matter how it is repackaged?”

“I’ll tell you why,” John continued. “The First Nations peoples are long past the longhouse and tepee stage, but many would fight for a homeland. A very nice feature of your concept is that we may move at will from wild nature to rural to urban at will. Anywhere in the Western Hemisphere. We would no longer be relegated to live on barren land, as is the case now, from one end of the Hemisphere to the other. Under your scheme, things are like they were for millennia – no one owned the land, it was pretty much in a natural state, and everyone was free to roam anywhere.”

Joel was puzzled at Brant’s attraction to the plan. It was true that the plan would restore most of the continent to the unowned status that it had once had, but there was no guarantee that Brant’s people would have the skills, determination, or luck to possess any of it. Then Joel recalled Brant’s remark about the First Nations peoples smarting under the dispossession of their land by the Europeans. This could be an instance of the politics of envy.

Most people understand the politics of greed – the use of political power to further one’s own interests. But not many people appreciate the power of the politics of envy – the satisfaction that some people derive by denying to others what they cannot have for themselves. “If I can’t have it, then no one will!”

To the people who had been dispossessed of their homeland, it was easy to understand how they would take satisfaction in seeing those lands taken back from the descendants of the dispossessors. In fact, in seeing the descendants dispossessed of everything they had, as had happened to them. It would settle the score.

For a moment, Joel had an urge to pursue these thoughts further, but he immediately suppressed it. Whatever Brant’s motives were, they were irrelevant to Joel’s goal of establishing the PMS. All that mattered was that Brant was willing and potentially able to help achieve that goal.

Joel simply agreed, “Yes, it would make the lands free once more.”

Brant continued, “You may have concluded, understandably, that everyone in today’s meeting was against you. That is not really true. Watch out for the quiet ones. I have staunch allies in several other ministries, including Environment and Climate Change, Natural Resources, Fisheries and Oceans, and Indigenous Services. If the plan is packaged suitably, I am sure that I can obtain enthusiastic support from National Defence to support your plan to protect the bison. Realistically, that effort will require some boots on the ground. Given the current state of affairs, with Russia the sole world power and Canada under Russian control, the Canadian military is completely lacking in purpose. They will delight in having a meaningful role to fulfill. Protecting the bison from mob rule and slaughter by millions of starving war survivors will be a very challenging and useful mission.

“A really significant aspect of your plan, which will enable me to overcome the apparent initial opposition, is that, fundamentally, it does not mess with Canada. We may have lost the war to Russia, but we have a tremendous opportunity here to carry on much as before. Your plan and our desire to continue to exist as a nation are not incompatible. Basically, Canada just has to cooperate in the effort to repair the biosphere, and that is not a bad thing to be doing. Reconstituting the rest of the Hemisphere is not an onerous burden; it is a worthy goal. That loud noise you heard today about trampling on basic human rights was a smokescreen. It is now a new ball game, and everyone knows it. Exports are gone. The old jobs we had are gone, and we have to work on something new. The government is desperate to get people back to work. The country needs a new mission, a new sense of purpose. This is a very worthwhile project, it benefits Canada, and it can succeed.”

“Well,” said Joel, “you seem to be quite accepting of the plan, but many in the meeting today were downright hostile. That hostility had nothing to do with First Nations peoples. Are you being realistic?”

“It is much more than regard for First Nations peoples. Let me explain why,” John replied. “Canadians are a proud people. They have suffered substantial loss in a terrible war. The export markets – oil, vehicles, minerals, grains, electricity – that have made us wealthy have been destroyed. And now, the victor sends in a team of hot-shot Americans to tell us what we are going to do next. We have lived in America’s shadow for a long time. The United States is now gone, yet a team of Americans is still pulling strings, from its grave. The delegates here resent the fact that it is an American who is in charge of the Task Force, instead of a Canadian. Surely you can appreciate the basis for the resentment.

“In your presentation today, you proposed a program where Canada does all the work, from its cold, hard home in the north, to save the entire rest of the Hemisphere. Your plan would have us working in missile factories to support a Garden of Eden in the rest of the Hemisphere. What sort of deal is that? Will Canadians reap any of the benefits? In any sales pitch, you have to sell the benefits to the customer, and, quite frankly, you were not doing that. You may have sold yourself on the plan, and you may have sold Russia on the plan. But you have not sold Canada on the plan. I think you must see the problem – you did not address important issues of concern to Canada. Giving the Great Plains and Eastern Forest back to the Indians may be a noble gesture, but it is not at all sufficient. If your plan is to be implemented by Canada, it must be very clear that it is of tremendous benefit to all Canadians. In fact, it must benefit Canadians more than it benefits others.

“I believe that the plan is good for Canada and Canadians, or at least, that it can be, but the sales pitch has to be much more convincing, and on a personal level. Almost everyone in the world wanted to save the biosphere, or said that they did, but almost no one did anything about it. No one felt that he individually could do anything meaningful about it, and everyone was busy with the everyday chores of making a living. The mindset has always been that nature is there for the taking, and that it can handle whatever mankind dishes out. Even now, most Canadians may feel that the situation is totally beyond their control. Their lives have been shattered. To sell the plan, you must show how it will benefit their own particular situation, not just be of general benefit to the biosphere or to future generations of mankind. You must make it very clear that, under the proposed system, the quality of life will be substantially improved for individual Canadians, and that that will not be the case if the plan is not adopted. You must make it clear that their work will be meaningful. That they can live, work and recreate anywhere. That they are free to enjoy nature’s bounty to a full extent, and to the same extent as anyone else. These things are true, but they are rather well hidden in your presentation, by the technical details of your solution.

“Finally,” John concluded, “in order for the plan to be accepted, it must be a Canadian plan, not a Russian plan or an American plan.” John paused, and looked Joel straight in the eye.

“I see your points,” Joel replied. “They are well taken. I believe that your approach will work. There is obviously work to be done.” Joel paused. “Well, Mr. Brant,” he concluded, “we are at your service in helping in any way we can. At your convenience, let’s meet and work out the details.”

The two parties agreed to meet at nine o’clock the following morning.

As soon as John had departed, Joel contacted the Russian Ambassador and asked him to arrange for the head of the Task Force to be John Brant, effective immediately.

Over the next few days, John Brant worked on a revised plan. His appointment as head of the Task Force was immediately approved, and the ministries informed of the change. John contacted the Task Force representatives from every ministry, and met with them one-on-one to discuss the revised plan. He acknowledged that the initial presentation of a plan without prior involvement of the ministries had been a serious mistake. He pointed out that Canada had an exceptional opportunity to influence the plan, but that Russia was in full complete control, and that the plan must comply with the basic requirement of a biosphere that was 99 percent rewilded, or at least something close to that. He also pointed out that Joel had Viktor’s ear, and that hostility toward him would not serve Canada well.

Consistent with his discussion with Joel and his team after the recent meeting, John focused on selling the benefits, not just to the biosphere and to Canada, but to each individual ministry and its constituents. Prior to the war, one-third of Canada’s gross domestic product was associated with exports, and the export market was now completely gone. Many Canadian businesses and Canadian individuals now had no livelihoods and no sources of income. The plan represented an exceptional opportunity to define meaningful work for this new era. The ministries perceived this opportunity immediately, and were quick to identify ways in which their constituents could contribute and benefit.

Now that John was in charge of the Task Force, that the ministries would participate actively in development of the plan, and that it was clear that Canada, the ministries, and their constituents would benefit from the plan, the hostility toward Joel and the plan evaporated.

A revised draft was quickly developed. The principal fact that facilitated the development of the plan was that the basic requirements of the planetary management system were not imposed on Canada, but only on areas outside of Canada. In brief, those measures were the land-use measures that industrial activity would be permitted only in cities and that no permanent settlements were permitted in wilderness areas.

Joel’s reason for adopting the approach of leaving Canada as is was Yvonne’s observation that effective global population control measures can be imposed only by a sole world power. History had shown that no country could successfully impose such measures on its own people. If there had been no alliance of Canada with Russia, then the population control measures of the planetary management system (PMS) would be imposed on Canada by Russia. Now that Canada was in charge of implementing the PMS in the Western Hemisphere, however, it was, effectively, a political extension of Russia. Those measures would not, therefore, be imposed on Canada, but only on the areas outside it, under its control.

Or, at least, that was Joel’s view. When he submitted the initial draft plan to Viktor for his approval, Joel had not explicitly mentioned this point, and it was therefore not considered or discussed. Either Viktor had recognized the point and had tacitly agreed with it, or he had missed that fact. At one point, following Viktor’s approval of the initial draft plan, it occurred to Joel that this point had not been raised or discussed. In retrospect this was an oversight, and Joel made a mental note to raise the point with Viktor when the revised draft plan was submitted to him.

The revised draft plan addressed the issue of timing. The brief weapons exchange that occurred in the first few days of the war was just the beginning of a collapse of the global industrial system that would take years to play out. The direct effects of the blasts destroyed much industrial infrastructure and industrial energy sources, and perhaps two billion people. Perhaps another billion died in the next couple of weeks from injuries and radiation poisoning. At now, three weeks after the start of the war, gasoline and food supplies were beginning to run out. Rampant looting had cleared supermarkets and warehouses of food. Water supplies, dependent on the electric grid, were disrupted. Gangs of people were attacking anyone who might possess food or gasoline. Very quickly, people assembled into groups, to defend themselves.

The Minister of National Defence summarized the situation. Up to now, no groups from the United States had attacked any Canadian locations. Now that food reserves were exhausting, however, gangs were beginning to attack farms and slaughter the livestock. With respect to the plan, a major concern was the bison. While an estimated 500,000 of them were distributed across the US, in all 48 states, most of them were in a relatively small number of herds. Some of those herds were in National Parks, such as Yellowstone, but many were on private ranches.

The Minister of Defence assessed that the bison herds were in peril, and would quickly be slaughtered. He assessed that there were three basic ways to prevent this. The first was to surveil the locations of the major herds and destroy any vehicles that approached those locations, using armed UAVs. That option was not considered very useful, for two reasons. Many of the herds were situated deep in the US, far from the Canadian border. Canada possessed relatively few long-range surveillance UAVs, and would not be able to surveil many sites for much of the time. Just as significantly, it possessed few armed UAVs, and those had even shorter range.

The second way of protecting the bison herds was to send armed units to the herd locations. For herds located close to the Canadian border, this was a feasible option. The units could be dispatched either by land vehicle or helicopter. For herds located deep in the US, however, this option was not workable. The units could not be sent by land vehicles, because there were no fuel supply depots along the routes. Units could be parachuted in, but they would be on their own, without rapid logistical or combat support. When their mission ended, they would have to get back to Canada on their own.

The third option was to send in units whose task was to round up the herds and bring them north to Canada, or to locations close to Canada that could be defended. In a year or two, after the interior of North America had been largely depopulated of human beings, the herds could be redistributed back in the US. Someone who knew a little about bison pointed out that bison were not domesticated cattle, that they could not be driven in compact herds, and that this option was completely unworkable.

The pros and cons of the first two options were debated at length. Eventually, a plan was devised that was a combination of both options. For herds near Canada, units would be dispatched to defend them. These units could rely on support from Canada. For herds far away, units would be dispatched to major herds. They would probably be Canadian Rangers, supported by air drops of supplies.

Protection of the bison was the significant time-sensitive aspect of the plan. Except for that operation, it was not planned to send any forays into the territory of the former US. It was easy to envisage the carnage that was about to occur. Because of the large number of guns and amount of ammunition owned by US citizens, and because of the fractionated ethnic composition of the United States population, wholesale slaughter would ensue. It was estimated that this slaughter would continue for much of a year. Because of the destruction and chaos, few crops would be planted. No food could be imported. The population reduction that was not accomplished by guns would be accomplished by starvation and disease. It was estimated that the population of the former US would decline from a prewar amount of about 330 million to a few million, within a year.

The Minister of National Defence asserted that, except for the bison rescue mission, he saw no other mission that might require exposure of Canadian troops to the mayhem that was about to take place in the US. The establishment of the rail line, the fuel depots, and the cities and settlements along the coast would have to wait for about a year, before being safe to undertake.

When the revised draft plan was ready, it was submitted to Viktor for review and approval.

Viktor liked the plan. He took no issue with any part of it. Joel pointed out that the plan assumed that no efforts would be taken to have Canada comply with the PMS land-use regulations. Viktor said that he realized that. He asked why Joel had not raised this point when he submitted the first draft, in view of the fact that he considered it important to do so now. Joel told him that it was simply an oversight. Viktor said that he had noticed this fact, but that it was of no consequence since it was clear from the numerical calculations that Canada had been omitted from them.

Joel asked Viktor what he thought about exempting Canada from the PMS land-use restrictions. Viktor replied that he had no problem with that. He reasoned, just as Joel had, that since Russia was exempted, and since Canada was fulfilling Russia’s role in the Western Hemisphere, it was logical that Canada would be exempted, too.

“Besides,” he added, “if this plan does not work well, it can be changed.” Viktor continued, waxing philosophical. “Things change. Change is fundamental in the universe. Large-scale global industrialization brought us science, technology, an understanding of what we are, and many fabulous inventions. But it is now destroying the biosphere. It served a useful purpose, that purpose has been achieved, and its time is over. Similar reasoning applies to Canada. It is useful at the present time to keep it intact as an industrial power, in order to implement the PMS plan. After the plan has been implemented, there may no longer be a need for a large, industrialized Canada. So, at that time, if necessary or desirable, we would change that.”

Joel realized that it was evidently Viktor’s plan that Canada would remain a large industrial country only so long as it was needed to implement the PMS.

“Of course,” Viktor continued, “there is no need for you to point this out to the Canadians. They are politically astute, and realize that any alliance lasts only as long as it suits both parties.” He paused, then continued. “You know, Joel, it is good that you are an American and not a Canadian. I can speak much more openly with you than I can with the Canadians.” With that final observation, Viktor ended the telephone conversation.

Aside from his team members, the first person to whom Joel reported Viktor’s approval was John Brant.

“Congratulations, Mr. Brant, you pulled it off! “Joel exclaimed. “You did it! Viktor bought the plan!”

John was very pleased to hear the news. “Well, it was just your plan, repackaged,” he replied. “Kudos to all of us.”

“I am still rather amazed at the fact that the Task Force accepted the plan, since it was essentially the same as before,” Joel remarked.

“Well,” replied John, “the plan was a logically sound response to the ecological crisis, and it, or something similar to it, was necessary. The thing that was wrong in the first presentation was the presentation process, not the product. An analogy might be a comparison of seduction to rape. The end result is essentially the same, but one approach is acceptable and works well, and the other approach is not acceptable and works very poorly. To sell the plan, it had to be, first of all, a good plan. And then, we had to make a good presentation. You are a technologist, and I am a politician. Selling the plan required both skill sets.”

“Well,” Joel concluded, “this is a happy day!”

As soon as Viktor formally approved the plan, it was put into execution.

Chapter 4. Weeks 4-52: The Road to Equilibrium

Saving the Bison

The very first action to be taken under the plan was to secure the bison. Troops were dispatched immediately to all large bison herds. As planned, those close to the US were supported using land vehicles and helicopters, and those far from the border using air drops. The mission was executed flawlessly. A couple of herds were poached, and one was attacked by an armed gang, which was destroyed. The presence of the Canadian troops was well posted, and people kept away. The protected bison herds were saved. As for the disposition of the small herds scattered over the US, little is known. Most of them were probably slaughtered and eaten.

Global Collapse

This story is about what happened in North America after the global nuclear war, and little more will be said in this narrative about happenings outside of North America, except for a brief summary.

Around the world, the collapse of the global industrial system happened at different rates and in different ways. Russia proceeded with establishment of the planetary management system in the Eastern Hemisphere. Viktor liked Roger’s concept of confining urban-rural settlements to coastal areas, and adopted it for the Eastern Hemisphere.

With fossil fuels gone and with national electrical grids no longer operational, food production and distribution systems failed. Russia restricted its satellite communication systems to use by Russia and Canada only. Without electrical power, long-distance communications ceased. Local communications continued on short-wave radios, but local communications were not sufficient to maintain modern states, so they quickly collapsed. With food supplies running out almost immediately, most of the world quickly slid into anarchy.

As mentioned, perhaps three billion people died from immediate effects of the global war – blast, heat and radiation. From that point on, most deaths were caused by violence, exposure and starvation. By the end of the first month, another billion were dead. By the end of the second month, another two billion.

The situation varied substantially by country. About half of the world’s countries were not hit at all. If they were not dependent on outside food, they could continue to operate after a fashion for a short time, until petroleum supplies ran out. Many countries have about a 30-day reserve of petroleum and about a 30-day supply of food.

The survivors continue to survive by scavenging. Initially, there was much killing for food occurred, but as the food supplies exhaust and the ammunition exhausts, this tapered off.

Central governments collapsed. The survivors assembled into gangs controlled by local gang leaders / warlords. Larger gangs preyed on smaller gangs. In general, gangs remained in an area that was familiar to them, and did not roam about. Only when food supplies are exhausted in a gang’s area did it move to another area. If the new area was occupied by another gang, a fight for control ensued, with annihilation of one of the two gangs.

In general, the outcome of the gang warfare was that the larger gang wins. As a result, as time passed, the situation evolved to one in which there were fewer and fewer gangs, of larger and larger size.

In the early years of radio, shortwave radio was valued for its ability to communicate around the world. As telephones and Internet-connected microcomputers evolved, they eventually supplanted much shortwave radio communication, but there was still much interest in shortwave radio. It was used by not only by international radio stations and radio amateurs (or “hams”), but also for essential aviation, marine, diplomatic and emergency purposes. Shortwave radios were available as receivers (one-way; receive only) or as transceivers (two-way; transmit and receive). In recent years, the market for low-cost shortwave transceivers had increased tremendously, and many good-quality handheld models were available at a low price.

Handheld shortwave radios included the radio-frequency bands used by citizens-band (CB) radio and amateur radio, and other bands as well. The term “amateur” was used to differentiate it from commercial broadcasting, public safety (such as police and fire), and professional two-way radio services (such as maritime, aviation, and taxis). Whereas CB radio may be used for either personal or commercial purposes, amateur radio was restricted to non-commercial use.

Because of the wide availability of hand-held shortwave transceivers, they immediately found widespread use in the post-attack period. One problem with the phones in a postattack setting was that they required batteries. Nonrechargeable batteries were soon in short supply, and rechargeable batteries need electricity. Soon, alternatives to batteries were seen, such as the use of photoelectric panels and automobile generators/alternators driven by windmills or bicycles. Most of the low-cost shortwave radios use the very high frequency (VHF) and ultra-high frequency (UHF) bands, and are useful only for line-of-sight use. For long-distance transmission, the high frequency (HF) band must be used. Another limitation of the low-cost radios is that they are very low power. They can receive strong signals from far away, but low-power signals from only a few miles away, and they can transmit only a few miles. In summary, the low-cost shortwave radios were useful as walkie-talkies, but not for long-distance two-way communication. These radios could support the tactical communication requirements of a local gang or warlord, but their range was too limited to support the communication needs of an entity, such as a state government, that covers a large geographic area.

Announcing the Plan

As soon as the plan was approved by Viktor, the Canadian government broadcast its essential features over the HF radio-frequency band. It stated that the interior of North America was to be rewilded, within a year. No industrial activity would be allowed, and no permanent settlements. Permanent settlements would be allowed only along the ocean coasts. These settlements would include cities, in which industrial activity, including agriculture, was permitted, and rural areas, in which small permanent settlements (villages) were allowed, but no industrial activity (or agriculture).

The announcement stated that no military action would be taken directly against people to force them to relocate to the coasts. All that would be done is to neutralize industrial activity, if it is seen. Starting one year from now, Canada would supply cities located approximately 160 kilometers apart along the coast with electricity, heat and water, and support their operation until they could be self-sufficient.

What was not explained in the announcement is the fact that the coastal cities will accommodate just a small fraction of the current surviving population. Furthermore, many Canadians may wish to leave Canada for the coastal regions. If the coastline to be settled is 20,000 km long, and there is a city about 160 km (100 miles) apart on average, then there will be about 125 cities. It is planned that the average population of the cities would be about 50,000 people. The total population of these cities would hence be about 6.25 million. Some people may choose to live in the rural areas, but it was expected not many. It was estimated that the surviving population of North America was, at present, several hundred million people, substantially down from about 600 million before the war, but much greater than six million. At the end of one year, however, it was estimated that the surviving population would be far smaller than the present number.

Because the present situation was unique, it was difficult to estimate with much confidence just how many people would survive. There are lots of estimates of the carrying capacity of land areas. They are based on estimates of the food-production capacity of the land under different assumptions, such as hunting and gathering, primitive agriculture, and modern industrial agriculture. While this approach is appropriate for constructing rough estimates of populations under these conditions in the long term, it was of somewhat limited user here, because the major factor determining the population size in this particular situation would not be the capacity of the land to produce food, but the capacity of the nuclear-war survivors to kill each other. The US population was armed to the teeth, and their weapons would be put to use as they struggle to survive in the postattack world. They would continue to kill each other until the ammunition runs out, or until the population density was so low that people could live off wild plants. They would not be able to live off wild animals for long since, with the massive number of guns and ammunition, much of the wildlife that remains in North America would be purged in short order.

It was not expected that food would be obtained from agriculture, for several reasons: impossibility of continuing large-scale agriculture under postattack conditions (no means of protecting crops or livestock from marauders; lack of fuel, electricity and supplies for operation of mechanized machinery, irrigation systems, and battery production of animals; no fertilizer, no herbicides, no insecticides, lack of agricultural supplies or equipment); limited availability of seed, which, under large-scale industrial agriculture, is no longer generally available at the local level; low level of productivity of the land because of impoverishment of the soil by industrial agriculture; nonavailability of food processing and distribution systems; lack of knowledge; chaos; despair.

Given the small amount of food in inventories, the limited availability of food from nature, and the breakdown of agricultural systems, it was expected that the population of North America after a year would be less than that estimated to survive under hunter-gatherer conditions. The population density of pre-agricultural man has been estimated to be on the order of about eight persons per 100 square kilometers of habitable land, or about one person per 12.5 square kilometers. The land area of North America is about 25 million square kilometers, of which perhaps half, or 12.5 million square kilometers, is habitable (not deserts, mountains, lakes). This land could hence support about a million people under pre-agricultural conditions.

The envisioned planetary management system was intended for steady-state conditions. Under these conditions, people are free to move at will among the urban, rural and wild areas. Those conditions correspond to a situation in which the human population in the wild areas has stabilized to an equilibrium in which the human population exists as a minor component of the complete biosphere. It does not correspond at all to a situation in which many millions of people occupy the interior of North America. Under those conditions, a low-density fringe of urban-rural population along the coasts would be attacked and overwhelmed. Implementation of the PMS in North America would have to wait until the human population outside of Canada declined to a low number, such as one million.

The preceding information was not included in the announcement of the plan for the planetary management system.

The PMS concept that Russia, and by extension, Canada, was implementing was to prohibit industrial activity outside of Russia, Canada, and authorized, or chartered, cities. Canada was responsible for implementing this policy in the Western Hemisphere. If the population south of Canada were on the order of a million people, then Canada could proceed with the concept, set forth in the plan submitted to and approved by Viktor, of establishing cities and naval fuel stations along the ocean coasts and navigable rivers of North and South America, and a rail line circumscribing North America below the Canadian southern border. From those locations, industrial activity could be monitored and controlled using small surveillance UAVs and armed UAVs having a range of about 500 kilometers. But those cities and fuel stations could not be defended as long as the population interior to the continents remained high. Until the population declined to a low number, it would be necessary to monitor and control industrial activity from positions along Canada’s southern border. To monitor and control North America from Canada would require UAVs with a range of about ten thousand kilometers. The size of these long-range UAVs is much larger than the short-range ones.

In summary, the types of UAV required for the PMS depended very much on whether the monitoring and control was to be done from Canada or from the continental ocean and river coasts, and the feasibility of using the coasts depended very much on the size of the monitored population. In either case, the system would require support from the Russian satellite communication system, to enable communication over the horizon and at high data rates, and for access to positioning information for navigation.

Canada could defend coastal cities and fuel depots from attack if the continental population were on the order of a million. If, because of the lack of food, fuel and electricity, the continental population below the Canadian southern border were to decrease quickly, say, within a year, to about a million, then there would be no need for the large UAVs, only for the small ones. To avoid expending the resources on large UAVs, which might not be needed, the government decided to wait and see how fast and how much the population declined.

For the present, Canada would monitor population and industrial activity below its southern border, but take no steps to control it.

The Sarnia Incident

Because of the widespread availability of handheld shortwave radios, within a week after the war survivors in the former United States were learning that Canada had survived as an industrial nation. The heavy-industrial area near Detroit had been destroyed, but substantial population in the Detroit metro area had survived. By the end of two weeks, some survivors had traveled to Port Huron, which is the Michigan city across the border from Sarnia, Ontario, with the intention of seeking refuge in Canada.

On the US side of the border, the border station was closed, with no personnel present. On the Canadian side, the border station was also closed, but personnel were always present. The two border stations were on opposite sides of the St. Clair River, which separates Canada from the US. Between the two border stations was a large two-span bridge, called the Blue Water Bridge, that crossed the river. The spans ran east-west. The northern span carried traffic from Canada to the US, and the southern span carried traffic from the US to Canada. Pedestrians were not allowed on the bridge; traffic was by motor vehicle only.

With the US border station closed, the would-be refugees simply walked around the station and across the bridge to the Canadian station. A chain-link fence had been stretched across all lanes of the road, so no one could enter the customs and immigration building.

On the first day that they arrived, the would-be immigrants, perhaps a few dozen, gathered along the fence and called to the agents to let them enter. The agents answered back that the border was closed, and that they should go back to the US. On the second day, dozens more appeared. Some carried signs with various appeals for help, including, “Refugee,” “International Refugee,” “UN Refugee,” “We Have Rights,” “Let Us In,” “I’m Hungry and Thirsty,” “We Want Food,” and “Black Lives Matter.” This last sign might have seemed out-of-place, but in fact most of the refugees were black.

The crowd of people now numbered perhaps 100. They continued to call to be let in, and they began to bang on the fence. A few in the crowd were seen talking on handheld radios.

When the refugees began to bang on the fence, the station manager placed an urgent call to headquarters, informing them of the situation. He reported that the flow of refugees was continuing, that the crowd was now large, would not comply with orders to go back to the US, and was becoming unruly. He feared that the situation could easily deteriorate. He asked for guidance on how to handle the situation, and he requested security backup.

On the third day, hundreds more people arrived. On this day, the mood of the crowd changed. One member of the group took charge, and positioned himself alone in the middle of the stretch of fence, with the crowd about fifteen feet from him. It was evident that the group had accepted him as the leader, but it was not evident how the selection process had proceeded. Perhaps it had to do with the radio calls. Perhaps he had been the leader from the beginning, when the first refugees arrived, and he himself had just now arrived.

In any event, he asked to speak with the station manager. The station manager came outside and proceeded to the fence.

“You appear to be in charge of the group,” the station manager began.

“Yes, that’s true,” he replied, “I am.”

“May I know your name?” the manager asked.

“My name is Bob. Bob Rupert,” he answered. “I see from your badge that you are Agent Walker.”

“That’s correct. I am,” Walker replied. “Well, Mr. Rupert, we have a bit of a problem here.” Walker glanced at the crowd.

“Oh, what might that be?” Rupert asked.

“The border is closed. Canada is not admitting anyone. I have asked the group to go back to the US, and they have not complied.”

“Under the law, Canadian law, we have a right to petition as refugees,” Rupert stated.

“Yes, you do. But under the law, the Canada Border Services Agency can determine when this station is open and when it is closed, and, at the present time, it is closed.”

“And when will it open?”

“Mr. Rupert, as you well know, we are at war. I do not know when the station will reopen. Your group is not authorized to stay here. Please tell them to leave.”

“Agent Walker, as you know, the US has been annihilated. These people have nowhere to go. They have no food. They are hungry. Can you give us some food?”

Agent Walker paused for a moment. He decided that it may be best to continue the dialog. “Mr. Rupert, these are very unusual times. Ordinarily, I would not do this. In view of the circumstances, however, I will convey your request for food to my superiors.”

“How long will that take? My people are very hungry, right now.”

“I would expect a quick response. It is still very early in the morning. Because of the urgency, and because it is early, I would say later in the day.”

“OK, fine,” Rupert replied. He turned around and moved back to the crowd.

Agent Walker returned to the building and immediately telephoned headquarters with the request.

Because of the urgency of the request, it moved immediately up the chain of command, to the Minister of Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness.

At 10:00 o’clock each morning, a meeting of the Prime Minister’s Cabinet was held. The Minister of Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness had received the report and request from the Sarnia station at about nine o’clock, and would describe the situation at the ten-o’clock meeting.

At his time to speak, the Minister of Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness summarized the situation.

“As we are all very aware, the war’s destruction to the US has been catastrophic. Nevertheless, it is estimated that between one and two hundred million people have survived. Food supplies are expected to last for a few weeks, but the situation will then become dire. We are aware that many of the US survivors have learned that although Canada suffered destruction, it is still a functioning country. Our assessment is that there will be a massive migration of the US survivors to Canada, to apply for refugee status.

“Although the US-Canadian border is easily crossed all along its length, we expect that, at least initially, the vast majority of refugees will show up at border crossing stations. There are over one hundred of these. At present, because of the war, these stations are all closed. We are already receiving reports, however, of survivors assembling at the border crossings, seeking refuge. At Sarnia, for example, we received a report yesterday of perhaps 100 people at the station, seeking entry. Just this morning, I received a report from the Sarnia station manager that the crowds are hungry and pleading for food. The manager is very concerned. All that separates the station buildings from the crowd is a temporary chain-link fence.”

Another minister asked, “If the crowds are increasing that fast, in short order they will simply break down the fence. Or go around it. As you noted, the US-Canadian border is essentially open. In fact, the survivors can do this at any time. Why are they even bothering with going through the border crossings?”

“You are correct that they can cross at will, almost anywhere along the border. What they want, however, is official refugee status, so that they receive all of the associated benefits – income, food, housing, education, training, jobs. That is why they are assembling at the crossings, and not crossing just anywhere.”

The Minister of National Defence spoke. “The number of US survivors is vastly larger than the entire population of Canada. There is absolutely no way that they can be accommodated. If we let them in, our country will be destroyed.”

The Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship responded. “What you say may be true, but under Canadian law, we have to admit these people and consider their cases. We cannot simply turn them away.”

The Minister of Public Safety responded. “The station agent at Sarnia told the crowd that he would pass along their request for food simply as a stalling maneuver. He told the crowd that he would let them know the status of the request later in the day. We need to adopt a policy, and get back to him. By the way, the crowd at Sarnia does not appear to be a random assembly. They are conversing by handheld radios with others. This morning, a leader showed up, who is obviously in control of the crowd. In this case, we are dealing with an organized group, not a rag-tag mob.”

“We must turn them away,” the Defence Minister asserted.

“That is an illegal action,” the Minister of Immigration countered. “They have rights. The Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms applies to all persons in Canada, not just citizens.”

“No, it is not an illegal act,” the Defence Minister asserted. “From what the Minister of Public Safety has said, this is an organized invasion. It has a leader. They are communicating with confederates. If this group invades Canada, we do not need special legislation to respond. The Canadian Armed Forces may respond immediately to an invasion. We do not even need to invoke the Emergencies Act to take that action.”

“So, what do we do? Do I supply the crowd food, to stall further, or does the Defence Minister send troops to defend the Sarnia crossing?”

The Prime Minister intervened. “In my view, we should not overreact. Let’s provide the food, and see what happens. If we hold to our position that the crossing is closed, maybe they will leave.”

The Defence Minister spoke, “With all due respect, to provide them food will simply encourage more people to come. The accommodation approach was used by the US at its southern border. Even in peacetime, about a million refugees showed up each year. To provide them food is to invite disaster. We must repel them immediately, or face a dire situation.”

The Prime Minister responded. “The circumstances that motivate this situation are not going away. Stalling for a few days is not going to change the big picture. It is my decision to provide the food, and tell them to go back to the US.”

After the Cabinet meeting ended, the Minister of Public Safety sent a message to the Sarnia station manager that the request for food had been approved. In view of the urgency of the situation, he was to purchase it immediately from local stores and provide it to the crowd. He was to announce that his was a one-time humanitarian gesture, that the government was not going to open the station to admit anyone, and that they were to leave Canadian soil immediately.

The station manager relayed the Minister’s message to the group spokesman. By mid-afternoon, food and water had been obtained and was being distributed to the crowd.

The crowd did not disperse. On the following day, several thousand more refugees appeared. The station manager reported the development, procured and distributed more food, and repeated his requests for the crowd to return to the US. The area was becoming littered with human waste. The station manager ordered fifty portable toilets.

On the next day, perhaps ten thousand more refugees appeared. The station manager reported the situation. He was told that the position of the government had not changed. Continue to provide food and water.

On the following day, more than ten thousand more showed up. This group differed fundamentally from the previous arrivals, in that they were armed. They were armed with handguns, semi-automatic rifles, and automatic rifles. At two in the afternoon, the group spokesman asked to speak with the station manager.

“Agent Walker,” he began, “we have been very patient. The conditions here are deplorable. The US has been destroyed, and Canada is a functioning country. We are refuges, and we are lawfully requesting to be provided refuge. We demand that you comply with Canadian and international law, and allow us to exercise our rights under those laws. We demand to be allowed entry.”

Walker replied, “Mr. Rupert, the government’s position has not changed. The government is not accepting refugee applications at this station at this time. You are not permitted entry. I am asking you once more to leave Canadian soil.”

At that, Rupert turned around to the crowd and spoke, “Let’s go!”

The crowd surged forward, pushing the chain-link fence over. The station guards tried to resist, and were quickly overpowered. The crowd moved past the customs and immigration building, and spread out through the city of Sarnia.

What happened next was utter mayhem. The crowds began looting stores in the central business district. A curious aspect of the looting, however, was that, in many instances, once a looter had removed a sizable item from a store, it was quickly abandoned, left on the ground. The looters realized that, away from their homes, they had no permanent place to take the booty. It transpired that much of the looting was simply for looting’s sake, not for the spoils. About all they kept with them was food items taken from grocery stores.

After the looting of stores, the marauders moved on to residential areas. Some residents attempted to defend themselves, and were killed. What followed next was reminiscent of the Rape of Nanking. The marauders invaded home after home, raping and killing.

The invaders were well equipped with handheld radios. Toward evening, the group migrated to the east side of town. Canada still had operating motor vehicles and fuel. These were commandeered by the group.

Back at the border crossing, thousands more refugees were arriving. As had been the case with the just-preceding group, these arrivals were well armed. They streamed across the border and headed for the east side of the city.

Within a few minutes of the start of the invasion, word of it was reported to Ottawa. The Prime Minister was notified of the invasion, first by border crossing staff and then by Sarnia Police. Incredibly, he was not informed of the fact that recent arrivals to the crowd were armed. He assumed, therefore, that the issue was a civil disturbance, not an armed invasion. As a civil disturbance, it was a matter for the Ministry of Public Safety, not the Minister of Defence. The issue, as he perceived it, concerned Border Law Enforcement, a law enforcement, or policing function, not a military function. He immediately called the Minister of Public Safety, informed him of the situation, and requested him to respond. The Minister of Public safety immediately marshalled his resources. By evening, some of them were arriving at Sarnia. They were not at all prepared for what confronted them. They were outmanned and outgunned.

By the next morning, the true nature of the situation was known. Canada had experienced a well-organized invasion by survivors in the United States. They had pillaged Sarnia and raped and murdered its citizens. They had assembled on the east side of the city.

Long before the scheduled the ten o’clock meeting of the Cabinet, many telephone discussions and impromptu meetings transpired. By the time that the meeting began, everyone was quite aware of the situation.

It was generally concluded that the Prime Minister had made a serious error in assessing the nature of the refugee crisis. Had he listened to the Defence Minister, the Rape of Sarnia, as the incident was now being called, would not have occurred. Rather than make any attempt to defend his reasoning or actions, he immediately turned the meeting over to the Defence Minister.

“Honorable Ministers,” he began, “Canada is under siege. What we saw yesterday is just the tip of the iceberg. There are between one and two hundred million survivors of the war in the United States who, once they realize that Canada is a functioning country, will attempt to gain entry. They are extremely well armed, and will not hesitate, as we have seen very well, to use force to accomplish their objective. We have a choice to make. Either we give Canada to them, or we defend it. The halfway approach of hearing and responding to refugee requests will not work. That process, which worked fine in peacetime, would be of absolutely no effect in stopping the imminent invasion. There are simply too many – vastly more than could have been imagined when the regulations for handling refugees were enacted. The approach of appeasement will not work. The US survivors pose an existential threat to Canada. They will soon be a force of at least a hundred million starving but well-armed, desperate people. There will soon be no food or wildlife left in the United States. They know that we have food and are still a functioning industrial nation. The human instinct for survival is intensely strong. There are far too many survivors for us to accommodate. If we try to do so, we will perish. They will be coming for us. We have but two options: give what we have to them, or defend ourselves.

“My proposal to you, my urgent request, is to defend our country. If you agree, my plan for doing so is as follows. First, assemble a force of troops around Sarnia and seal it off, so that the invaders are prevented from moving beyond there. Second, move on them and drive them back across the Blue Water Bridge. The invaders are organized and well armed, but we are better organized and better organized. Not to mention better trained, better equipped, and better disciplined. We are of vastly greater size than this initial group, but we are of vastly smaller size than the population from which it came. If we are to survive as a nation, we must take aggressive, immediate action to defend our borders, while we still can. Second, deploy contingents, of substantial size, to all border crossings. Third, rehabilitate the national railroad system so that it can be used to support intensive monitoring and control of the southern Canadian border. Fourth, take immediate steps to conduct coastal patrols of all ocean, Great-Lake and St. Lawrence River coasts. Fifth, take immediate steps to implement the PMS plan, but with a major provision, namely, that all cities established and supported by Canada under the plan will be settled by Canadian citizens.

“Honorable Ministers, the floor is now open for discussion of this proposal.”

The discussion did not last long. In the end, the decision was unanimous to defend Canada. After the meeting, the Defence Minister deployed troops to Sarnia.

The invaders were repelled as quickly as they arrived. Armed resistance was met with lethal force. All of the invaders were either killed or herded back across the border.

In the after-action report of the Sarnia Incident, the outstanding unresolved issue is why the group attacked. Their mission was suicidal. Was it sheer desperation? From the number of handheld radios, the group was evidently controlled or supervised by others. Were they directed to attack, as a probe to determine the nature of Canada’s defenses? Some of the invaders were interrogated, but no insight was gained concerning the motive for the futile attack.

The significant outcomes of the Sarnia Incident were the firm resolve to defend Canada’s borders, the decision to populate the cities to be established along the coasts with Canadian citizens, and the decision to move expeditiously to implement the PMS in the Western Hemisphere.

Development of a Border Control System

The vision underlying the PMS plan was that, except for Canada, the interior of the North American continent would be wild, with urban and rural settlements all along the coasts south of the Canadian southern border. The concept was that people would be able to move freely between the urban, rural and wild areas, at will. This concept could work only if the total population was low, so that the population in the three types of area were in equilibrium with, on average, the same number of people moving to and from the various area types. This concept would not work at all under the present condition of hundreds of millions of people in a war-torn interior, most of whom wanted desperately to relocate to functional urban-rural areas. For the concept to work, the human population in the wild area would have to be low, on the order of a million people. It was understood that realization of this vision would take some time.

The Task Force realized full well that the only way that the population of the interior to stabilize to a low level was for the policy of no-industrial-activity to be implemented. The most effective and efficient way of implementing this policy was to prohibit the use of industrial-scale energy within the interior. To enforce this policy would require an effective system of monitoring and control.

Prior to the Sarnia Incident, the plan was to wait until the population of North American survivors decreased substantially from its level of several hundred million just after the war. It was now realized, however, that passively waiting for this to happen was not an option. First, the southern border of Canada must be defended and second, steps must be taken to neutralize industrial activity in the US, very quickly.

The major problem facing the rapid implementation of a monitoring and control system is the long distances from southern Canada to the rest of the continent. The effectiveness of modern precision-guided weapon such as UAVs (“drones”), cruise missiles, rockets and smart bombs involves the use of sophisticated navigation and communication systems, such as the US Global Positioning System (GPS) and the Russian Global Navigation Satellite System (GLONASS), and the European Union’s Galileo system. These systems rely on high-bandwidth radio communications in the VHF, UHF and SHF frequency bands, which are all line-of-sight. Since the war, only the Russian system was available.

For operation of drones, access to the Russian satellite system was essential. Without it, line-of-sight communication is severely limited. For an antenna of height two meters, for example, the line-of-sight distance is about five miles, and the radio horizon is just a little farther. For an antenna at 3,000, such as from a repeater on a drone, the line-of-sight distance and radio horizon are about 200 kilometers. While the latter could be used to support surveillance and control of Canada’s southern border, it would be useless for support of surveillance and control of the entire continent.

Viktor was contacted to obtain assurance that Canada would have access to the Russian satellite navigation system. This assurance was provided, without hesitation.

With this assurance, Canada began work in earnest on production of surveillance and armed drones capable of reaching any point in North America from the southern Canadian border.

In this endeavor, the Canadian military was not starting from scratch. It already possessed a manufacturing capability for producing surveillance drones, armed drones, and PGMs for short-range use, and that capability had survived the war. It requested design plans from Russia for long-range models, and was provided them. It quickly ramped up its production facilities to produce these weapons for short-range, intermediate-range, and long-range use.

Work began immediately on construction of a line of monitoring and control stations all along the southern Canadian border. Within weeks, a capability existed to monitor and control the entire border to a distance of about one hundred kilometers from the border. That capability was quite adequate not only to neutralize detected industrial activity in that area, but also to detect and neutralize any sizable group of potential invaders, such as had attacked Sarnia.

Within a few months, intermediate-range and long-range drones were available. The process of neutralizing industrial activity everywhere in North America was underway.

Work proceeded on the building of a large fleet of ocean coastal patrol boats, sufficient in size to eventually monitor and control all ocean coastal areas and all navigable rivers in North America.

Preparation of City Kits

Concurrent with its program of producing a system for monitoring and control, Canada launched an ambitious program for developing all of the equipment and supplies needed to establish self-sufficient cities of about 50,000 people and naval stations and fuel depots. The plan was to establish about 125 of these cities along the coasts of North America. The equipment and supplies sufficient for a city of 50,000 people would be bundled into a kit. After six months, a prototype kit had been developed. It was installed on the coast of New Brunswick, southwest of Saint John. Within two months, it was a fully functioning totally self-sufficient city. The energy source was a floating nuclear power station.

The goal was to produce ten complete city kits each month. At that level of production, kits would be available to supply 125 cities in just over a year. The prototype design was modified slightly to take into account the St. John experience, and full-scale production was soon underway.

Work began immediately on rehabilitation of the damaged or destroyed sections of the national railroad. Within a month, these sections had been repaired or alternative routes built. Since the railway was an important component of the national defense system, resources were readily available to support the reconstruction, along with some extensions.

Progress on Rewilding North America

Because of the massive number of guns and ammunition owned by US citizens, it was not possible to protect most wildlife from slaughter. In the first few months after the war, a massive annihilation of wildlife occurred in the region south of the Canadian border.

After the population declined to low levels, a regulation was passed that firearms could not be used to kill wildlife. Any killing of wildlife had to be done with primitive weapons, such as bows and arrows, spears, knives, slings and snares. This regulation was enforced using the monitoring and control system. As the population in the interior declined, less time was spent monitoring and controlling industrial activity, and more time in monitoring and controlling the use of firearms.

The bison herds had been protected from harm, and were now released to the Great Plains. In the great slaughter of wildlife that occurred after the start of the war, many large mammalian species were virtually exterminated. Efforts commenced to reintroduce these species by relocating animals from Canada.

The Rapid Collapse of the Former United States

The PMS concept for North America was that the interior of the continent would be rewilded. This meant that industrial activity would not be permitted there. With the US national electric power grids out and petroleum supplies soon exhausted, most industrial activity ceased, and it did not resume. It had been expected that there would be efforts to restore industrial activity in locations that could restore power, such as hydroelectric and nuclear power plants. This did not happen. The Canadian military had been assigned the role of neutralizing industrial activity in the continental interior, should it arise. It did not arise. In the chaos that erupted, the survivors were unorganized and fighting for their lives. They made no substantial, organized efforts to rebuild.

As time passed, it became evident to Canada that most of the survivors in the US were doomed, destined to kill or be killed by one another. There was not going to be a national recovery, or even substantial subnational ones. The Canadian military did not have to neutralize industrial activity in the continental interior, because the fractionated, fragmented survivors did the job for them. They were too busy killing each other off to tend to reconstruction and recovery.

In addition to neutralizing industrial activity in the wild zone, the military was responsible for national defense of Canada. A few gangs in the northern US made forays into Canada, such as at Sarnia. Those attacks were efficiently repelled.

Without access to industrial-scale energy, it was not possible for any sizable threats to Canadian security to arise below the border. By the end of a year, the surviving population had stabilized to on the order of a million people. The rapid speed at which the US population collapsed following the war was a surprise to most people. Another surprise was the fact that there were few attempts to restore damaged energy sources or industrial operations.

As part of the plan to establish a wild zone in the internal portion of North America, the Canadian military would neutralize industrial activity that it detected in that region. Rather amazingly, very little effort to restore industrial facilities and resume industrial activity was observed, even though this might have been feasible in a number of places. At one point, the Minister of Defence discussed this fact with Joel, and he asked Joel to analyze the situation. He asked Joel to provide insight on three issues: (1) why did the US government choose not to prepare for the aftermath of nuclear war; (2) why did the survivors in the US exercise so little effort in trying to rebuild; and (3) why was the collapse so fast in the US compared to other countries.

The issue that the Minister wished to understand better was why Canada immediately decided to rebuild and proceeded to do so, whereas no similar effort was attempted in any part of the United States. Had such attempts been made in the continental interior, they would have been suppressed by the military, but the fact was that they did not occur. The military was prepared to execute its mission to neutralize industrial activity internal to the continent, but almost no such activity arose. There was lots of activity, to be sure, such as turf wars by warlords, but no organized effort to rebuild.

Since Joel and his team were Americans, they were in a strong position to assess the situation and identify factors associated with it. They proceeded to investigate the issues. Excerpts from the analysis conducted by the team are presented in the Appendix.

There were a number of factors that explained the US survivors’ lack of effort to rebuild and the very rapid collapse. The major factors were the fragility of the complex industrial system, the extreme overpopulation of the country, and the massive number of guns and amount of ammunition possessed by the survivors. When the modern industrial system was damaged substantially by the war, it collapsed catastrophically. Without that system, the country could no longer provide food to the survivors. Even though the damage to the US had been substantial, there were still a massive number of survivors – on the order of perhaps two hundred million. The country was so overpopulated that, without industrial-society levels of food, it could support only a very small percentage of the survivors. Desperate for food, the survivors turned on each other. Because of mass immigration, the country was highly ethnically fractionated, and large ethnic groups did not attempt to cooperate but instead attacked each other. So much violence ensued in the collapse that it was impossible for the survivors to focus attention on organizing and rebuilding.

One aspect of the collapse that concerned Joel was the fact that the planned coastal urban-rural area would include both Canadians and Americans. Canada could impose population control on Americans, but it would be unable to do so on its own people. As things turned out, this possibility did not become a problem. It was not necessary to impose population control measures, other than education, on anyone. The cities were populated by Canadians, and the rural areas mainly by Americans. The urban dwellers had the low birth rates that characterize economically developed societies. The rural dwellers had the low birth rates that characterize a broken people.

Building of Coastal Cities

After a year had passed, and the surviving population had stabilized to a low level, work began on construction of the coastal cities. The new cities were located where cities had existed previously. With the depopulation of the US, those cities were now mostly abandoned, yet, with the passage of just a year, many buildings and other infrastructure remained in usable condition. A second reason for using the same locations was that, historically, cities were established at the most favorable locations available along the coast, such as locations on a river or having a good natural harbor.

As soon as the chain of cities along the ocean coasts extended to the Isthmus of Panama, work would proceed on extending the PMS to include South America.

Vacation Plans

Canada is a cold place. While many Canadians thrive on cold weather, many of them find it difficult to bear. In winter the days are short. Summers are short, lasting basically the two months of July and August. By the end of September, the frosts have arrived and many trees have lost their leaves.

In recent times, many of the immigrants to Canada moved there in the hope of eventually moving to the United States. While it is easy for illegal aliens to enter the United States, and while the US accepted about three million immigrants – legal and illegal – each year, the demand to enter the US was very great, and there was much competition for resident visas. Unlike many countries, the United States did not have a merit-based system for granting resident visas. Getting in was largely a matter of luck, particularly the good fortune of having a relative already living there. In fact, starting in 1990, the US government made a parody of its immigration system by granting 55,000 visas on a lottery basis, each year. American citizenship was considered of so little value by the government that it simply gave it away, at random.

Because the winters in Canada were so long and cold, many Canadians lived for their next vacation. Many traveled to the US coastal states, particularly South Carolina and Florida, and many traveled to the Caribbean islands. As soon as it was known that the coastal settlements of the PMS would be populated by Canadians, much interest was expressed in participating.

Because of the ambitious programs of building weapons, synfuel plants, railroads, monitoring stations, and city kits, there was much work available. Times were prosperous. Nevertheless, many Canadians expressed resentment at the fact that they were working hard to build cities to be constructed in warm, faraway places, that most of them would never be able to inhabit.

Prior to the war, the population of Canada was about 38 million people. After the war, it was about 30 million. The population of 125 coastal cities of average size 50,000 is 6.25 million. The proportion of Canadians who would be able to live in the coastal cities, in warm climates, was a relatively small proportion of Canada’s population of 30 million.

Because of the strong interest in migrating to the coastal cities, the government set up a registration system. The system specified what jobs were needed in the cities. People had to apply for the jobs. Because of the intense demand, it was impractical for the government to award jobs strictly on the basis of merit – an initial attempt to do so elicited cries of elitism and classism. Of those qualified applicant within each job category, eighty percent of the positions were awarded to the best-qualified applicants, and twenty percent were awarded to randomly-selected, but fully qualified, applicants.

The governmental system to be used in the coastal cities was quite different from Canadian government. Educational programs were conducted to inform people of the differences. The basic structure of the government – legislative, executive and judicial – would be the same. The system of law, however, would not be English common law (case law, precedence-based law, judge-based law), but Roman civil law, based on legal codes and statutes. The political-economic system would be eco-socialism. There would be no private ownership of the means of production. No one would be allowed to own anything except movable personal property. Everyone would be provided a minimum income. Basic health care would be free. Education would be free and mandatory for eight years, and free and merit-based beyond that. There would be no charging of interest. Industrial activity would be permitted only in cities. This restriction included agriculture – agriculture, including crops and livestock, was restricted to cities. The rural areas would contain small settlements. Horses and dogs would be allowed in rural areas, but no other domesticated animals. The wild areas would contain no permanent settlements. Protection under the law would be provided within the urban and rural areas, but not in the wild areas. The state would not exercise a monopoly on the use of force in wild areas. There would be no jails or prisons. Lawbreakers would be counseled, instructed or treated, as appropriate. If city residents persisted in illegal behavior, they would be relocated to the rural areas. If rural residents persisted in illegal behavior, they would be relocated to the wild areas.

To promote physical and mental health, access to cell phones and computers was restricted to use for authorized purposes by military, business and educational organizations. Use was not authorized for recreational or social activities.

After learning the details on the nature of life in the coastal cities, many people had second thoughts about relocating. Many liked capitalism – the opportunity to own and amass property and the means of production, to charge rents and interest.

Construction of the coastal cities began a year after the war, proceeding down the Atlantic coast and continuing clockwise around the North American continent. Work proceeded on construction of the two-way rail line along the coast and along the Mississippi River. The planned schedule of constructing about ten cities a month proceeded as planned, and the ring of cities around North America was completed, along with the rail line, within a year. The patrol-boat system along the ocean coasts and navigable rivers was also completed and operational.

Life in the New World

The PMS always had a dual goal – to establish a system in which human beings could live high-quality lives in a rich biosphere. There was little doubt that the steps that had been taken to depopulate the interior of North America would soon contribute significantly to the goal of a rich biosphere for the entire planet. The big question was whether people would lead happy, meaningful lives in the new system.

Coastal cities were populated as soon as they were ready for occupancy. Comprehensive surveys were conducted on citizen satisfaction and quality of life. The results were compared by many variables, such as city, rural area, gender, age, family status, education and occupation. Comparisons were made between people in people in the coastal cities and people back in Canada. Right from the beginning, there was a pronounced difference in the quality of life, as measured by many variables. People in the coastal cities were happier, more satisfied with life, less depressed, and healthier than similar people in Canada. The difference was apparent right from the beginning, and persisted.

People were free to travel anywhere they pleased, including urban and rural areas and Canada. They were discouraged from, but not prohibited from, traveling to wild areas, for their own personal safety. There was a substantial amount of rail traffic among the cities, for several reasons. First, because cities were of relatively small size, about 50,000 people, no city could produce all of the goods desired by the population. Each city was self-sufficient, and produced all of the basic necessities. Hence, many of the goods and services produced in the cities, such as food, clothing, housewares, hardware and utilities, were the same. Beyond this, cities specialized in the types of goods and services they provided, and the specialized goods differed. For example, one city might produce guitars, another might produce wristwatches; another may produce high-end camping equipment; another might produce fine woolen sweaters; and another may produce fine archery equipment. One city might have access to particularly fine ocean beaches, another to lakes and streams that are good for camping, hunting and fishing, and another may be close to mountains that are good for hiking and climbing. One might specialize in Cajun cuisine and another in French cuisine. One might have a university that specializes in music, and another a university that specializes in civil engineering.

After the population of the continental interior declined, there were still a substantial number of survivors. With the population at low levels, these people were now welcome to move to the urban and rural areas, if they wished (but not to Canada, without official permission, if they were not Canadian citizens). This they did. In addition to the predominant Canadian population, the population of the coastal cities reflected the ethnic characteristics of the local region as it existed prior to the war.

The rail line encircled the continent below the Canadian southern border. At an average speed of 70 kilometers per hour (including stops), a train would cover the 20,000 km length of the line in 286 hours, or about 12 days. Sufficient trains operated to arrive and depart each city twice a day. A person in any coastal city could travel to any other coastal city on the continent within six days.

People enjoyed the experience of visiting diverse cultures and diverse geographic and ecological regions, and tourism among coastal cities soon flourished. Hotels sprang up at cities all along the rail line, and tourism became a substantial recreational activity.

In addition to passenger traffic, the rail line facilitated trade among the cities. Specialized items and resources that were not available in any city were obtained from Canada and delivered via the rail line.

With the completion of the rail line and the naval fuel depots along the coasts, a fundamental change had occurred in the infrastructure. Previously, long-haul air transportation had not been feasible because of the absence of refueling stations at destination. Now, fuel depots existed all along the coasts and along the Mississippi River. As soon as the fuel depots were operational, work began on rehabilitating or constructing airstrips near each fuel depot. Military air transport from Canada was now reestablished. There were calls from residents of the coastal cities to allow air transport of civilians and cargo. This request was denied, except for use of aircraft for recreational purposes (flying for pleasure or transport of tourists, sportsmen or adventurers to remote rural recreational areas). No compelling reason was seen how this might improve the quality of human life or the quality of the biosphere, or the effectiveness of the PMS. It would impose ecological costs without having any associated benefits.

All of the cities, rural areas, and wild areas of the city-state were under the jurisdiction of the city-state, considered as a political entity. Persons in a particular area were subject to the laws and regulations of the city-state and of that area, with the city-state laws taking precedence over local laws. They were not free to restrict travel or trade, or to wage war on each other. They were not free to secede. The governmental form of the city-state was a democratic republic, with the seat of government periodically moving from one city to another. [The city-state government is described in detail in the author’s book, A New World Order.]

The basic concept of the PMS was a single global external political power and a number of city-states. Each city-state was comprised of three types of areas, according to land use: urban areas (cities), in which a full range of modern industrial activity exists; rural areas, in which there were small settlements but no industrial activity; and wild areas, in which there was no industrial activity and no permanent settlements. In the case of North America, the single global external political power was represented by Canada, and the remainder of the continent comprised a single city-state. That city-state was comprised of the linear urban-rural band that circumscribed the continent below the southern Canadian border, and the interior of the continent, which was wild.

Because of the fact that the PMS was a brand-new concept and implementation, some experimentation was undertaken. The major “experiment” was Canada’s role as a surrogate for Russia. Another experiment was the permission to use hydroelectric power in some places. Another experiment was the decision to allow two types of rural areas: ones with no industrial activity at all, and others with limited use of mechanized vehicles.

Chapter 5. Some Aspects of Life Under the Planetary Management System: Life in Urban Areas (Cities)

By the end of the second year after the war, a basic version of the planetary management system had been installed in North America. In North America, the PMS consisted of four components: Canada, a surrogate for Russia, the external political power that monitored and controlled activity on the continent; the cities, or urban areas, along the coast; the rural areas along the coast; and the wild area internal to the continent.

The entire urban-rural system was connected by the rail line that crossed Canada, ran from Winnipeg to New Orleans, and encircled the continent south of Canada.

A city-state could include a number of cities. The plan was to have about 125 cities of average population 50,000 along the coast. The rationale for this population size was that a 50-megawatt floating nuclear power reactor could supply electrical and thermal energy to a city of population in the range 50,000 to 200,000, and that was the size reactor that had been distributed as part of the program to provide small nuclear reactors to the world, in the years just before the war. The design was standardized, and many of these reactors were available.

With respect to city population size, 50,000 is the size of a livable city, where people can walk to many places in not too long a time and commute times by bicycle or tram are short. It is a size that can support industrial activity. The size can be a little smaller, say, 35,000 and still support light industry. There are substantial fixed costs associated with a town, however, such as minimal levels of public services such as utilities, administration and police. Much smaller than 35,000 and a town may be a good place to live, but there will not be much industrial activity.

It was planned that each city would be self-sufficient with respect to the basic necessities, such as energy, food, clothing and shelter. As used in discussing the PMS, the term “city” and the descriptor “urban” had a particular meaning. All industrial activity, including agriculture, would take place in cities. That is, the city area, or urban area, would include all of the farms required to support the population of the urban and rural areas. The farms would be contiguous parts of the urban area, not distributed as separate entities over rural areas. The parts of the urban areas having farms could be described as periurban.

The rural areas would contain small settlements and camping grounds. In these areas there would be no industrial activity, facilities or equipment. The term “industrial” refers to agriculture and to the technology of the industrial revolution that developed after about 1750. No electricity. No internal or external combustion engines. No firearms.

Every city would provide for all of the basic functions associated with modern city life, including physical infrastructure, government, utilities, transportation, communication, security, health facilities, education facilities, and commercial enterprises such as light manufacturing and retail stores. These functions would be sufficiently comprehensive that the city could continue to exist indefinitely without any support from outside sources, except for energy, of which more will be said later. In addition to these basic functions, each city would specialize in one or more functions that, while not available in every small city, would be available in a large city or large collection of cities, such as a country. These specialty products would be traded among the cities, and the services would be available by travel among the cities over the rail line.

The following list describes, in summary form, many of the basic facilities and functions that would be present in every city. These facilities and functions provide goods and services that are needed or desired by a large number of people, and that can be produced using a low level of technology. For example, it is reasonable for every city to have tailors, but it is not reasonable for every city to have a factory that can manufacture integrated circuits (computer “chips”), or a factory that produces fine violins, or a university that grants PhD degrees in mathematical statistics. The construction of such facilities requires a major investment of technology and infrastructure, or, at an efficient level of operation, such facilities produce far more of the product or service than is needed by a single city.

There are many books on the design of cities, such as Lewis Mumford’s The City in History and the works of many writers inspired by Mumford. A key ingredient in a livable city is smallness, as discussed in Leopold Kohr’s The Breakdown of Nations, Ernst Friedrich Schumacher’s Small Is Beautiful: A Study of Economics As If People Mattered and Kirkpatrick Sale’s Human Scale Revisited. With an average size of about 50,000, the cities of the North American PMS would satisfy the “small size” requirement of many writers on cities.

1. Infrastructure. Cities are designed to be esthetically appealing and functionally convenient. The city plan corresponds to a stable population (averaging about 50,000). For a stable population, the design focuses on permanence, on road layouts, buildings and facilities that would last for a long time. With a modest size of 50,000 many places can be reached by walking or short vehicle rides. Because cities include farmed areas, they are less densely populated than prewar cities, and covere a larger area. All residential buildings would include a sizable lawn and garden. The city has many parks, green zones and neighborhood recreation and sport facilities. Walking paths and cycling paths cover all city areas. All cities contain a waterfront / harbor area, railroad station and airport. All cities contain much terrain above six meters in altitude, and some above 60 meters in altitude, to protect much of the city in the event of substantial sea rise from global warming.

2. Government. The city government is based on an ecological-socialist political-economic philosophy, or eco-socialism. There are three branches of government (legislative, executive, judicial). Representative democracy and direct democracy. The legal system is Roman law. There are no prisons or jails (counseling, instruction, and exile). No private ownership of anything other than movable personal property. No charging of interest or rents except by the government. The public finance system is funded by a value-added tax, by interest on loans from the government, and by fees or rents paid for use of government property (which includes all land and buildings). Every adult receives a minimum income, sufficient to cover basic food, clothing and shelter. Guaranteed merit-based employment provides the opportunity for additional income.

3. Utilities. Initially, the source of industrial power for most cities is nuclear power using small nuclear reactors (SMRs). Liquid fuels for internal combustion engines are produced on a sustainable, carbon-neutral basis by synthetic fuel plants using wood from forests as the feedstock. Hydroelectric power may be used if it does very little ecological damage to natural rivers. Conventional water treatment and sewage treatment are used. All waste is to be converted to biofriendly form.

4. Transportation. To keep road traffic at low levels and slow, all motorized vehicles are owned by the state. Most are for government use, with a small number of them leased or rented to the general public. Public transportation by bus or tram is available for free within a ten-minute walk for all areas of the city, at frequent intervals. Taxi service is available for free for all disabled and elderly persons.

5. Communication. Each city has cellular telephones and internet communication; AM, FM and shortwave radio station; television station, postal service. Use of smart phones and computers is severely restricted for persons under the age of 18.

6. Security. Internal security is implemented by police armed with billy clubs, external security by militia armed with firearms. The primary roles of the military are to neutralize industrial activity outside of the urban and rural areas and to repel any military attacks against the urban and rural areas. Military personnel are under the jurisdiction of the Canada, not of the city-state or of the city. The rationale for this is that Canada has responsibility for implementing the PMS in South America, and it is necessary that it possess military resources to send there. But for that need, the military would have been under the jurisdiction of the city-state. An alternative would be for two militaries, one of Canada and the other of the city-state. That was considered problematic. At age 18, all persons (male and female) serve one year of basic training in the military, but are not required to engage in combat, which is performed by a volunteer military force (which may be joined after the one year of compulsory service). Citizens are granted full majority rights (e.g., right to vote, right to make contracts, right to own property, right to consume alcohol, right to gamble, right to use smart phones, right to broadcast radio messages, right to hold political office, right to operate motorized vehicles, right to marry, right to have children, right to income, right to employment, right to accept or refuse medical treatment, right to information) upon completion of the one year of military services. An all-hazard fire department is staffed by a combined professional and volunteer force. Permits for weapons are issued by the police. Military personnel are subject to postings at any place, including outside of the city-state, such as outposts in South America. Military personnel receive basic training in land, sea and air operations. The military is a single unified command, i.e., there are no separate army, navy and air force service branches (although military personnel will specialize in these areas).

7. Health Facilities. Free basic health-care services are provided by local clinics and a general hospital. Extraordinary or discretionary medical treatment may be purchased directly or via insurance. The Public Health Service monitors the health in all areas (urban, rural, wild) and implements public health measures such as monitoring and control of water sources, requirements for vaccines, quarantines and other travel restrictions, and other measures deemed appropriate to protect the public’s health.

8. Educational Facilities. Neighborhood elementary schools are located in all neighborhoods, within easy walking distance for children. Several middle schools are located within a ten-minute tram ride. There is one high school, centrally located, within a twenty-minute tram ride for most students. Because the travel times to the high school from farms, other outlying facilities, and rural settlements may exceed twenty minutes, dormitory (boarding-school) facilities are available. One accredited liberal-arts college and one or more community colleges (for vocational training and certification). Higher education in mathematics, science and engineering is available only in selected cities.

9. Commercial Enterprises. Each city has a wide range of retail establishments, including newspaper, printer, bookbinder, library, hotels, grocery stores (supermarkets and specialty markets), bakeries, restaurants, caterers, houseware, hardware, clothing, shoes, dry goods, sundries, bookstores, furniture and home furnishings, sporting goods, music stores, game / toy stores, pet stores, photographer, veterinary, personal care (hairdressers, barber shops, fitness centers), flower stores / garden stores / plant nurseries / landscapers / lawn and garden care, cafés, bars, night clubs, dance halls, pool halls, tailors, hobby stores, jewelry and art stores, upholsterers, electrical devices (radios, televisions, music players, telephones, smart phones, computers, cameras), dance studio, private schools, music store, musical instrument store, recording studio, martial arts, yoga, bicycle store, weapons, air and sea pilot training, farm supply store, crematorium, boats and marine supplies, vehicle repair, farm supply, horse tack, livery stables.

10. Light Industry. Each town has farms and a full complement of agricultural equipment and facilities; a full-service machine shop; electrical supply and repair shop; plumbing, heating and cooling services; a foundry, lumber yard, brewery, winery, distillery, and cheese factory.

There are many specialty goods and services that are associated with modern urban life for which it is not practical for every town to possess a capacity for producing or offering, because the level of technology required to produce them is very high, or the total demand is low, or the local area does not possess the natural resources to do so. Examples include manufacturing of specialty items such as musical instruments, or high-technology items such as computers and cell phones, or universities that offer degrees in highly specialized fields, or locations that offer white-water rafting. If not available locally, these goods and services are available to residents of all cities through trade or travel to other cities.

The following list includes examples of manufacturing or service facilities that exist in few cities.

1. Electronics manufacture. Cell phones, computers, radios, music players, x-ray machines, nuclear-magnetic resonance machines, ultrasound machines, laser equipment.

2. Musical instruments.

3. Chemicals.

4. Hazardous materials, such as explosives or radiological materials.

5. Medical equipment and supplies.

6. Educational equipment and supplies.

7. Foundry.

8. Engineering services.

9. Mechanized vehicles (bicycles, tricycles, motorcycles, cars, buses, trams, trucks, tractors, combines, boats, aircraft, snowmobiles, railroad engines and cars) and supplies.

10. Horse-drawn vehicles.

11. Horse tack and farm equipment.

12. Personal weapons (firearms, bows, arrows, knives, spears)

13. Tools and dies; machine-shop equipment.

14. Other specialized equipment.

15. Specialty clothing.

16. Sports equipment (canoes, kayaks, river rafts, skis, climbing equipment, paragliding and hang-gliding equipment, camping, hunting and fishing equipment and supplies).

17. Specialty hardware.

18. Textile manufacturing equipment.

19. Shoe manufacturing equipment.

20. Ceramics manufacturing equipment.

21. Laboratory equipment and supplies.

22. Major universities; specialty colleges.

23. Eyeglass frames and lenses; prosthetic devices; medical equipment and supplies.

24. Casino gambling.

25. Home appliances and mattresses.

26. Major entertainment arenas.

27. Synthetic fuel plants.

28. Book publishing.

29. Wide-area computer network.

30. Construction materials, such as bricks.

31. Metal (in various forms, such as sheet, wire, rebar).

32. Glass (windows, bottles, specialty glass).

33. Paper and cardboard.

34. Office and school equipment and supplies.

35. Recreational activities that require special natural settings, such as white-water canoeing and river rafting, snow skiing, mountain climbing, safaris.

36. Minting and printing of money and specialty documents, and manufacture of equipment and supplies for doing so.

Life in the urban areas was of high quality. People had access to a rich and varied range of goods and services associated with modern urban life. Everyone could participate fully, to the limit of his interests and abilities.

Chapter 6. Some Aspects of Life Under the Planetary Management System: Life in Rural Areas

While urban life enables human beings to press the limits of their interests and capabilities in some areas, it is not enough. Some people prefer a simpler existence in rural areas, with a lower density of people and greater access to nature. Some urban dwellers enjoy occasional stays in rural areas, for recreation.

Industrial activity is not permitted in rural areas. This includes agriculture (crops and livestock). No domesticated animals except horses and dogs.

Perhaps the most striking feature of rural areas is the absence of electricity. Homes are furnished with kerosene lanterns, wood-burning stoves, treadle sewing machines, wells and water pumps. All settlements over 100 people are required to have safe water provided to each home, indoor plumbing, and each home must have a septic tank. Settlements under 100 people are considered temporary, and may remain in place for only a year. Such settlements have no permanent structures. The structures are not required to have running water or indoor plumbing.

Hunting and fishing is permitted in rural areas, but only with primitive instruments. In particular, no use of firearms.

Rural areas contain unpaved trails, campsites, campgrounds, and small settlements. Settlements in rural areas outside of cities are small, such as 4,000, so that most walking trips can be reached within a reasonable walking time, of say, 20 minutes. Town sizes vary according to carrying capacity of the land and cultural preferences. Assuming an average population density of two people per hectare, a town of about 4,000 people would cover 2,000 hectares, or 20 square kilometers. The diameter of such a town, if approximately circular in shape, would be about 5 km, or about 3 miles. At a brisk walking pace of 3 miles per hour, the town could be traversed in one hour, and most trips, which tend to be local, would require substantially less time.

As is the case in urban areas, all permanent structures are built and owned by the state, for use on a permit basis.

Settlements in rural areas have access to very basic public services, such as education in one-room, combined-grade schoolhouses and medical care from “country doctors” and “visiting nurses.” The schools use the same textbooks as are used in the city, but do not provide instructional aids beyond that, such as laboratory equipment. People living in rural areas are expected to send their children to boarding schools in the city after completing four to six grades of primary school in the rural area (basic reading, writing and arithmetic education, plus a little more). People living in rural areas still qualify for basic income and a right to employment, but there are very few jobs in these areas, such as a few teachers, health-care professionals, facility maintenance personnel and park rangers, that would provide opportunities to earn more than the minimum income. Although people have a right to jobs, they are not required to be employed. Even if unemployed, they still receive the basic minimal income and the right to a home. The minimum income is quite adequate to purchase basic living supplies from general stores in the rural settlements or from stores in the city, if they choose to make a shopping trip to the city.

Except for some experimental rural areas in which mechanized vehicles are permitted, there is no industrial activity outside of cities. There are no motorized land vehicles or watercraft outside of cities, except, of course, for government or military vehicles, which are permitted to travel anywhere. Aircraft may travel over rural areas that permit mechanized vehicles, but not over rural areas that do not. There is no agriculture – no industrial production of crops or livestock. Land transportation is by foot, by horse or by wagon. Water transportation is by traditional nonmechanized (no-engine) vehicles such as raft, canoe, pirogue, kayak, rowboat or sailboat.

Chapter 7. Some Aspects of Life Under the Planetary Management System: Life in Wild Areas

While some human beings prefer the anarcho-primitivism of wild areas, addressing that desire is not the motivation for the widescale presence of such areas in the PMS. The motivation is to return much of the planet to use by nature, to protect and rehabilitate the biosphere.

In the wild areas there is no industrial activity and no permanent settlements. Human presence is permitted, but it is on a primitive level, such as the occupation of North America by nomadic Indian tribes in pre-Columbian times.

No public services are provided in wild areas, including education, health care, legal protection or public safety. (Public health services may be provided, at the option of the city-state.)

While the city-state may exercise force in wild areas, it does not claim or exercise a monopoly on the use of force. There is no protection under the law, including protection of basic human rights. If someone murders another human being in a wild are, he is not prosecuted by the city-state in charge of that area. Nomadic tribes living in wild areas are considered sovereign, and they are free to commit murder (or other crimes) and punish murder (or other crimes) within those areas as they see fit.

Killing of wildlife is permitted, but not with firearms (which are industrial artifacts), only with primitive weapons. This restriction applies even to self-defense. (Government officials, such as Park Rangers, are authorized to kill wildlife with firearms under certain circumstances.)

Chapter 8. Effect of the Colonies on the Mother Country

Because of the free movement of Canadian citizens between the coastal cities and Canada, it was not long before Canadian residents became very aware of the substantially better quality of life in the coastal areas. There was much discussion of this situation, and efforts to understand the fundamental reasons for it.

Initially, it appeared that the difference owed to the difference in climate between Canada and the coastal regions, and to the fact that much of the industrial activity in Canada was in support of the coastal settlements and the PMS in general, rather than to provide consumer goods for Canada. On further investigation, however, these hypotheses were seen to be false. First, the quality of life was high even in coastal cities in harsh climates similar to Canada, such as cities along the northern Atlantic and Pacific coasts. Second, the proportion of work effort spent in support government operations was determined to be about the same in Canada as in the coastal regions.

Eventually, it was recognized that the fundamental reason for the difference in quality of life was the nature of the socio-political systems in the two places. The system in Canada was capitalism, and the system along the coasts was eco-socialism. The differences in these two systems are profound.

A fundamental feature of capitalism is that it eventually leads to a society in which there is substantial inequality in per-capita income and wealth. The system is designed to generate much per-capita income and wealth for the owners of capital, who are relatively small in number, and little per-capita income and wealth for everyone else, who are many. The primary goal of capitalism is to generate monetary wealth by exploiting natural resources and labor. The primary goal of eco-socialism is to provide a high quality of life for human beings in a healthy biosphere.

Capitalism allows for charging of interest. Charging of interest gradually shifts ownership of property from the debtor to the creditor, promoting an increase in inequality, a small number of rich people, and a large number of poor people. Charging of interest is an exponential process that cannot continue forever in any finite system. Eventually – and this is a mathematical certainty – there must be forgiveness of loans or bankruptcies or financial collapses. Under capitalism, there is little forgiveness of loans, massive numbers of bankruptcies, and periodic financial collapses.

Capitalism allows for charging of rents. A simple example is the renting of houses, apartments and rooms. Under this system, the landlord receives income simply by virtue of his owning a rental property, while the tenant must work to earn income to pay the rent.

In the coastal cities, the planetary management system does not allow for charging of interest or for charging of rents, except by the city. It does not allow for private ownership of anything other than movable personal items.

As it gradually became evident that the reason for the low level of happiness in Canada compared to the PMS settlements was capitalism, active political movements arose to reform the governmental system of Canada. The result was a high level of social unrest and turmoil. Social activists called for the end to private banking and a prohibition on charging of interest and rents by private entities. They demanded that no private entity could charge rent on anything. They demanded an end to private ownership of real property – of land and improvements.

They petitioned that the Canadian Constitution, which is a rambling kluge of documents referencing a thousand years of British culture, tradition and precedence, be replaced by a succinct document describing the new system. They demanded an end to English common law, or precedence law, under which “the law” consisted of all possible past legal decisions that might relate to a case. Under that system, no one knew the law – not the defendant, the lawyers, the judges, the juries, or even law professors. It denied people justice and served only to enrich lawyers. They called for an end to jails and prisons.

In short, they demanded all of the things that contributed to the high level of happiness in the coastal cities. They pointed out that the coastal settlements had proved that these things would work to provide a high quality of life for people and a rich biosphere, and that they were not asking for anything more than was available to the coastal settlers.

Of course, the capitalists – the owners of the means of production, of land, of banks – would hear none of this. They thoroughly enjoyed their unearned income and were not about to give it up. They told the protesters that if they did not like things the way that they were in Canada, they should leave. Of course, the coastal cities were all populated by now, and, except for wild areas, there was no place to leave to.

The protests increased in frequency and intensity, to the point at which they were paralyzing government and causing a noticeable decrease in the nation’s cohesiveness, efficiency and sense of purpose. The social turmoil was threatening Canada’s effectiveness as Russia’s partner in maintaining a global PMS.

During the time since the plan to establish the PMS in the Western Hemisphere, Joel and his team had little of importance to do. The plan was working to establish and maintain an effective PMS. Joel had regular meetings with the Russian Ambassador, and occasional telephone discussions with Viktor. As the political situation in Canada worsened, Viktor became more and more concerned with Canada’s situation. The protestors were gaining political power. The situation was moving beyond the writing of essays, discussions and debates. Some civil disturbances had occurred, and there were calls from the bankers and other controllers of the economy to enforce special decrees under the Emergencies Act.

As the political situation worsened, other political interests, which had lain dormant since the war, began to emerge. Some politicians in Québec were calling once again for that province to separate from the rest of Canada. They resented strongly the fact that since the war, the hydroelectric plants had been out of commission, and that no efforts had been made to repair them or the regional electric power grid. They resented the fact that most of the manufacturing associated with establishing the PMS had been done in Manitoba, Ontario and Nova Scotia, and relatively little in Québec. As soon as they pressed their position, Alberta and Saskatchewan asserted their grievance that no effort had been made to replace the economic wealth formerly associated with the oil-sands industry. British Columbia expressed the view that it now saw little benefit to it for remaining in Canada, and would side with Alberta and Saskatchewan, if they separated. The Territories announced that if separation occurred, they would side with geographically proximate provinces.

Canada has seen many secessionist movements over its history. The secessionist movement of Québec has continued into relatively recent times. Because of its strong commercial ties to the United States, a proposal for Alberta to join the US as its 51^st state has been actively discussed for some time.

For the area that would eventually become Alberta and Saskatchewan, one proposal was to form a single Province of Buffalo out of the area, with Regina as its capital.

Because of its geographic and economic remoteness from Eastern Canada and its strong economic and ecological ties to the northwestern US states of Washington and Oregon, there have long been discussions of forming a separate country, often referred to as Cascadia, in that bioregion.

As the discussion proceeded, the position of the Québec separatists hardened, and became more extreme. They asserted that, to promote its territorial integrity, Labrador would be annexed. Newfoundland then announced that it would side with Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island to form a new province called Acadia. New Brunswick then announced that it had plans to annex Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont and northern New York, to increase the size of Acadia to a magnitude more comparable to that of Québec, which it now viewed as a threat; to increase territorial proximity to Ontario; and to establish a southern border that could more easily be defended. The Acadia movement announced further that, if Québec separated, then Acadia would annex all of Québec on the south bank of the St. Lawrence River.

Acadia (Acadie in French) was a colony of New France in northeastern North America that included parts of what are now the Maritime provinces, the Gaspé Peninsula and Maine to the Kennebec River.

With the prospect of disintegration of Canada looming, every province considered the advantages and disadvantages of alternative break-ups. In most provinces, sentiment was strongly in favor of one particular proposal. In Manitoba, however, sentiment was rather evenly divided between those who would remain with Canada and those who would align with Alberta and Saskatchewan in forming a large province in the Prairies. As this discussion proceeded, Ontario announced that, as part of Canada, it would move to annex all land from its current western border further west to the Churchill River, Lake Winnipeg and the Red River. The rationale was that these natural boundaries would be much easier to defend than the current piecewise-linear border.

Canada’s Prime Minister Elliot Trudeau had forged legislation that spelled out explicitly what steps were to be taken for a province to separate from the rest of Canada. What is required is a province-wide referendum, followed by negotiations with the rest of Canada, followed by a Constitutional amendment.

If these visions came to pass, what remained of Canada would be comprised of Manitoba, Ontario and Acadia, or perhaps just Ontario and Acadia. The Territories – Yukon, Northwest Territories and Nunavut – would be parts of the separated entities – Yukon with British Columbia, Northwest Territories with Alberta and Saskatchewan, and Nunavut with Manitoba.

It appeared that, politically, the country was moving to the right, and that the power of capitalists, who had little interest in the PMS at best and outright hostility to it at worst, was increasing substantially. Their political and economic interests were diametrically opposite those of the eco-socialist PMS. Viktor expressed the view that, while initially he had not viewed Canada’s capitalist, ecology-destroying views as a serious impediment to their playing a useful role in helping Russia to establish a global PMS, he was now reconsidering his view. Unless the situation improved dramatically, he did not see how Canada could continue in its role as Russia’s ally. In his concern over the situation, he told Joel that Russia had recovered substantially from the serious destruction that it had suffered in the war, and that it would soon be in a position to comfortably assume its role as the sole global political power, without Canada’s help. Joel asked Viktor what he would do, if the situation did not improve.

“Canada has done a truly remarkable job of implementing the PMS in the Western Hemisphere,” he said. “To maintain the PMS requires monitoring and control by a strong political power. Right after the war, Canada demonstrated that it was such a power, through its ability to recover from the war’s destruction. But now, it seems, Canada is in danger of falling apart. More importantly, those who promote capitalism appear to be gaining considerable strength. The basis of the PMS is eco-socialism, not capitalism. Joel, I would like you to analyze the situation and present me with options for dealing with this crisis. In view of the very cordial and mutually beneficial relationship that Canada and Russia have had until recently, I regret to say that it is my view that Canada may no longer be useful as Russia’s ally. At least, not as currently configured. If at all.”

“What if a feasible option cannot be found? An option that the capitalists agree to?”

“Joel, if it comes to that, and I hope that it does not, then Canada will be transformed in the same way that you have transformed North America south of the Canadian border. Its industry will be relocated to the ocean coasts and navigable waterways, and its interior will be depopulated. When that process is completed, Canada will no longer exist as a nation. The global PMS will be controlled solely from Russia, as was in fact the original plan, before we suffered so much damage in the war.

“Quite frankly, Joel, it seems that with all of this talk of separation, most of Canada seems hell-bent on bringing about its own dissolution, with no outside help whatsoever. Before the war, some people had asserted that the only reason Canada remained intact for so long was the fear that if it separated, the parts would be absorbed by the United States, and many Canadians are antipathetic to US culture. With the US now gone, that motivation to keep Canada intact is gone also. Most of the industry in Canada is already along the coasts of the Atlantic, the St. Lawrence River, and the Great Lakes. If Canada were to disintegrate, leaving a residual state comprised of Ontario and Acadia, that state would retain most of its industrial capacity and remain quite capable of controlling the PMS for the Western Hemisphere. The industrial capacity of Winnipeg had been a substantial part of the industrial production for development of the PMS, but the manufacturing required just for maintenance is substantially less than that required for construction, and could easily be done by Ontario, if Winnipeg were gone. It seems to me that there is now little need for a large Canada, and a transformation to a much smaller one would be beneficial. Better for the PMS. More compact and cohesive. More ethnically homogeneous.

“You know,” he continued, “the Russia-Canada alliance was very useful, but one thing that always bothered me about it is the point that Yvonne made that no country can impose population control on its own people. Since the coastal settlements of the PMS are populated mainly by Canadians, if they ever started to grow, Canada would be powerless to stop that. And, in view of the situation in Canada, it looks as if the capitalists are marshalling their resources for economic growth in Canada. That almost certainly means population growth – before the war, both Canada and the United States used massive population growth to promote economic growth. Perhaps this Russia-Canada alliance would never have lasted very long. It has served its purpose of establishing a PMS in the Western Hemisphere very well, but it may not be useful for maintaining that PMS in the long run. The global PMS needs one global power, not two.”

What Viktor was saying was gut-wrenching to Joel. He had adapted well to life in Canada. He had many relatives here. Canada was special for him. He had lost the United States, and Canada had proved to be a fine second home. Despite the recent problem with the capitalists, it was a decent, civil society. Canada’s culture suited him well. He would regret losing it. If Canada were gone, Russia would remain the sole traditional-style nation in the world. Russia has a strong culture spanning centuries, but Canada, as a strong component of the British Empire, possessed a national culture that was distinct and, in Joel’s view, worth preserving.

“OK, Viktor, I will see what I can do. I will consider some alternatives, and work up a plan.”

“That is good, Joel. I can always depend on you. I know that with your family ties you may have strong feelings about preserving Canada. Do not let those emotions sidetrack you. The fundamental issue is what works best for humanity and the biosphere, for a strong PMS.”

“I realize that, Viktor. My primary allegiance is to the PMS. You know that.”

“Yes, I do,” confirmed Viktor, and the telephone call ended.

Once again, Joel and his team had a very important mission. He assembled his team and described their next project. They analyzed the problem in detail.

There were essentially two issues to be addressed. The first was the issue of separation of provinces from Canada. It was pointed out that, if a province separated from Canada, then it would be subject to exactly the same PMS rules as the urban and rural areas along the coasts. That prospect was not acceptable to any province. They all preferred to remain as part of Canada. So, the first issue was resolved with little to-do.

The second issue was the issue of capitalism in Canada. As long as Canada was useful to Russia’s plan to establish a global PMS, and could do this for the Western Hemisphere, Russia could overlook the capitalism. Now that the PMS had been established in the Western Hemisphere, the future usefulness of Canada was substantially diminished. Russia could conduct the monitoring operation using the system that Canada had built. In short, the capitalism that still functioned in Canada was not only incompatible with the eco-socialism that was the basic political-economic system of the global PMS, but a significant threat to it. It seemed clear from Joel’s discussion with Viktor that it had to go, or Canada would go.

Capitalism had been the fundamental driver of the industrial growth that had damaged the biosphere and cause so much misery to so many people. On the other hand, it was responsible for the development of the science and technology that would now correct both of these problems. Could it be of value in the future? Should it be preserved, in some configuration?

The tremendous advantage of capitalism over other political-economic systems is the intense motivation that it provides to the entrepreneurs who convert scientific theories into practical inventions. Most of tremendous inventions of the nineteenth and twentieth century came from these entrepreneurs in capitalist, free-market countries, not from socialist or communist countries. Although capitalism operated to some extent in Russia, Canada was now the world’s last bastion of free-market capitalism, on a large scale. To destroy the last major operation of capitalism, when it had been so valuable, so essential, to the development of science and technology, could be a tremendous mistake.

After considering a variety of alternatives, the team decided that it should make a strong case to Viktor to permit capitalism to continue to operate in Canada. If so, the issue of the tremendous unhappiness caused by capitalism still had to be addressed. The fundamental essence of capitalism is the private ownership of the means of production, and the fact that the owners may keep the profits. The major drawbacks are the exploitation of workers – wage slaves – and the exploitation of nature. The team decided that the major factors causing unhappiness to people and destruction to the biosphere could be reduced substantially by making a few changes to Canada’s present system, without seriously damaging its ability to motivate invention and production.

The major feature of capitalism that led to so much dissatisfaction was the issue of unearned income, that property could generate income, such as rents on buildings and interest on loans, and that these earnings were given to the owner of the property. The landlords and bankers did not perform work for this income; they simply owned the property and were legally entitled to the income from it. While their work to build infrastructure was socially productive, their work to earn an endless stream of income from it was not. It was unearned income, income from investments rather than from work, human work, physical or mental work. The income generated by property was paid for by income earned by the renters and interest payers, through work, unless they, too, happened to be landlords and lenders. Ultimately, the income from rents and income was paid for by someone doing work.

The concept that someone was entitled to income simply because he owned something was not viewed as justifiable. It did not produce benefits for society or for the biosphere. Capitalism had been a tremendously useful tool for developing science and technology, but it had served that purpose and was now destroying the biosphere.

The team considered these concepts in detail. The central issue was to what extent a political-economic system or system component benefitted humankind and the biosphere.

If a person created and produced a song that many people enjoyed listening to, then people had no problem that the writer of the lyrics and the singer of the song would be paid an amount each time the song was performed, or each time a recording of the song was sold. If a person invented a widget that people enjoyed using, people had no problem that the inventor or manufacturer would be paid a royalty. A key issue is that the service or item was not a necessity, that the use of it was discretionary. Another is that the size of the royalty be reasonably related to the perceived benefit of the item to society and to the biosphere. Another is that most items make use of technology and infrastructure developed by society – by persons other than the inventor or manufacturer of a product or service – and that, after the inventor or producer of a product or service has been reasonably rewarded for his creativity and effort, benefits beyond that should accrue to society, which enabled it. Another is that all products and services, ultimately, are derived from nature, and benefits derived from them should accrue as much to nature – the provider, the giver – as to the exploiter of nature – the user, the taker. It was considered unreasonable to socialize the costs and privatize the benefits. It was considered unreasonable to benefit from nature if net costs were imposed on nature.

The vocation of amassing a personal fortune, or managing one’s own assets or investments, was, in and of itself, of no benefit to society. It was like the game of Monopoly, but played for real. It produced wealth by imposing massive costs on nature and the rest of society, and vesting that wealth in the capitalist, the owner of the means of production. On a large scale, capitalism had been seen to be so destructive to mankind and the biosphere that there had to be compelling arguments why it should be permitted to continue. Capitalism was a luxury that mankind and nature could no longer afford.

The major effect of these considerations is that it was not acceptable for private persons or entities to sell or charge rents for basic human necessities, such as air, water, food, clothing and shelter. Or for any other good or service considered necessary, such as basic health services, basic education, security and access to nature. Basic necessities such as these are considered to be public goods and services, not private ones.

It was reasonable that the builder of a house or factory or other infrastructure was entitled to recompense for his efforts, to cover the cost of his creativity and work to construct the facility, or to cover the cost of operations and maintenance. What was considered unreasonable was the perpetual payment of income, far exceeding the cost of the infrastructure or its perceived value to humankind and nature, exclusively to the builder or owner, and not to society and nature, which also contributed. In other words, no benefit would accrue to anyone simply by virtue of ownership. Reward for accomplishments would be related to creative content, work effort, perceived benefits and costs to society, and perceived benefits and costs to nature.

To this end, the team proposed that the following changes be made to Canada’s political and economic system.

1. Replacement of Canada’s present Constitution with a brief one, comprising a single page.

2. Replacement of the system of English Common Law (case-based law, precedence-based law, judge-made law) with Roman civil law (law based on legal codes and statutes).

3. No charging of interest on loans or other extensions of credit.

4. No charging of rents for use of property, such as industrial equipment or facilities or dwellings, except by the state.

5. Free basic health care (but not free extraordinary care).

6. Mandatory and free education to eighth grade, and free merit-based education after that.

7. A right to a minimum income.

8. A right to employment.

9. The only legal rights that corporations have are protection from fraud, theft, breach of contract and violence.

10. Patents and copyrights expire after ten years.

11. No prisons or jails. Lawbreakers will be counseled and instructed. If they continue with unacceptable behavior, they are sent to rural areas along the coast. If they continue further with unacceptable behavior, they are sent to wild areas.

12. No income tax. Abolish the income tax, both on individuals and corporations, and use only a tax on value added, i.e., a consumption tax. Impose taxes only on businesses, not on individuals. From a socialist viewpoint, taxes should be proportionate to what an individual is taking from society, i.e., on his consumption, not on what he contributes to it, as measured by income. [For more information about tax policy, see the author’s book, The Value-Added Tax: A New Tax System for the United States.]

13. Upon a person’s death, ownership of all of his property is transferred to the state.

With these changes, capitalists would still own the means of production, and be entitled to retain a reasonable portion of the return on the fruits of their labor for as long as they lived. The incentive to be creative and productive would remain strong. Large fortunes could still be amassed by successful entertainers or entrepreneurs. All that is really changed is that capitalists would be denied the opportunity to make unearned income from property (rents, interest).

These proposed changes were discussed at length in public fora, and approved by a large portion of the population. These changes would go far to improving the quality of life of residents in Canada and protecting the biosphere without killing the golden-egg goose of capitalism, its incredible incentive to create and build.

Of course, there were loud cries from bankers and property owners that the new system would cripple capitalism. Without interest, there would be no loans, they argued, and without loans, the time to develop anything would be incredibly long. No, it was countered, loans could be made from the state-owned bank. Loans would be evaluated and issued based on their perceived social value, not on their expected monetary return, whether to a private investor or public owner.

The owners of residential property cried that many people were not able to own a home, either because of insufficient income or inability to manage one. They argued that, without rentals, these people would homeless. No, the state would own all real property – land and buildings – and would be the landlord. Sufficient housing would be available for everyone, and of a variety from very inexpensive to very expensive, so that everyone could be housed in housing that accommodated their income and tastes. Everyone received a minimal income, paid by the state, of which about 20 percent would cover the lease cost of the least-expensive homes. Financial management would not be a concern – the monthly lease cost would be deducted from the monthly minimum income. In all price ranges, homes would be designed to be esthetically pleasing, such as in the Japanese Shirakawa concept.

The owners of business property argued that it made little difference in output whether assets were owned or leased (rented), and that leasing was far more efficient since the property was almost always in use, was readily available, and could be dispensed with by the lessee when no longer needed. Although there may be little economic difference, depending on the tax system, there is a tremendous social difference. If a factory is churning out goods, then the profits accrue to the property owner. If the owner is a private individual, he can obtain this profit without expending any effort, even though the purchasers of the goods must expend effort to earn the income to pay for the goods. Everything that is used to manufacture goods – the infrastructure, the buildings and machines, the technology, the labor, the raw materials or intermediate goods, the energy – is ultimately produced by society using raw materials or energy from nature. While it seems reasonable that income should be related to work effort expended and creativity, there is no compelling argument, in the context of the conceived planetary management system, why some, such as inheritors or acquirers of wealth, should receive income even though they expend no mental or physical work, while others must toil to receive income. The socialist concept is that people should be rewarded by society proportionate to their contribution to society, not for their success in taking from it.

Of all of the protests, perhaps the loudest were from the legal profession. Under Canada’s precedence-based law system of English common law, no one knew what the law was. Lawyers expended countless hours in high-cost research to search for legal precedents that might apply to a case. Cases were often won by the party able to fund the most effort on legal research and afford the best lawyers who could make the most convincing arguments to a judge based on an amorphous body of law. Many cases were won by the wealthier side, simply because the other party could not afford the massive costs of legal defense under this Byzantine system. Under Roman civil law, lawyers were almost irrelevant – a judge, versed in well-defined legal codes and statutes, decided a case based on those explicit standards. The basis for a ruling was explained by the judge to the parties and their lawyers, not by the lawyers to the judge. Canada’s lawyers stood to lose massive amounts of income under this change. Their profession would be decimated, because it would instantly become almost irrelevant. The massive legal fees would be gone. The long legal researches of precedence would be gone. Many members of Parliament were lawyers. The public came out strongly in support of the measure. Had it not been for the fact that there was really no choice but to accept this change, it would never have been accepted.

To summarize, the proposed changes would make a very big difference to people whose incomes were unearned, and little difference to others. Since interest and rents could not be charged by private entities, real estate firms and private banks would no longer exist. People could still make fortunes from special talents or inventions.

The proposed changes to Canada’s political-economic system were submitted to Viktor. The proposal recommended that Canada remain geographically in its current form, with all provinces and territories intact, but that the political-economic system be modified according to the list of changes developed by the team.

Viktor’s reaction was immediate and strong. He accepted the argument that it was a good idea to retain a strong capitalist country in the world. Canada had served well in that capacity over the past two years, and it was conceivable, given the novelty of the PMS development, that the need for such a resource could arise again. He agreed that the list of changes would not destroy the strong motivation that capitalism nurtured for creativity and development, but would go far to improve quality of life for citizens and improved protection of the environment. He had no problem using capitalism as a tool of socialism, but a serious objection to using it as a basis for managing human society and the biosphere.

What he could not understand, however, was why Canada needed to continue to be so large. He was not against the large size, per se, but he was opposed to the fact that so large an area would continue to be exempted from the requirements of the PMS to restrict industrial activity to cities, to limit urban and rural areas to about one percent of the land, and to prohibit permanent settlements in wild areas. It seemed to him that Canada could continue to operate as a capitalist society and fulfill its role as manager of the PMS in the Western Hemisphere, and still comply with the PMS requirements.

Joel pointed out that it was not reasonable to expect Canadians to impose population control measures on other Canadians. That is the very issue that Viktor himself had raised, earlier.

“In that case,” Viktor countered, “it seems to me that Canada should be reduced in size, to the area in which most industry is located, and all of the other provinces separated. In other words, reduce Canada to include just Acadia and Ontario, with the western border of Ontario shifted somewhat further west, as you described. Then most of the area of the provinces of Québec, British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, and the territories of Yukon, Northwest Territories and Nunavut could be rewilded, except for along the Pacific Coast and the rail line crossing present-day Canada from east to west.”

Joel responded, “Viktor, sheer size is an important consideration in an industrial economy. Minerals are produced in every province and territory. The top four provinces, Ontario, Québec, British Columbia, and Saskatchewan, account for over three-quarters of Canada's total value of mineral production. The only operating uranium mine is in northern Saskatchewan. You know yourself that a primary reason why Russia is self-sufficient is that it covers a vast geographic area – in fact, it spans eleven time zones. The situation is similar in Canada. If Canada is to continue as a strong industrial power, it needs to be large in geographic size. Prior to the war, strong industrial nations, such as Sweden, for example, could be small in size, because, with massive international trade, any mineral or energy resources that were needed could be readily obtained. That situation is absolutely no longer the case. There is no longer any international trade. To be a strong industrial power in the postwar context, Canada absolutely needs to cover a large geographic area, just as Russia does, in order to have access to a full range of raw materials.”

Joel continued. “In addition to geographic size, another key issue is population size. In modern technological society, new product developments require massive investments in research and development. Such large investments are not feasible for a country having a small population. If Canada is to be able to create and develop new applications, essentially on its own, it needs to have a large population. Prior to the war, all major industrial powers, such as the US, Russia, China, India, South Korea, all had large populations. Canada’s aggressive immigration policy of the past century was promoted in recognition of this fundamental fact. If Canada is to continue as a strong and creative industrial power, then there is a strong reason for Canada to have a large population. Its current population is just 30 million. Your proposal would cut that in half, at least.”

“OK, Joel,” agreed Viktor, “you make some very good points. For the time being, Canada will continue as presently configured, geographically. But let’s proceed with the political-economic reforms.”

Viktor approved the team’s proposals, without modification. Canada would continue in its present form as Russia’s ally and in its role as controller of the PMS in the Western Hemisphere. It would institute political and economic reforms to improve the quality of life of residents and protect the biosphere.

Joel and his team were very pleased with the outcome. It remained for the government to enact the team’s list of political and economic changes. In view of the fact that Viktor was in the driver’s seat, there was little doubt that these changes would be implemented.

As might be expected, the proposed changes were met with consternation, derision, and anger by the owners of banks and property. The proposals had the strong backing of the people, however, and it was made very clear to everyone that there was no reasonable alternative. The choice was between a more restricted version of capitalism, or no capitalism at all.

The process for amending the Canadian Constitution is described in the Constitution Act of 1982. For the proposed changes, this process requires approval by resolutions of the House of Commons, the Senate, and all of the provincial legislative assemblies.

The process of drafting a new Constitution and legislation to implement the required changes to the law took several weeks. At one point, it was proposed that the Maritime Provinces be combined with portions of northeastern United States to form a single large province of Acadia. Having a single province more comparable in size to the other provinces would have administrative advantages. The southern border of Canada in that region, which would go basically from Kingston to Boston, would be much shorter than the current circuitous one. Immediately, the discussion got bogged down in details, such as where the capital city of the new province would be. The significant point was made that population control was being effected only outside of Canada, and that this proposal would add substantial area that would no longer be subject to PMS regulations.

At present, there was no time for such considerations, and the proposal was quickly shelved. It was recognized that, because of the speed of drafting the new constitution and laws, it was highly likely that additional amendments would be required. The Acadia issue could be reconsidered at that time, after receiving careful analysis. Besides, the longer the elapsed time before this issue was considered, the lower the population of the area, so that the issue about the area no longer being subject to PMS land-use regulations would become moot, since the area would be essentially depopulated. It was also noted that a basic motivation for reconfiguring Canada was to reduce its size, thereby reducing the amount of area not subject to PMS land-use regulations, not to increase its size. John Brant observed that much of the land under consideration for annexation was traditional Haudenosaunee land, and he personally would prefer to see it rewilded under land-use rules for PMS wild areas, similar to when his people occupied it, not annexed into Canada and subject to Canadian land-use rules.

With no changes to the provincial composition of the country, and in recognition that the law changes had to follow the list, approval of the new Constitution and legislation quickly followed.

Chapter 9. Vacations in the Caribbean

One of Joel’s aunts was born in the Gaspé Peninsula, where the winters are long and cold. She lived on a farm, and it was a five-mile walk to and from school each day. As a young girl, she would sit looking out the window at the winter snow and thinking, “Would summer ever come.”

Some years later, as a young mother, she and her husband decided to emigrate to the United States. They eventually settled in South Carolina, in the Sunny South. While they missed their family in Canada very much, and returned often for visits, they never regretted their move from a cold climate to a warm one.

Her Canadian relatives visited them in South Carolina. They were particularly fond of the South Carolina beaches, which are among the finest in the world – broad sandy beaches, warm water, and moderate surf. Many vacationed further south, in Florida and the Caribbean. A few emigrated from Canada to warmer climes, but the attraction of family, roots, culture and homeland is strong, and most of her friends and relatives were quite content to remain in Canada, taking an occasional vacation to warmer places from time to time.

Joel recalls her remarking once that Canadians were always thinking about their next vacation. With respect to weather, living in the Piedmont region of South Carolina was like a perpetual vacation.

Well, as things turned out, the citizens of Canada soon had ample access to warm and then tropical weather.

It happened in four steps. The first step was completion of the railroad that circumscribed North America. As soon as it was completed, Canadians could travel to coastal cities in the former United States, Mexico, and the Central American – to Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. And travel they did. The rail fare was reasonable. There were many interesting stops to be made in cities along the route to warm weather. Tourist facilities quickly developed.

The second step was the completion of airfields at many of the coastal cities in North America. Before the airfields were available, people made substantial use of the railways. Compared to airplanes, travel by train was slow, taking several days for travel from northern cities to cities far south. While that suited many people just fine, as the number of very attractive seaside resorts in the tropics increased, a growing number of people desired to reach their final destination quickly, so that the travel time was not a major component of the total trip time. Because of the increasingly vocal demand, and because of the perceived low impact on the biosphere, Canada soon approved the substantial expansion of commercial air travel.

The third step was the construction of naval stations on coasts and navigable rivers all over the Western Hemisphere, including the Caribbean and South America. The purpose of these stations was to enable monitoring and control of these areas, to enforce the prohibition on the presence of industrial activity in wild areas. There were no plans to build a circumferential railroad around South America, just a few coastal cities and naval stations. As these cities were completed, there were calls to develop commercial airline and ocean passenger-ship capacity, so that the residents could return home on visits and other people could visit these locations as tourists. Those requests were turned down, on the rationale that that development would produce little additional benefit to people beyond those already available from the facilities in North America, and no additional benefit for the biosphere. The intention was that, except for a few coastal cities, all of South America would eventually be rewilded, and increasing air and ship traffic to it was not consistent with that goal. So, the number of people who had access to South America were few – residents of a small number of coastal cities, and military personnel who were deployed to the naval stations.

The war had a substantial impact on the Caribbean islands. Over the past century, the population of many of the islands had exploded, and many of them ranked among the most densely populated countries of the world. The human population on the larger islands vastly exceeded the natural carrying capacity. Just prior to the war, the islands contained a number of megacities. In the war, all cities having populations over one million were destroyed. These cities included Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic; Port-au-Prince, Haiti; San Juan, Puerto Rico; Havana, Cuba; Kingston, Jamaica; Santiago de los Caballeros, Dominican Republic; and Santiago de Cuba, Cuba.

While some Caribbean islands, such as Cuba, had a number of small hydroelectric power plants, about 90 percent of the islands’ energy was obtained from fossil fuels. As soon as the war occurred, the islands were essentially without power. The islands had grown dependent on tourism, and much of the food was imported. Without power and food, chaos soon reigned, as in the United States.

A year after the war, the population of the Caribbean islands had decreased to low levels, although it covered the islands. A debate arose over the distribution of land use of the islands, i.e., how much should be urban, how much rural, and how much wild. Because of their small total size compared to the nearby continents, it was viewed that the effort to maintain wild areas would yield little benefit to the biosphere, and it was decided that they would contain just urban and rural areas, essentially as they did before the war (the few small national parks could hardly be considered “wild”).

When the postwar violence had subsided, Canada installed self-sufficient cities, along with naval stations, on all of the larger islands (the Greater Antilles) and a number of the smaller ones (the Lesser Antilles). As soon as these cities were completed, including their air strips, requests were made to allow commercial travel to the Caribbean islands. It was decided that this would have little impact on the environment and satisfy a substantial demand, so the requests were approved.

Calls were made by some citizens of Canada to annex all of the Caribbean islands into Canada, rather than include them in the urban and rural areas of the PMS outside of Canada. A principal motivation underlying these requests was the fact that, under Canadian law, Canadians could own land. Some capitalists saw the Caribbean islands as a unique natural resource to be exploited as exotic tropical destinations. Making them a part of Canada would exempt them from complying with key requirements of the PMS. While this might benefit a few wealthy Canadians, and make them wealthier, it would diminish the benefits for most people and for the biosphere. These requests were promptly denied.

Joel and his team had been consulted to give their position on the land-use structure for the Caribbean, and about extending air travel there. They saw no problems in it, and what was finally established was consistent with their recommendations.

Joel discussed the possibility of a Caribbean vacation with his uncle, George. In his younger days, George had consulted on a number of occasions to governments in the Caribbean, both on the mainland and the islands. He had had assignments in Honduras, Haiti, Jamaica, Barbados (and in the Bahamas, which is in the Atlantic but associated economically and culturally with the Caribbean). He had vacationed in many more places, including Mexico, the countries of Central America, Aruba, Bonaire, Curaçao, the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands and Grenada. In Haiti and Barbados, he had conducted tax-policy analysis studies focusing on the export commodities coffee, cotton, sisal, mangoes and meat. At one point, his team’s report on coffee was the definitive economic analysis of coffee production in Haiti. In Jamaica he had designed a national survey to assess the social and economic impact of cash-transfer payments to welfare recipients. In the Bahamas he had taught statistics to members of the national statistics department.

George had not been back to the Caribbean in many years, and he expressed keen interest in visiting again. Some of the cities he had visited earlier no longer existed, but most of them were still there. He and Joel went alone, and had a great time.

Chapter 10. The Situation in South America

As the development of the PMS neared completion in North America, the amount of attention given to South America increased. The largest cities in South America had been targeted in the war, and were now gone. As in North America, without access to petroleum and food, the highly developed areas of the region quickly collapsed.

Detailed surveillance of the region confirmed the severe environmental and ecological damage that had been done to the continent by large human numbers and industrial activity. A substantial portion of the Amazonian rainforest had been destroyed by farming and ranching. Slash-and-burn had been used to carve farms out of the rainforest. Three fourths of the soil in the Amazon is a clay-like laterite soil that is acidic and low in nutrients. After a few years of farming, the nutrients and living matter of the poor rainforest soil are depleted and the ground turns brick-hard. A substantial portion of the Amazon rainforest – on the order of 20 percent – had been destroyed and converted to cattle ranching to provide beef to the United States.

Brazil contained a large number of cities of size over one million population, and those were now gone. The export markets were gone, so there was no longer demand for the massive amounts of beef for which the rainforest had been destroyed. Brazil had been a highly industrialized country, with an economy based heavily in exports. Its top exports were oil seeds, ores, mineral fuels, meat, sugar, iron and steel, machinery including computers, vehicles including cars and aircraft, cereals and chemical wood pulp. The United States was Brazil's second-largest export market. The primary products exported to the US, which was Brazil’s second-largest export market after China, were crude oil, aircraft, iron and steel, and machinery. All of these markets had vanished in the war, in a few hours of a single day.

Brazil’s energy sources included hydropower, fossil fuels, biofuels, solar and nuclear. Brazil was the third largest hydroelectricity producer in the world after China and Canada. Its Itaipu Dam had the world's largest hydroelectric dam by generating capacity. For the most part, those sources were now gone. The national electric power grid was no longer functional.

As Canada monitored the situation in South America, it witnessed a collapse every bit as fast, but not nearly as severe, as that in the United States. Some rural parts were little dependent on industrial energy, and were little affected.

In Argentina, the Pampas grasslands had been much changed, like the Great Plains of North America, by immigration and agriculture. Argentina had had a strong export economy. It was the world’s largest exporter of soybean meal and oil, and a major exporter of delivery trucks, corn, meat and mineral fuels. All of these export markets were now gone, along with a substantial portion of the Argentine urban population.

The original concept of the PMS was for South America to be rewilded. In North America, the collapse, fueled by cultural fragmentation, a culture of violence, and a massive number of guns and supply of ammunition, was fast and substantial. The population plummeted quickly and drastically. This did not happen in South America. Much of the continent was not highly developed economically. When the war happened, national electrical grids collapsed, as they did everywhere. But many people could survive just fine without electricity. Many people in rural areas raised their own food. In short, the elimination of sources of industrial energy was not followed by a severe collapse of population.

Canada’s military was not sure how to handle the situation. It was not going to be possible to rewild the continent of South America in the same way as had been done in North America. The great die-off that happened in North America was not happening in South America. To rewild a substantial portion of South America would require relocation of large numbers of people. That approach had not been taken in North America, and it was not clear that it was a good one. Unlike the situation in North America, it could lead to endless suppression. Displaced populations would harbor tremendous, long-standing resentment and hatred. More importantly, it would not lead to a decline of the population to the stable levels required to maintain a free and high-quality lifestyle for human beings, such as had been achieved in North America under the PMS paradigm.

With no clear approach to the problem evident, it was decided that, for the time being, no effort would be taken to rewild South America. If substantial industrial activity occurred, it would be neutralized. The region would continue to contain large types of all three land-use types – urban, rural and wild – but nowhere near the 99-percent-wild goal that had been originally envisioned for it, and had been substantially accomplished in North America.

Chapter 11. Nothing Lasts Forever, or Even Very Long

Joel and his team had had an incredible opportunity to become involved in the reshaping the world after the nuclear war. Their primary contributions were in the design phase of the establishment of the PMS, but as the implementation proceeded, they were often consulted, such as on decisions about the Caribbean and South America. Things were stable now, and they were taking time to relax, enjoy life, pursue hobbies and other interests, such as Joel’s vacation with his uncle, George, to the Caribbean.

But nothing lasts forever. Change is the essential feature of the universe. Someone once observed, “Jove strikes down the Titans when they are adjusting the last jewel in their crown.” In his epic poem, Paracelsus, Robert Browning expressed this, somewhat less elegantly, as “Jove strikes the Titans down, Not when they set about their mountain-piling, But when another rock would crown the work.”

And so it was with the PMS.

One day, out of the blue, a ballistic-missile attack was launched against the Arctic and Antarctic regions. In the Arctic, a number of large thermonuclear bombs were detonated on the island of Greenland. In Antarctic, a number of large thermonuclear bombs were detonated around, and just inside, the margins of the continent’s landmass.

It was obvious what the intention of these attacks was. It was, first, to attempt to cause an immediate and substantial rise in sea levels. This would be accomplished if a substantial portion of the over-land Antarctic ice sheet were to break away. If all that occurred was the breaking off of floating ice, then no rise of sea level would occur, since, by Archimedes’ Principle, an object in water is buoyed up by the weight of the water it displaces. As the floating sea ice melts, the sea volume remains unchanged. The fact that the bombs were detonated just inside the margins of the landmass, and not just inside the margins of the sheet ice, was incontrovertible evidence that the intention was to break off nonfloating portions of the ice sheet – portions that were over land. The entry of the nonfloating ice sheets would cause an immediate rise in sea level. Unlike the sea level rise from melting of glaciers and over-land polar ice, which is gradual, this sea level rise would be immediate, occurring as the pieces slid off the landmass and into the ocean.

The evident second purpose of the attacks – the bombs detonated on Greenland – was to cause the immediate melting of a substantial amount of the Greenland ice sheet. This ice sheet is much smaller than the Antarctic ice sheet, and so the effect of this melting on raising the sea level would be small. The evident purpose of melting a substantial amount of Greenland cap ice was to introduce an injection of a large amount of fresh water into the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, and disrupt its circulation.

The AMOC is part of a large system of ocean currents, known as the Gulf Stream, that transports warm water from the tropics northwards into the North Atlantic. It carries a northward flow of warm, salty water in the upper layers of the Atlantic, and a southward flow of colder, deep waters. The AMOC is an important component of the Earth's climate system. It is responsible for the relative warmth of the Northern Hemisphere, responsible for carrying up to 25 percent of the northward global atmosphere-ocean heat transport in the northern hemisphere. This is generally believed to moderate the climate of Northwest Europe.

As well as acting as a heat pump and high-latitude heat sink, the AMOC is the largest carbon sink in the Northern Hemisphere, sequestering a massive amount of carbon each year. This sequestration is an important factor affecting the evolution of anthropogenic global warming, both with respect to adding carbon to the atmosphere and with respect to the recent and projected future decline in the strength of the AMOC.

Several bombs were detonated in open ocean, in areas of AMOC downwelling. It was generally believed that the adding of heat to these areas would weaken the AMOC.

If the AMOC could be substantially weakened, the amount of heat transferred from the tropics to the Northern Hemisphere could decrease substantially, causing the climate in the northern region to be much cooler. This disruption might trigger an ice age, but the possibility of that occurrence was sheer speculation. It was not reasonable to imagine that the intention of the attacks was to precipitate an ice age, since that seemed very unlikely. Moreover, it was not clear why anyone would want to do that. A much more credible motivation for the attack was, rather than initiating an ice age, the blanketing of Canada, Russia and the Scandinavian countries with snow and ice.

It appeared that the nuclear attacks were intended to land a one-two punch on Russia, Canada, and the urban and rural areas of the PMS. The attacks were carried out using ballistic missiles. With its satellite surveillance system, Russia immediately detected the launches. Since they were not directed toward targets in Russia, however, no attempt was made to intercept them. The destroy-on-launch system had been disabled. With the passage of several years from the war, and the evident destruction of all nuclear nations except Russia, it was considered that it was no longer necessary for this system to be on alert or even on standby. There were now a substantial number of peacetime rocket launches, but they were always initiated by Russia or Canada. The effort required to operate the system in a peacetime environment having many launches was substantial. The threat was viewed as insignificant, so the system was turned off.

In retrospect, this decision was an astonishing blunder.

In summary, the apparent intention of the attacks was to flood the PMS urban-rural areas, which were mainly along coasts, and to blanket Russia and Canada in snow and ice. Although the intention of the attack could quickly be surmised, predicting its effects was difficult. It could not be known for certain whether the bombs would have the intended effect. If the attacks were to have an impact, however, it could be immediate – on the order of hours and days for the termination of the AMOC, but a substantially longer time for the sea-level rise, depending on how quickly loosened ice slid from land to water in Antarctica.

As soon as the attacks occurred, Viktor called Joel to discuss the situation. Viktor described the attack, around and inside the margins of the Antarctic land mass and in Greenland. Joel’s immediate reaction is that the ocean-current and ice-sheet systems had been analyzed and modeled for years, that the attacker probably designed the attack taking these models into account, and that the attack would not have been made at all unless the attacker was fairly confident that it would work. Joel’s assessment was that there would in fact be an immediate and substantial rise in ocean levels – many meters – with massive flooding of all coastal areas. In North America, it would be quite possible that large portions of the eastern US, including the southeastern portion and the Mississippi Valley, would be under water. Large portions of Siberia could be under water. With respect to the cities of the PMS, Joel’s assessment was that many of the harbors would be under water, but that most of the cities would survive, because of the requirement to construct them mostly above six meters in altitude, and some portions above 60 meters.

As Joel spoke, Viktor remained silent, taking it in. When Viktor heard Joel’s last remark, he exclaimed, “What! What do you mean? There is no requirement for PMS cities to be above a certain altitude! What are you talking about?”

“Well, Viktor,” Joel responded, “there is absolutely such a requirement. It is explicitly specified in the detailed plans that we sent you. The reason for this requirement – to accommodate possible rise in sea levels – was explicitly stated. Besides, scientists have been discussing the possibility of substantial sea rise from global warming for years. How could you have missed this?”

“Oh my God!” exclaimed Viktor. “I did not realize that. We adopted your concept of having the urban-rural settlements of the PMS along coasts, but we did not impose any altitude requirement. If the oceans rise by just a few meters, many of our cities and settlements are doomed!”

“Viktor,” Joel replied, “I cannot express how deeply sorry I am to hear this. I am deeply saddened.”

“Oh my God. Oh my God. Oh my God,” Viktor repeated. He was obviously stunned and speechless.

“Well, Viktor,” Joel continued, “that is just my assessment. Perhaps the bombs will not break off any chunks of the Antarctic ice sheet, and there will be no sea-level rise at all. Even if they break off, they may slide into the sea slowly. Let’s just wait and see.”

“Yes, yes,” Viktor said, “perhaps it will not happen at all. We may be out of the woods. In any event, there is nothing that we can do about it. As you say, we should wait and see.”

Joel continued. “Viktor, the loss of the PMS cities is a really bad setback, but it is not a catastrophe. Russia built all of those areas in just the past two years, and you can do it again. That is a major setback in time, but it has no effect in the long run. It could well be that the thing to worry about is the attack on Greenland.”

“The attack on Greenland?” Viktor queried. “What about it? Isn’t that just icing on the cake? Greenland contains only a fraction of the sheet ice that Antarctica has. Would that cause much sea-level rise?”

“Viktor,” Joel said, “you are absolutely correct. The attack on Greenland is not intended to raise sea levels. It is to stop the Gulf Stream.”

“Stop the Gulf Stream?” Viktor asked, “How would that stop the Gulf Stream? And what if it did stop?”

“I’ll answer your second question first. The Gulf Stream carries much heat from the tropics to the north. If it is stopped, and the heat is not transmitted in some other way, such as by larger and more numerous storms, then the Northern Hemisphere will become much colder. Parts of Russia and Canada could become covered in snow and ice, just as Greenland is now. If this happened to a substantial degree, our two countries could be in real trouble. It could be a catastrophe. The problem is that no one really knows what would happen. All that is really agreed on is that it is within the realm of possibility.”

“Oh, God, Joel,” Viktor exclaimed. “How can this be happening? What can we do? How likely is this to happen?”

“Viktor,” said Joel, “the effect of the bombs on Greenland is to melt the ice and cause a massive infusion of fresh water into the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, which is part of the Gulf Stream. It is like a giant ocean conveyor belt, that carries warm water north along the surface and cold water south deep under the surface. Although it has operated for centuries, it is not stable. If a lot of fresh water is injected into it, or if a lot of heat is injected into it at a downwelling point, it can slow to a halt. If the attack on Greenland is successful in causing this to happen, I would imagine that we would know in a few days.”

“And then what would happen?” Viktor asked.

“Then, the climate would immediately start to get colder in the Northern Hemisphere. It could be like the Little Ice Age of Medieval times. The line of permanent ice in Russia and Canada would move southward. The region of permanent ice in the Arctic Ocean – the Arctic ice cap – would increase in size.”

“Would we have time to relocate?” Viktor asked.

“Well, yes,” Joel replied. “But that issue is not the main point. The important point, it seems to me, is that there is a power on Earth, other than Russia and Canada, that has the capability and will to do us in. Their intention is obviously to destroy our PMS and set up their own. With your satellite surveillance system, you have tracked the missiles. Where did they originate from?”

“They came from China. They came from no-name cities in China. We knew where most of China’s land-based ballistic missiles were, and we destroyed them before they were launched. Evidently, however, China was successful in secretly building a lot of underground silos in cities, where we could not detect their construction.”

“But why now?” Joel wondered. “If they had these missiles, why did they not use them in the war? Why did they wait?”

“I don’t know,” Viktor remarked. “Perhaps, because they suffered a lot of damage right away, they saw that they had lost the war, and that launching additional missiles would be pointless. Perhaps because they saw so much damage to Russia, they decided that sending additional missiles would be a waste. Perhaps, having lost the initial round of the war, they simply lay back, waiting to see how things evolved, and then counterattacking when it would benefit them. You know the Chinese reputation for patience. It would appear they believe that this is an opportune time. We have now constructed a global PMS, which they could take over. Had they attacked earlier, with no industrial capacity following the war, they could not have constructed that. All they have to do is destroy Russia and Canada. It may be that they had very few ballistic missiles left, insufficient with which to wage ballistic missile warfare on a large scale. They may have chosen to use their missiles in a one-shot attempt to wipe us out by geoengineering the planet, or at least the Northern Hemisphere.”

Joel countered, “Viktor, if their goal is to take over the PMS, then the attack on Greenland makes sense, since it might harm Russia and Canada. But if that is in fact their goal, then it makes no sense to attempt to destroy much of it by raising sea levels.”

“Well,” Viktor commented, “it could be that they saw the vulnerability in the Russian version, of placing many settlements at sea level. Because of global warming, sea levels were already rising, and are expected to rise further. It was going to happen, to some extent, in any event. Canada’s settlements, at altitudes expected to be higher than a potential sea-level raise, do not possess this vulnerability. Perhaps they want Russia to rebuild its settlements, well above sea level.”

“Well, if that were the case – that they would like for Russia to rebuild the settlements at higher altitudes – then they would not have endangered Russia by attacking Greenland. They would have just attacked Antarctica.”

“You have a point,” agreed Viktor. “It is difficult to see just what is going on. From some points of view, their actions do seem inconsistent. Other than the attack itself, we do not have any solid information. Perhaps we are giving them credit for being smarter than they really are.”

“In any event,” Joel commented, “it seems to me that we do not have to wait long to find out.”

“Is all we can do is wait?” Viktor asked. “Is there nothing we can do?”

“Well, Viktor,” Joel replied, “you could issue orders to evacuate all of your PMS urban-rural areas. That action would save lives, but not infrastructure. But even if some over-land chunks of the Antarctic ice cap break loose, we do not know how quickly they will slide into the sea. Who is populating the urban-rural areas? Russians or others?”

“Unlike the model in North America, our PMS settlements outside of Russia are populated by local people, not Russians. Only our naval stations are manned with Russians. The boats and ships are safe. We would lose some fuel-storage facilities.” Viktor paused.

“So,” Joel asked, “what are you going to do?”

Viktor paused further, and then spoke. “I am going to inform the naval stations of the situation, and order them to prepare for a possible immediate sea-level rise. I am not so sure about issuing a warning to the settlements. As you say, we don’t know how quickly this may happen, if it happens at all. If it were to happen slowly, there is not much to worry about – I don’t have to issue a warning at all. The problem arises if it were to happen quickly. There are four cases to consider. If I do issue a warning and nothing happens, then I look foolish. If I issue a warning and the sea levels rise, then I will have saved a lot of lives, but for what good purpose? The survivors will blame me for not realizing that the sea levels might rise. They would be incredibly angry. If I don’t issue a warning and nothing happens, then no harm done. If I don’t issue a warning and sea levels rise, then many people perish, but they are not around to complain. Based on this decision table, I should not issue a warning to the settlements.”

“Your analysis reminds me of the US government’s decision to discontinue its fallout shelter program, many decades ago,” Joel remarked. “The argument went like this: What is the point to saving people if the government is not prepared to care for them afterward, and if there is nothing for them to do? If they cannot survive on their own, if the government cannot care for them, and if the government has no use for them, then they are of no value to themselves or to anyone else. In this case, what useful purpose do they serve? What is the point to saving them, to warning them? What are people for?” Joel paused. “Should I call you logical or cynical?” he asked.

Viktor ignored Joel’s facetious remark, and said nothing.

“And if the Gulf Stream stops?” Joel continued. “What will you do about that?”

Viktor paused. “I don’t know.” He paused again. “What do you propose, Mr. Hot Shot?”

Joel chuckled to himself. Viktor’s world was on the verge of a disaster, but he retained his sense of humor. Or was he simply responding in kind to Joel’s earlier facetious comment?

“Viktor,” Joel began. “The PMS is operational in North America. From the point of view of continuing modern technology with a high quality of life for human beings and a rich biosphere, we have succeeded very well. The technology of Canada is now established in the PMS cities. Whether Canada is smothered in ice will have no effect on the continued operation of the PMS, except for the issue that its long-term survival requires an external political power to implement population control. If Canada is gone and Russia remains, then Russia can fill that role. If Russia is gone, too, then it seems to me that we have a serious problem.”

Joel paused. “If the Gulf Stream stops, then I would consider relocating Russia substantially to the south. You would have time to do this. It would not be easy, because you would have to displace whole populations. But it is feasible.”

Joel paused again. “You know, Viktor, South America is pretty much intact. The large cities are gone, but many small and medium-sized cities remain. Many of the very small ones are still functional. Brazil was hit hard, but it had so many cities that much of its industrial capacity could be resurrected. You might consider relocating Russia to Brazil. Or Argentina. Or, perhaps to Australia. Australia is essentially empty.”

Viktor scoffed, “To Brazil! Argentina! Australia! Joel, are you crazy? Russia is a great country, spanning eleven time zones. In the time of world empires, Russia was one of the greatest. It has a tradition and culture of global leadership. The countries that you mention, both geographically and culturally, are not in this league. Besides, Russia’s cold climate is part of its culture. The cold has shaped its character and destiny. It has protected it in wars past, and it could protect it again. Russia’s destiny is in the North. I do not see Russia in Brazil.”

“No, Viktor, I am not crazy.” Joel replied. “I know that you would prefer to stay in Russia, but a substantial portion of Russia may soon be blanketed in ice. Everything is a matter of alternatives. You have to identify a range of reasonable alternative and select the one that is best, overall. If you can’t stay in Russia, where would you like to go? Turkey? China? Australia? Brazil? I personally would probably opt for Brazil, but I like warm weather and you like cold weather. Strategically, Australia would probably be a better choice, because Brazil would have long borders to defend, and Australia is an island-continent. Yes, Australia. That could work very well.”

“Joel,” Viktor replied. “I can’t tell whether you are joking or serious. In any event, from what you have told me, we have to wait a few days to see what transpires, perhaps even longer. Let’s sign off for now. I am sure that we will speak again soon.”

“OK, Viktor, let us hope for the best. The seas may not rise, or may not rise very much. The Gulf Stream may not stop, and even if it does, the effects may be mild. In our discussion, I have focused on worst cases. All I really know is that someone thinks that the chance of the attack’s triggering these events is sufficiently high to give it a shot. By the way, we have discussed some very important issues, but we have not discussed what may be the most important of all. Someone fired those missiles. There are many countries in the world that are hanging on, but until now it was our belief that none of them were nuclear powers. The game has suddenly changed. The world continues to live under the specter of nuclear war. What happened may be the swan song of a moribund China, or it could signal that Russia has a nuclear-armed opponent. The global nuclear war is not over. There is not much insight I can give to you on that issue.”

“Yes, I understand,” Viktor concluded. “Thank you, Joel, for your help. I appreciate it very much.”

The call was ended.

Chapter 12. The Effects of Nuclear War

It did not take long for the effects of the attack to manifest. Several very large chunks of the Antarctic ice sheet broke off and started to slide into the sea. All but one of the chunks were sea ice, however, and had no effect on raising sea levels. One of them, however – the largest one – had rested on the continental land mass, and when it broke off and it started to slide slowly into the ocean, eventually, sea levels rose by several meters.

The results were spectacular. In North America, much of the US southeast was now covered in water, including all of Florida and the “low-county” portions of the southeastern states. The broad Mississippi Valley was flooded. Parts of California’s Central Valley (Sacramento Valley and San Joaquin Valley) flooded. The Sea of Cortez stretched north into the Cahuilla Basin (Salton Trough), flooding the Coachella Valley, the Salton Sea, Imperial Valley, the Mexicali Valley and the Colorado River Delta. Many Caribbean islands were gone. The Yucatan Peninsula was gone. The Great Lakes and the major Canadian cities were all of sufficiently high altitude – over 60 meters – that they were not flooded. A number of coastal settlements of the PMS were flooded, but none of them were cities.

The low countries of northeastern Europe were flooded, as were parts of Siberia. Many southeast Asian cities were flooded. Bangladesh was covered in water.

The Gulf Stream was stopped, after a fashion, but the effect on the weather in Canada and Russia was not great. The weather got much colder in the northwestern Europe, including the United Kingdom, the Scandinavian and Baltic countries. Much of Russia, however, was not much affected. Canada was little affected.

The stopping of the Gulf Stream and the raising of the sea levels had a significant, immediate and global impact on human population. Prior to the war, about half of the world's population lived within 200 kilometers of a coastline. Many large industrial cities had been located along coasts. Those cities were destroyed in the war, and their populations along with them. In the year following the war, many of the survivors of the war died from violence, lack of food, or exposure. The raising of the sea levels pretty much finished off the remaining survivors along the coasts, except for most of the PMS cities constructed by Canada, which cities had been situated at altitudes sufficiently high to avoid destruction from a potential sea rise. Some portions of those cities, such as harbors and other waterfront areas, were, of course, located near sea level, and some reconstruction was required. Many of Russia’s PMS cities were flooded, and had to be relocated.

Although the stopping of the Gulf Stream and the raising of the sea levels affected Russia’s schedule for implementing the PMS in the Eastern Hemisphere, setting it back by a year or two, it had little effect on the biosphere. Many coastal wetlands were destroyed, and some of the species that were dependent on those wetlands were wiped out.

The stopping of the Gulf Stream cooled the climate somewhat, so that the winters were longer and harsher. This effect was not sufficient to motivate the relocation of industry to more southern locations, but it was sufficient to stimulate migration of Canadians to warmer climes. With the opening up of the Caribbean, there was strong pressure to construct more PMS cities on the Caribbean islands, and this was done.

One interesting effect of the climate change In Canada is that it changed the flow of water out of the Great Lakes, from going mainly through the St. Lawrence River to the Atlantic Ocean to going mainly through the Illinois River to the Gulf of Mexico.

The Illinois Waterway was a major system of rivers, lakes, and canals that provided a shipping connection from the Great Lakes to the Gulf of Mexico via the Illinois and Mississippi rivers. Following the war, it was still largely intact. The Illinois Waterway went from Chicago on Lake Michigan to the Mississippi River just north of St. Louis, Missouri. The major stretch of the Waterway was the Illinois River, which runs from its beginning at the confluence of the Des Plaines and Kankakee Rivers to the Mississippi River. It was connected to Lake Michigan by a stretch along the Des Plaines River and the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal.

The Illinois Waterway has an interesting history. From the Wikipedia article on the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal: “Early Chicago sewage systems discharged directly into Lake Michigan or into the Chicago River, which itself flowed into the lake. The city's water supply also comes from the lake, through water intake cribs located two miles offshore. There were fears that sewage could infiltrate the water supply, leading to typhoid fever, cholera, and dysentery.

“By 1887, it was decided to reverse the flow of the Chicago River through civil engineering. Engineer Isham Randolph noted that a ridge about 12 miles from the lakeshore divided the Mississippi River drainage system from the Great Lakes drainage system. This low divide had been known since pre-Columbian time by the Native Americans, who used it as the Chicago Portage to cross from the Chicago River drainage to the Des Plaines River basin drainage. The Illinois and Michigan Canal was cut across that divide in the 1840s. While the canal was being built, permanent reversal of the Chicago River was attained in 1892, when the Army Corps of Engineers further deepened the Illinois and Michigan Canal.

“The Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal is designed to work by taking water from Lake Michigan and discharging it into the Mississippi River watershed.

“Diversions from the Great Lakes system were regulated by an international treaty between the United States and Canada, to maintain levels of the Great Lakes and regulate the flow of water through the St. Lawrence Seaway.”

Prior to the construction of the canals near Chicago, all water flowing out of Lakes Superior, Huron and Michigan traveled through the St. Lawrence River and the Atlantic Ocean. After the construction of the canals, a limited portion traveled through the canals to the Mississippi River and the Gulf of Mexico.

What happened to increase water flow through the Illinois Waterway was that the cooling of the climate in Canada was sufficient to cause portions of the Great Lakes Waterway and St. Lawrence Seaway to freeze solid. These portions included the portion of the St. Lawrence Seaway connecting Lake Ontario to the broader St. Lawrence River downstream; the Welland Canal, connecting Lakes Erie and Ontario; and the St. Clair and Detroit Rivers connecting Lakes Huron and Erie.

While it may have appeared that portions of the Great Lakes Waterway, such as Niagara Falls, freeze completely, that was almost never the case. In recorded history, Niagara Falls froze solid only once, in 1848. An ice jam occurred in the river above the falls, and, with the reduced water flow, the Falls froze solid. The reason that a complete freezing rarely ever occurred is that the volume of water coursing down the river was substantial and relatively fast flowing. Ice might form on the surface, but the water continued to flow under the surface ice.

The Great Lakes themselves rarely froze over. Lakes Superior, Huron and Erie froze over occasionally in severe winters, but Michigan and Ontario had never frozen completely over in recorded history.

Well, with the termination of the Gulf Stream, winters in Canada were now going to be severely harsh, every year. The first year after the Gulf Stream stopped, Lakes Superior, Huron and Erie were covered completely in ice. As the ice forms on the lakes, it floats generally eastward, because of the westerly winds and the eastward flow of the water to the Atlantic.

In the war, five large Canadian cities were hit – Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Toronto and Montreal. In addition, one smaller city was hit – Windsor, Ontario. It had a population of about a quarter million people. Windsor is directly across the Detroit River from Detroit, Michigan. Like Detroit, it was a major manufacturer of automobiles, and was known as the Automotive Capital of Canada. As major industrial centers, both Detroit, Michigan, and Windsor, Ontario, were targets. Both were demolished. Two large bridges cross the Detroit River at Windsor and Detroit. They are the Ambassador Bridge, a suspension bridge completed in 1929, and the Gordie Howe International Bridge, a cable-stayed bridge on which construction started in 2018. The Gordie Howe International Bridge was intended to eventually replace Ambassador Bridge. Following the attack, the remains of these bridges fell into the Detroit River. These remains were left undisturbed for two reasons – there was no longer any traffic between the now-nonexistent United States, and radiation levels in the area were still somewhat high.

As the very cold winter proceeded, the Detroit River became quickly covered with ice. Normally, water would continue to flow under the surface ice. Because of the extremely cold weather, massive amounts of ice quickly formed on Lake Huron and moved, from wind and current, into the St. Clair River, across Lake St. Clair, and into the Detroit River. There, because of the bridge debris, an ice dam quickly formed where the bridges had stood, and the water flow stopped.

Because of gravity and hydrostatic pressure, the water that had formerly passed through the Detroit River immediately sought other avenues of escape from the Lake Superior / Lake Huron / Lake Michigan system. The way out was through the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal, connecting to the Illinois River. The water flow that had until now flowed through the Detroit River and eventually to the Atlantic now flowed through the Illinois River to the Gulf of Mexico.

Although Lakes Erie and Ontario have many tributaries, the flow from Lake Huron through the Detroit River is the principal one into Lake Erie, and the flow from the Niagara River is the principal one into Lake Ontario. With the reduced flow and increased ice formation from the colder weather, ice dams soon formed at the Welland Canal and Niagara River, so water flow from Lake Erie to Lake Ontario ceased. Similarly, an ice dam formed where the St. Lawrence River flows from Lake Ontario, and the flow from Lake Ontario to the St. Lawrence River stopped.

With these sections of the Great Lakes Waterway frozen, Lakes Superior, Huron and Michigan were cut off from eastern Canada and the Atlantic Ocean.

With water flow to the Atlantic restricted, the water flow along the Illinois Waterway increased substantially. The water that formerly had flowed out of Lake Ontario into the St. Lawrence River and on to the Atlantic Ocean now flowed out of Lake Michigan and down the Illinois River to the Mississippi River and the Gulf of Mexico.

Visitors to Niagara Falls were always impressed by the massive amount of water that flowed out of the Great Lakes toward the St. Lawrence River. This water was now going down the Illinois River. The Illinois River could easily accommodate the increased flow. The geology of the river explains why.

From Wikipedia article on the Illinois River: “The modern channel of the Illinois River was shaped in a matter of days by the Kankakee Torrent. During the melting of the Wisconsin Glacier about 10,000 years ago, a lake formed in present-day Indiana, comparable to one of the modern Great Lakes. The lake formed behind the terminal moraine of a substage of that glacier. Melting ice to the north eventually raised the level of the lake so that it overflowed the moraine. The dam burst, and the entire volume of the lake was released in a very short time, perhaps a few days.

“Because of the manner of its formation, the Illinois River runs through a deep canyon with many rock formations. It has an ‘underutilized channel’, one far larger than would be needed to contain any conceivable flow in modern times.”

With the massive increase in flow, the Illinois River channel was no longer “underutilized.” While the Illinois River could easily accommodate the increased water volume, the Des Plaines River and Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal could not, and the substantial increase in flow quickly widened those waterways, causing damage to dams and locks.

The magnitude and nature of the problem did not become evident until the first winter after the cessation of the Gulf Stream. It was obvious that the shift of water flow would wreak havoc with Lakes Erie and Ontario, since they would no longer be subject to the cleansing action of a large flow of fresh water through them from Lakes Superior, Huron and, Michigan. While they certainly had numerous other smaller tributaries, the substantially reduced flow could result in their quickly becoming massive cesspools, as happened to Lake Erie in the 1960s.

A goal of the Canadian military had been that all of its coastal patrol boats would have year-round navigable access from any point on the east coast of North America, the Mississippi River, the St. Lawrence River, and the Great Lakes, to any other point of this coast. The climate cooling and freeze had placed this goal substantially out of reach, at least for one winter and perhaps for much longer.

Attention was immediately given to addressing the problem. It was considered urgent to determine a solution as soon as possible, and well before the next winter. It was decided that a feasible approach was to deploy a number of floating nuclear power reactors to thaw the frozen parts of the system. It was not clear, however, that this action would solve the problem, since a substantial portion the water flowing through the Great Lakes water system was now flowing down the Illinois River. After the restrictions were thawed, some portion of the water that had previously flowed through the Detroit River would continue to flow through the Illinois River. For the present, no work could be done to restrict the flow out of Lake Michigan to the Illinois River, because of the high radiation levels from the bombing of Chicago. Given this situation, a substantial portion of the water from the Great Lakes was going to continue to flow to the Gulf of Mexico, rather than to the Atlantic Ocean, for the foreseeable future.

The Illinois Waterway was no longer a navigable route to the Mississippi River and the Gulf of Mexico, at any time of year. At least in wintertime, the Great Lakes Waterway was no longer navigable through Lakes Erie and Ontario, and the St. Lawrence Seaway was not navigable at its beginning where it leaves Lake Ontario. Before this change, the Canadian military could provide logistical support to all vessels on the eastern half of North America, by boat. Now, the Great Lakes were essentially landlocked, and many naval stations and fuel depots would have to be supported by rail. The situation was a work in progress.

While the immediate concern of the climate change was navigability of the Great Lakes Waterway, another issue of comparable magnitude was the status of the Hudson Bay and the Arctic Ocean north of Canada. Until this event had happened, Canada was warming. The Arctic Ocean was thawing. Now, all of a sudden, in the twinkling of an eye, the Arctic was refreezing. The latitude of permanent ice would shift southward by an unknown amount. Baffin Bay and the Beaufort Sea and all of the water between them would likely freeze, ending the Northwest Passage. If Hudson Straight or Hudson Bay froze, the Arctic Ocean route to Russia would be gone.

Those routes were probably going to disappear anyway. As severe as the winters were becoming in northern Canada, similar changes would happen in northern Russia and northern Europe. Large extents of the seas north of Europe – the Greenland Sea and the Norwegian Sea – and of the seas north of Russia – the Barents Sea, Kara Sea, Laptev Sea, East Siberian Sea and Chukchi Sea – were formerly free of pack ice for some portion of each year. These would likely freeze solid, permanently. The Northeast Passage would be gone. The Northern Sea Route would be gone.

The Arctic would likely become one massive, contiguous solid sheet of ice. This event had not been predicted, expected or anticipated. Before the war, it was expected that, because of global warming, Russia and Canada would become the world’s great economic superpowers, as weather became more temperate for them and inhospitable in much of the world below them. How ironic! They had become the world’s two superpowers, but because of war, not because of climate change. Now, climate change could well do them in.

But not likely. So far, Russia and Canada had succeeded very well by planning for the unexpected – for the so-called “Black Swan” events – while nations that had planned for the expected, or planned poorly, or not planned at all, had experienced catastrophe. Conception of the PMS had been motivated by the deterioration of human society and the biosphere and the increasing threats of global catastrophe. The major catastrophe of global nuclear war had been the impetus for its initial development. The PMS had been designed to be antifragile, to benefit from shocks, to thrive on disorder, uncertainty and randomness. The PMS had succeeded fabulously because the global industrial world had collapsed catastrophically. It had thrived on chaos, on change, on population disasters, on economic collapse. It had been designed to do so – it was in fact a global disaster recovery system. It was designed to handle catastrophes, such as the world’s ecological crisis and human-quality-of-life crisis.

The PMS filled an urgent need. That urgent need had conceived it, shaped it, and stimulated its development. Necessity had indeed been the mother of invention. The PMS was an idea whose time had come. It was a good bet that it would survive. Whether the future held global warming or global cooling would not matter. Systems that needed one or the other would succeed or fail accordingly. Whichever happened – whatever happened, short of annihilation – would serve to strengthen the PMS, temper it, adapt it, improve it.

Epilog

Joel called his team together.

“Folks,” he began, “the world situation seems to have stabilized. An initial version of the planetary management system has been established around the globe. We have been very fortunate, as human beings, to have played a key role in that development.

“For some months now, we have been monitoring the global situation, and we have been consulted from time to time to analyze aspects of it and recommend policies.

“When I was in college, an economics professor of mine admonished the class with the advice, ‘Make it or sell it, don’t just keep up with it.’ For several years, my view is that, relative to the PMS, we have indeed been ‘making it and selling it.’ In my view, it would not exist had we not played our part as we did.

“The world is an incredible entity, and it is overflowing with interesting opportunities to participate in fascinating adventures. As a team, we could continue to take on challenging and interesting projects.

“In the past few months, however, I have not felt the level of excitement, passion, and sense of destiny that I did while we were conceiving, designing and implementing the PMS. It occurred to me recently that I am no longer looking for ‘the next big thing.’ I have always felt that it is good to go out at the top of your game.

“I have a strong sense of destiny and purpose, and I believe that I, with you as partners, have achieved my life’s purpose, or, at least, its main purpose. I am not ‘burned out,’ but I do have a sense of completion, of satisfaction, of accomplishment. The task of developing an initial PMS has been completed. That development was of crucial importance to the world – a ‘once in the history of the world’ opportunity and undertaking – and I do not see another project like that in my future.

“So, recently, I have given some thought to the question, ‘What do I do next?’ I am not inclined to rest on my laurels, and I do not wish to gracefully slip into some sort of ex-officio role. I don’t see myself spending my twilight years as a university professor writing memoirs. Or,” he chuckled, adding facetiously, “selling insurance on late-night television. Quite frankly, all of the opportunities I see today, as interesting and as important as they are, would be anticlimactic in comparison to what we have accomplished. It seems to me, relating to my old professor, that I am ‘just keeping up with it,’ and I am not satisfied to continue in this mode.

“I am ready for a new role in life. At the present, I do not know what that role will be. Perhaps I am entering a new stage of life. For several months now, I have been seeking fulfilment in possible improvements on the PMS. That fulfillment has not occurred, and I do not believe that it will occur. I have decided that that is not the path I wish to take. The Earth’s planetary management system will never be finished. It will always be changing, adapting to new situations. Our lives on the planet are short, and the process of operating it, maintaining it, and improving it, will soon fall to a new generation. There is no way that you or I can control its future for long. If we have done a good job, and if each new future generation does a good job, it will endure and be of lasting value.”

Joel turned to Yvonne, “Yvonne, that was what you always stressed – for the PMS to be sustainable, each new generation must do its job in keeping it going. All that we could ever do was to set it up. In any event, we have done our job, and, at least for me, it is time to let go. Now is as good a time as any to pass the torch to a new generation. There will continue to be challenges and crises in the future, but they must be handled by future generations. That is their torch to bear, not ours. If the PMS doesn’t continue to thrive, then that may be very unfortunate, but out of our hands. We have done our best, and it is very evident that we have done a very good job. But our job of developing the initial PMS is, I feel, concluded.

“We have been together as a team for a long time. We have worked extremely well together. We made a fortune in the US and then lost it when the war occurred. We have recovered nicely. As much as I have enjoyed and benefitted from the pleasure of your company, I believe that it is now time for all of us to move on. To that end, I am hereby announcing my resignation from the team. You are free to continue as you wish, either separately or together. Words cannot express my profound feeling of gratitude for your companionship in this quest that we have made.”

Joel stopped talking. The team were all silent. It seemed as if they had sensed his recent lack of purpose and direction. They knew Joel well, and they understood his motivations and needs. They made no effort to dissuade him from his plan.

Yvonne broke the silence. “Joel, in my view, you are doing exactly the right thing, for exactly the right reason, at exactly the right time. Your announcement leaves me with a feeling of profound loss, emptiness, and loneliness, but this moment had to come. Had you wished for the team to continue, with you as leader, I would always have been there for you. But I understand.”

After Yvonne finished, the other members of the team spoke. They expressed views similar to Yvonne’s.

It evidently seemed to every member of the team that there was nothing left to say. They understood Joel’s feeling. It was just time to move on. It was as simple as that.

Rani looked into Joel’s eyes. For the first time, she saw age. Or was it tiredness? Or peace? “Where are you going to go, Joel?” she asked.

“I think that I will visit some of the places of significance in my life, and just think about things, reflect on things. My Uncle George, in Belleville, is growing old, and I would like to visit him. I might visit some of the places I remember in Canada. The places where I lived and worked in the United States, and the people I knew and loved, except for you, are gone. Then, I will spend some time in the Caribbean. For some reason, I have always been attracted to the Caribbean. I’ve always enjoyed it there. It is a good place to relax.” He paused. “You know, I always wanted to learn to play the steel guitar, but never took the time. Yes, I could do that now. A pedal steel guitar. Something that no one would pay me to do.” He paused again. “And I think I’ll get myself a dog. A dachshund. Or maybe a poodle.”

Joel glanced around the table. In silence, he looked at each team member, and they looked back at him. Unexpectedly, he felt a rush of emotion well up in his breast, and tears forming in his eyes. He had not realized that breaking up the team would affect him like this.

“Well,” he concluded, somewhat sooner than he had expected, “we had a good run.” He cleared his throat. “I’ll be around for a few weeks before I leave. There’ll be details to wrap up. We’ll talk.”

Joel rose from his chair and slowly exited the room.

Appendix. Reasons for the Lack of Preparation of the United States for the Aftermath of Nuclear War, Its Lack of Effort to Rebuild, and Its Rapid Collapse

[This Appendix describes major points of the analysis conducted by Joel and his team to understand why the US government chose not to prepare for the aftermath of nuclear war, why the US survivors of the war made so little effort to rebuild, and why US society collapsed so fast after the war. The material included in this Appendix is not a necessary part of the story presented the main text of the book.]

Literature on Collapse

The nature and speed of collapse of complex societies has been studied and discussed by historians, sociologists and economists. In his book, The Collapse of Complex Societies, Joseph Tainter argued that the collapse of complex societies is swift unless there are neighboring societies to deliberately slow it, such as by absorbing parts of the collapsing society. In the case of the United States, there was no neighboring state to lessen the decline. Quite the opposite, Canada’s actions in neutralizing industrial activity in the area of the former US facilitated its collapse.

Tainter and other writers, such as Jared Diamond in his book, Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed, discuss many factors that lead to collapse of societies. Tainter's view was that while societal collapses may have apparent direct causes such as invasions, crop failures, disease or environmental degradation, the fundamental cause is an economic one, that societies evolve naturally to increasing complexity as a way of addressing problems that confront them, and collapse occurs when the return on further investment in complexity starts to decline (so that they no longer invest in the added complexity required to address new problems).

Diamond identified five sets of factors that contribute to collapse. These sets are environmental damage, climate change, hostile neighbors, trade problems, and the response to the preceding four sets. Diamond identified human population size relative to the carrying capacity of the environment as a fundamental factor affecting all environmental problems.

Tainter’s and Diamond’s books are descriptive, not prescriptive (normative, goal-seeking, value-driven). They describe and categorize collapses of societies, and they identify factors associated with societal collapse, but they do not prescribe programs or policies for dealing with the problem.

It is interesting to note that, although both these and most other writers on collapse and related topics such as quality of human life and the environment acknowledge that large human population size is a major factor in these issues, very few writers include the word “overpopulation” in book indices, and many are loath to use the term at all. As a whole, human society does not wish to discuss the fact that it is large human numbers and industrial activity that is the root cause of social and ecological crises of massive human misery and destruction of the biosphere. As Walt Kelly’s Pogo once observed, “We have met the enemy, and it is us.”

It is often remarked that the first step in solving a social or personal problem is to admit that the problem exists. In view of society’s widespread denial of human overpopulation as the principal source of its social and environmental problems, its unwillingness to discuss overpopulation, and its refusal to address overpopulation, it is to be expected that the resolution of these problems would be messy. Not evolutionary and peaceful, such as a managed and smooth demographic transition, but revolutionary and violent, like species extinction, ecological collapse and war.

Although the United States incurred substantial damage in the war, it was not completely annihilated, as Russia had initially claimed. After the war, at least some portions of it, such as states that incurred relatively little damage, could have made an organized effort to rebuild. Although such attempts to rebuild occurred in many parts of the world, this did not happen in the US. In many parts of the world, the societal collapse that followed the war was fast and devastating, as in the United States. In others, however, the collapse was more gradual, and not nearly as devastating. In view of these facts, in considering the collapse of the United States, three salient issues, or questions, arose: why were no preparations made by the US government to survive nuclear war; why, after the war occurred and there were some places that could have attempted to rebuild, were no serious organized attempts made; and why was the collapse so spectacularly fast and complete. These were the issues that the Minister of Defence asked Joel and his team to analyze.

Tainter’s and Diamond’s frameworks are interesting taxonomies of societal collapses, and they may provide a measure of insight into why global nuclear war occurred and why certain countries fared better or worse than others in its aftermath. Those frameworks are of greater value, however, in understanding the general nature of societal collapse, rather than for understanding or explaining a particular instance. To understand the nature of the US response to global war – its lack of preparation beforehand, its lack of effort to rebuild afterward, and its spectacular collapse – it is more helpful to analyze these issues relative to specific features of US society and the war.

Joel’s team compared the nature of response and outcome of a number of countries to the war, and identified what it believed to be causal factors related to the response and outcome. While their complete analysis described, analyzed and explained the response of a number of countries to the war, the complete analysis will not be described, discussed or summarized here. All that is presented here is a brief summary of a portion of the appendix as it relates to the United States.

State of the Former United States One Year after the War

Joel’s team conducted its analysis about a year after the war occurred. Here follows a summary of the state of the former United States at that time.

By about a year after the war, the collapse of the United States was largely complete. Shortly after the war, when the national and state governments did not respond to reassert control, local warlords arose. The domains of the warlords were not very large for several reasons, including the high level of chaos and violence, the lack of vehicle fuel, and general level of hostility and mistrust throughout the country.

The country quickly devolved into a patchwork of warring domains. These domains were defined by geographic and ethnographic factors. Basically, they resembled the First Nations peoples, or Indian tribes, that inhabited North America in pre-Colombian times. For discussion, these domains will be referred to as New Nations.

With the low level of energy and other resources available to support organizational complexity following the war, the level of complexity of the New Nations was low. A nation is a large group of people united by common descent, history, culture, or language, inhabiting a particular territory. The culture of a nation, people or other group is their customs, arts, social institutions, and achievements. The determinants of culture are many, including: political and economic philosophy, social structure / organization, values, attitudes, beliefs, religion, customs, rituals, manners, ceremonies, livelihood, cuisine, diet, housing, dress, education, knowledge, technology, skills, ethics, morality, literature, folklore, recreation, dance, art, architecture, style, vision, interests and vested interests.

While many of the nations of the modern world prior to the war were internally quite heterogeneous (diverse), the New Nations were internally quite homogeneous. They were quite distinct with respect to geographic location, language, race and culture. A principal factor driving the homogeneity was internal security. Violence was so extreme that a group had little chance of surviving if it was not highly cohesive. Its members had to be clearly recognizable, uniquely different from members of other groups, and united by strong common bonds – common culture and interests. Shibboleths were once again an important factor in survival.

As Tainter observed, the support of complexity requires investment of energy and other resources. Since energy and resources were so limited after the war, the surviving groups had very low complexity. Since trade had ceased, each New Nation had to be self-sufficient. It had to obtain all of its energy and other resources from its own domain. To be able to do this required that the domain be relatively large. For security reasons, it was necessary for the communities of the New Nations to be small and compact, and occupying a geographic area (domain) occupied by no other groups. Each New Nation exercised exclusive control over a distinct ecoregion, shared with no other Nation. The typical New Nation was a relatively small group having control of a large area.

When the situation had stabilized, the geographic and ethnographic dispersion of people over the interior of the continent resembled very much that of the indigenous peoples in pre-Colombian times – small tribes, each ethnographically distinct, with bands scattered over large but ecologically homogeneous areas.

Factors Affecting Response to and Outcome of Nuclear War

The lack of preparation of the US for the postwar situation, its lack of effort to rebuild after the war occurred, and its rapid collapse, can be associated with a number of features of US society and the war. These features include the following.

1. Level and nature of damage from the war, and wherewithal to rebuild (industrial-grade energy; mineral resources; equipment and supplies; skills appropriate to the new situation; state of the environment (depletion of resources by former US; uselessness (high entropy) of the postwar remains))

2. Fragility of modern society (industrial energy system; petroleum-based transportation system; complexity; massive integration; global interdependence; industrial food production and distribution system; industrial energy system)

3. Extreme overpopulation (with so many desperate survivors focused on basic survival, little attention could be focused on rebuilding)

4. Culture of violence; widespread availability of guns and ammunition; history of genocide

5. Cultural fragmentation caused by mass immigration from alien cultures

6. The existence of alternatives that were more attractive than rebuilding, even if it could be done (easier to migrate to Canada or Mexico than to rebuild; easier to wait for construction of coastal cities (if can hold out))

7. Cultural features antipathetic to cooperation and rebuilding (rugged / radical individualism; history of genocide; extreme freedom; lack of discipline and social consciousness; competition; ethnic fragmentation; low level of socialism; radical environmentalism; anarcho-primitivism)

8. Belief in a bleak future (the widespread belief that collapse is nonrecoverable following nuclear war); popular culture; religion / eschatology; fatalism; the influence of MAD; lack of planning and preparation (both an explanatory factor and an output)

9. Broken spirit; low quality of life; destroyed environment; mass species extinction; global warming; unhappiness; hopelessness; despair; apathy; lack of confidence; much pessimism; little optimism; status as a defeated country

10. Lack of vision of a desirable future; rejection of the former system; lack of purpose; lack of goals; lack of motivation; lack of imagination

11. The socio-economic system in place prior to the war (growth-based economics and capitalism, not steady-state economics or eco-economics)

12. Desire for the future to be based on a different socio-economic system than the previous one (capitalism)

Discussion

Some commentary follows on each of the preceding factors. The factors are interrelated and so discussion for a particular factor may also relate to another one.

Level and nature of war damage, and wherewithal to rebuild

A major factor affecting the US response to the war was the level of destruction it suffered. Most of its cities of population over one million had been destroyed. Its central government was destroyed and many state governments were destroyed. Its two national electric power grids were destroyed. Its petroleum industry was destroyed. Its integrated economy was destroyed. Its food production and distribution system was destroyed.

At this level of damage, it was clear that no national effort to rebuild would occur. All that was possible under these circumstances was for some cities to recover, and perhaps some states.

In addition to the level of damage, the nature of the damage also had a significant effect on the US situation. There are many types of nuclear attacks, including counterforce attacks, countervalue attacks, attacks against population and attacks against industry. The type of attack used depends on the goals of the attacker. The type of attack that had been directed against the United States was basically an attack against industrial production capacity, with a focus on sources of industrial energy. Population had not been targeted, but was affected to the extent that it was distributed around industrial targets. Given the nature of the attack, the war left the United States with a large surviving population and relatively little industrial capacity and energy to support it.

Fragility

The US industrial system collapsed after the war for two main reasons: (1) physical damage to the system; and (2) lack of energy and supplies to keep it running (since the national electric grid and transportation system were destroyed, and imports ceased).

The US economy was very complex and very highly integrated. The government had made no effort to distribute manufacturing. Following the war, the US industrial engine came to an immediate halt.

Even if the war had destroyed many fewer cities, the economic system, being so tightly integrated and interdependent, would have collapsed. The economy depended on many inputs from around the world. No state and no city in the United States was self-sufficient.

Since the US no longer had inputs from trade, the system would have been in serious difficulty even if it had received little damage. There was no point to trying to rebuild the former system, dependent as it was on global trade. The most that could be aimed for was to adapt the remains of the former system to the new situation, or to start basically from scratch with a much less complex system.

The former system was very fragile at two levels. First, even if the system had not been damaged at all, its operation and maintenance required inputs from around the world. Second, the system was constructed from components manufactured around the world. Without imports, it was not possible to obtain the spare parts required to repair damage caused to the system by the war and, given the war damage, it was not feasible to produce them in the United States.

Overpopulation

Prior to the war, the US had a large population, about 335 million people. The country was able to support this large population because of the high productivity of its industrial-agriculture system.

Immediately after the war, perhaps 200 million people remained. The war annihilated the country’s food production and distribution system. Even in places that had not been hit by nuclear weapons, there was at most about a 30-day supply of food available.

Given the severe damage to the national food production and distribution system, it was not feasible to restore it. There were two principal reasons why this was not done. First, the systems came to an immediate halt. The available food was that in homes, grocery stores and warehouses, and no more was being produced. People were soon out of food. Violence erupted on a massive scale, to the point where it was not possible to make an organized effort to restore the system. Second, the most that was feasible was to restore industrial agriculture in areas that were not attacked. Industrial agriculture requires many inputs from the industrial system, including fuel for farm vehicles, electric power for farm and food-processing equipment, fuel for transport vehicles, seed, fertilizer, herbicides, insecticides, irrigation and animal feed. The industrial system no longer produced any of these things. The country would have to return to a pre-industrial level of agriculture.

The population was now so great, however, that it could not possibly be supported by primitive agriculture. Modern agricultural practices had destroyed much of the topsoil and much of the organic content of what remained. Without fertilizer, little would grow. The land was no longer suitable for pre-industrial agriculture. Natural habitat of wildlife had been destroyed in vast sections of the country, such as the Great Plains, so hunting and gathering could support few people.

The result of the war was that there were about perhaps 200 million survivors with about a 30-day food supply and no means of restoring industrial agriculture to support themselves. Basically, the US would return to pre-industrial agriculture and hunter-gathering for its food. Having destroyed most of its natural habitat, using those technologies the country could support at most a few million people.

Culture of violence

The US civilian population possessed massive numbers of guns and ammunition. In Canada, the primary purpose of guns was for killing animals; in the United States, the primary purpose of guns was for killing human beings. Each year, US citizens purchased about 12 billion rounds of ammunition. Mass shootings became a common occurrence. People became habituated to violence, inured to constant killings. The liberal movement condoned looting to the point where looting became a standard and expected response to social problems by the masses.

Americans had watched countless post-apocalyptic movies, for decades, and the story line was usually action-packed violence motivated by competition for scarce resources. The culture of violence that had been nurtured by movies, video games and paintball games was primed for violent conflict in the wake of war, not for cooperation and reconstruction. Americans fully believed in a post-war society comprised of lone gunmen, road warriors and warlords.

Although the US government was not prepared to carry on after nuclear war, its citizens were. They were armed to the teeth with guns and ammunition. Killing guns – pistols and semiautomatic rifles. With twelve billion rounds of ammunition used each year, they had plenty of practice. When war came, the American citizens were ready for it, and the survivors set upon each other. Fiction became reality and, in the wake of the war, the nation exploded in violence. Since individual families were very vulnerable, they assembled into small groups, and then into larger groups. Group size became the major determinant of survival. Local warlords arose. As petroleum and food ran out, within a month of the war, mass slaughter of competing groups occurred.

US society had a history of genocide. It took the lands that it occupied from the former occupants – the First Nations peoples – by force. In the United States, the government launched a program of exterminating the bison, on which the plains Indians were dependent for their sustenance. The founding US culture was that if you wanted another people’s land, you took it from them.

When the war destroyed US governmental structure, no political power remained to enforce the land titles, and they were no longer of any value.

It was impossible to prepare for the mayhem that followed. Anyone who had prepared by stockpiling became a target, and his stocks were taken from him.

Cultural fragmentation from mass immigration

For much of the Twentieth Century, immigration to the United States was designed to maintain the existing racial-ethnic composition of the US population. This was accomplished by means of the National Origins Formula, which had been established in the 1920s to preserve American homogeneity by promoting immigration from Northwestern Europe. The Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965 abolished the National Origins Formula and removed de facto discrimination against Southern and Eastern Europeans, Asians, as well as other non-Northwestern European ethnic groups from American immigration policy. The act included a provision exempting immediate relatives of US citizens from numerical restrictions and set a numerical limit on immigration from the Western Hemisphere. (See the Wikipedia article on the Immigration Act of 1965 for details.)

Some politicians, such as Secretary of State Dean Rusk and Senator Ted Kennedy, asserted that the bill would not affect the US demographic mix. (During debate on the Senate floor, Senator Ted Kennedy, speaking of the effects of the Act, said, "our cities will not be flooded with a million immigrants annually. ... Secondly, the ethnic mix of this country will not be upset.") Other politicians, notably Senator Sam Ervin, argued that the Act would have a very substantial effect on changing it. The act greatly increased the total number of immigrants as well as the share of immigrants from Asia, Africa and the Caribbean. Family reunification under the law greatly increased the total number of immigrants, including Europeans, admitted to the US. In opening entry to the US to immigrants other than Northwestern European and Germanic groups, the Act significantly changed the racial-ethnic composition of immigrants to the US, and eventually substantially changed the racial-ethnic composition of the United States.

Intense lobbying for passage of the Act was conducted by groups seeking to weaken the stranglehold of White Anglo-Saxon Protestants (WASPs) on US politics and culture. These groups included the Anti-Defamation League of B’nai B’rith, the Catholic Church and the Civil Rights Movement. The large influx of non-WASPs dramatically changed the religious landscape of the US. By the early 21st century, there were 3.5 million Muslims, 4 million Buddhists, 2 million Hindus and 700,000 Sikhs in the US, many of whom were foreign-born. The Catholic Church benefitted from a huge surge of Catholic immigrants from Latin America and the Philippines. By 2007, 46 percent of Catholics were foreign-born. The US Catholic population grew from 46 million in 1965, the year Act was passed, to 68 million in 2016.

Passage of the Act dramatically increased US population. In 1965, the US population was 194 million people. In 2020 the population had increased to 330 million, almost totally because of immigration (immigrants and progeny). The Act also dramatically changed the racial composition of the country. In 1965, the percentage white was 89 percent; in 2020 it was 62 percent. Both of these effects – the massive population growth and the massive change in the racial composition – would have a tremendous effect on the US response to the war.

In the decades that followed passage of the Act in 1965, US population policy was to encourage mass immigration from alien cultures. At the time of passage of the Act, it was strongly asserted that the Act would not change the demographic mix of the country, and that it would not flood the country with immigrants. Both claims were blatantly false. The purpose of the Act was indeed to flood the country with immigrants from alien cultures.

A primary result of the Act was economic growth enabled through population growth. The Act enabled decade after decade of mass immigration, no matter how it affected US culture, US quality of life, or the environment.

The population growth rate was truly massive – about one percent per year – on the order of that of a third-world country with an extremely high birth rate.

The mass migration had a devastating effect on the environment, both in the United States and globally. On average, each immigrant to the United States caused the destruction of one acre of natural land, for construction of homes, roads, parking lots, stores, schools, hospitals, offices, factories, farms and other infrastructure. The global environmental impact of immigration to the United States from poor countries was severe, since, to achieve the US standard of living, the new immigrants consume many times the amount of industrial energy in the United States that they had used in their home countries. The production and use of industrial energy caused great damage and destruction to the environment and natural ecosystems.

While many of the immigrants represented the best of their cultures, some of those cultures posed a significant threat to traditional American culture. The immigration was no longer from the culture of America’s founders or of the generations that had made it a powerful nation. It was from alien cultures and failed societies. Many of the new arrivals shared no strong cultural bond with traditional American culture, which was basically northern European. They came to America not because they related to American culture, but to escape poverty in their former homelands. They had been invited to come to America not to strengthen its traditional and dominant culture, but simply to be used as fodder for its economic engine, both as producers and consumers.

As the proportion of the population represented by alien cultures began to swamp the traditional American culture, movements to destroy that culture arose. The result was a cultural hodge-podge with no dominant ethnic identity. America became a fractionated assembly of competitors from different cultures and ethnic groups. Their goal was not to nurture American culture – that was not their culture. America lost its unity and civility. The proportion of people without meaningful work increased, as factories manned by robots and people doing robot-like work produced more and more of the nation’s economic output.

Had the immigration been at low levels, the effect of the immigration on the dominant culture would have been far less. Through assimilation, the culture of the immigrants and their children would have become traditional American culture. The problem was that the immigration was on such a massive scale – millions of immigrants each year – that there was no opportunity to assimilate the migrants into traditional American culture.

As a result, many of the migrants retained their ethnic identities. The mass immigration swamped traditional American culture. Without assimilation, the dominant culture of the nation was replaced by a number of competing subcultures. When the dominant culture of a country falls below 80-90 percent, the phenomenon of tyranny of the minority sets in. Ethnic competition and strife increase substantially, and much effort is expended addressing social unrest.

In 1960, before mass immigration began, the percentage white population of the US was 89 percent. Mass immigration, mostly of nonwhite races, began shortly after passage of the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965. From that time on, the percentage white fell dramatically: 88% in 1970; 83% in 1980; 80% in 1990; 75% in 2000; 72% in 2010; 62% in 2020 (data from US Census Bureau). At about 1990, the percentage white population of the United States fell below 80 percent. With no strongly dominant race, the country was riven with racial strife. After the war, the strife exploded. The warring factions that formed were defined by dominant cultural features, including race, language, religion, national origin and ethnicity.

While many immigrants to the US were attracted to its high level of material wealth, many of them were not able to compete successfully in the US economy. Many more were repelled by some of the very features of US society that had helped make it become materially successful, including competition, materialism, lack of spirituality, consumerism, capitalism, focus on the short term, secularism, relative (consequential) morality and ethics, wastefulness, profligacy, efficiency, lack of respect for nature, focus on profit, lack of respect for intellectual achievement, lack of respect for tradition, lack of respect for alternative cultures, hedonism, environmental destruction, scorn for failure, pollution, focus on work, long commute times, intensity, inequality in income and wealth, high cost of living, job insecurity, low social safety net, rootlessness, social mobility, physical mobility, weak family ties, callousness, ethnocentricity, chauvinism, militancy, genocide of native peoples and racism. They were accepting of American bounty but critical of many of the features that had made America materially successful.

While disenchanted groups criticized American culture from every point of view, the most vehement attacks related to race and racism. America’s founders were white and, for two hundred years, a large proportion of the population was white. For a long time, the white race fared better than many other races. Long before the US was founded as a nation, it had adopted race-based slavery as a major feature of its socio-economic system. After the nation abolished slavery, it continued policies and practices of apartheid, segregation and discrimination for another century. The dominant race – the white race – had little or no respect for other races, their cultures, capabilities or accomplishments, except as workers or entertainers. Racial discrimination was a significant feature of the US social and economic system until about the middle of the Twentieth Century.

A large proportion of recent immigrants were of nonwhite races. While immigrants could assimilate in many ways, such as language, religion, dress, and behavior, they could not change their race. Politicians and social activists focused, therefore, on race as the primary social characteristic responsible for the less-fortunate’s circumstance – not the less-fortunate’s race, but on racism by the nation’s principal race.

Citing racism as the reason for social condition of disaffected classes has a number of advantages for the social activist. First, in America, with a white plurality, only whites can be racist. If racism is the reason for misfortune, then the less-fortunate non-white cannot possibly be to blame. Second, if white racism is the reason for the non-whites’ less-fortunate situation, then, since whites cannot change their race, they will be forever suspect of racism and liable to a charge of racism. Third, since the less-fortunate cannot change his race, he has a permanent basis for a grievance. Fourth, racism may be impossible to prove or disprove. Liberal American politicians cringed at being charged with racism, and went to extreme lengths to avoid it, such as passage of much affirmative-action and reverse-discrimination legislation. These laws, which were blatantly racist, caused much resentment in America’s dominant culture.

Eventually, emboldened by their massive numbers, unable to assimilate, unable to compete successfully in American culture, the underprivileged, including both the Negro race that had been the subject of race-based slavery and the other races that immigrated to the US later, turned on it with a vengeance. Many came to despise the hand that fed them. They attacked the very culture that had made America great and that had accepted them in massive numbers when they asked to join. America was no longer a unified country, but a collection of ethnically distinct groups that distrusted each other. It had swamped itself with immigrants, with alien ethnic groups that competed rather than cooperated. When war came, the groups fell on each other.

Selection of easy alternatives

While some people immigrated to the US to take advantage of its tremendous opportunities, resources and freedom, and had special talents to offer, many came to escape poverty and oppression in their former homelands, and had little or nothing to offer. In the face of tyranny or other social problem, people have essentially three choices: tolerate it, fight it, or flee from it. For many of the immigrants to the US, the easier way out was to flee rather than fight. Regrettably, many escaped poverty and oppression in their home countries only to face contempt, discrimination and exploitation in their new country. Since this treatment was based heavily on race, neither they nor their descendants could ever escape it. As the boxing champion Joe Louis once observed, you can run but you can’t hide – you can try to escape what you fear most, but ultimately you must face it.

Most of America’s recent immigrants were not from countries or cultures that had taken a stand against adversity, overcome challenges, defeated tyrants, or built nations. Faced with adversity, they chose to flee rather than to fight. When nuclear war came to the United States, the response of the new American culture of recent immigrants was to flee, not to fight. They did not attempt to regroup, organize, and rebuild, since that was not their culture. They came to America to take advantage of the economic engine that others had built, not to build a new one of their own. Many of the recent arrivals had no roots in the US. While most would have been willing to take a stand to defend their own culture, they were unwilling to do so for the culture of their adopted country.

Through immigration, the US had expanded its population many times beyond the capacity of the natural environment to accommodate. Now, to accommodate the natural environment, that population would shrink to less than one percent of its former size.

In retrospect, most of the immigrants to the United States had made a terrible choice: ninety-nine percent of them or their progeny would perish. If a society chooses the path of overpopulation, it chooses destruction and death.

The desire to flee rather than fight was, of course, not restricted to recent immigrants. Many others, even those with roots in the US and its traditional culture, reasoned that, facing extreme violence and a daunting task of reconstruction where they lived, the rational choice was to relocate to undamaged locations.

Cultural features antipathetic to cooperation and rebuilding

America’s early history is steeped in a tradition of a dauntless rugged individual carving a home out of a wilderness, rebelling from British control, fighting Indians. These traits were very useful in wresting the land from its former occupants and colonizers. After the country had become a strong industrial society, these traits were still useful, particularly for entrepreneurs, but other talents and skills were also necessary, such as organizational skills, discipline, and technology.

America became a powerful nation using growth-based economics and laissez-faire capitalism as the basis for its socio-economic system. It had access to all of the basic requirements for greatness, including strong leaders with grand vision, a dynamic population, creativeness and inventiveness, a high level of freedom, a large territory, vast natural resources and energy. Through mass immigration, it attracted many of the highest performing of the world’s people. It gave free reign to its people to ruthlessly and violently displace the former occupants of the country, and to robber-baron industrialists to build massive infrastructure and industry. It used war, genocide, slavery, wage-slavery and exploitation of nature as it saw fit to promote its development and achieve its goals.

It promoted exploitation of nature to the extreme of extinction and ecological collapse. It promoted the concept of the country’s manifest destiny to possess and control the land from the Atlantic to the Pacific Oceans. In its early days, before the availability of industrial-scale energy from hydropower and fossil fuels, it used slavery to power plantation agriculture in the South. Indigenous peoples had proved to make poor slaves, and the country imported large numbers of Negro slaves from Africa. As the Industrial Revolution proceeded, technology and industrial energy gradually reduced the economic advantage of slavery as the means of providing labor. For labor for its growing manufacturing sector, the country proceeded to make wage-slaves out of its own citizens. The country was based on representative democracy. Unfortunately for the ordinary citizen, the system became one in which the representatives promoted the welfare of the wealthy few over that of the non-wealthy many. While the quality of life was good for the early immigrants to America, in the long run, as the country filled with people, it became no better than that of their home countries.

America invested much of its great wealth in promoting faster economic growth. In its early days it invested relatively little in social welfare programs, motivating its people to work hard, compete, save and build, in the knowledge that the government would do little to help the less fortunate. It privatized many economic functions that were public goods in other countries, such as utilities, education and health care.

Some of the characteristics that helped America to develop into a powerful nation proved to facilitate its demise after the war. Because of mass immigration from diverse cultures, the country was culturally fragmented. The socio-economic system was laissez-faire capitalism, not socialism, so the basic culture was oriented to competition rather than cooperation. The culture of exploitation of the population and nature by the system generated much resentment, anger, hatred and rage. This opposition to the system was expressed most strongly and eloquently in the writings of the environmental movement, especially those of radical environmentalism, deep ecology, social ecology and anarcho-primitivism, including the works of Christopher Manes, John Zerzan, Murray Bookchin, Derrick Jensen and many others.

The environmental movements had been viewed by capitalists as impediments to economic efficiency and growth. They were. As capitalism caused misery for more people and more damage to the biosphere, the radical environmental movements became more motivated, stronger and more vocal. Through the industrial activity and growth that the economic system promoted, it was sowing the seeds of its own destruction.

As long as the global industrial system continued to function, proponents of the environmental movement did not stand a chance to implement their concepts to address the human and ecological crises, such as rewilding. With the collapse of the system in the United States, they finally had a chance. These people were passionate about their goals, whereas the average American citizen was not at all passionate about the system that had caused human misery on a grand scale, massive destruction to the biosphere, extreme pollution of the environment, global warming and mass species extinction. When collapse happened, a number of the anarcho-primitivists, deep ecologists and rewilders provided inspiration, guidance and leadership to the survivors, to help establish a new system that would work better for both man and nature.

Belief in a bleak future

Because of the US government’s long-term policy of mass immigration from diverse cultures, the US population was no longer a unified people, but a fragmented collection of peoples that had no collective vision of the future. Lacking a collective, coherent, and desirable national vision for the future, the nation made no plans or preparations for the future. It had no vision of the United States rebuilding after nuclear war or other catastrophe, such as ecological collapse, and so such a future did not come to pass.

Their fragmented, incoherent and dismal vision of the future was reflected in their apocalyptic movies of desolation, despair, poverty, violence, chaos and warlords – of permanent ruin, not of rebuilding. Many Americans truly believed in that future. Russia’s vision was to take over the world, no matter how much physical damage it endured. Canada’s vision was to survive and rebuild, if it could, whatever disaster might occur. The US had no vision of life after the war, unless it came through it unscathed. And that did not happen.

Cultural fragmentation and popular culture were not the only reasons why many people in US society believed in an unhappy future. Another prominent reason was religion. The Abrahamic religions – Judaism, Christianity and Islam – all promoted the concept that mankind was to take dominion over nature and use it for mankind’s purposes. With this concept ingrained deeply, the arguments and pleas of environmentalists to respect and protect nature fell on deaf ears. No one, it seemed, was willing to sacrifice any human life, whether actual or in the future, for nature. Because of the Biblical admonition to exploit nature, to do so would imperil one’s own soul.

Another aspect of religion that promoted belief in an unhappy future were the eschatologies (end-times theologies) of these religions. They all predicted a catastrophic end for humanity. Collapse was assured by the holy books, so that, in the long run, there was not anything that could be done about it. Many followers believed in the concept of predestination, and had a fatalistic view of the future.

The influence of MAD

The apocalyptic vision of life after nuclear war was nurtured by the US government, the US military, and by anti-war activists. For many years, when the United States and the former Soviet Union were the only two major nuclear powers, the doctrine of military strategy employed by the United States to avoid nuclear war was the concept of Mutual Assured Destruction, or MAD – the argument that if nuclear war were to occur, the results would be so catastrophic to both sides that neither side would initiate it. A key requirement for MAD is the belief that nuclear war is not survivable, for, if either side believed it to be survivable, it might be motivated to initiate it. The US fallout-shelter program of the 1950s was objected to by some on the basis that it implied that nuclear war was in fact survivable. Years later, missile defense was objected to for the same reason.

Over time, for a number of reasons, it became clear that, although MAD may lessen the likelihood of nuclear war, it was insufficient to prevent it. [See the Wikipedia article on MAD for discussion.] For a number of years, nuclear disarmament had occurred, and the number of nuclear weapons deployed by the United States and the Soviet Union was substantially reduced. It was attempted to limit proliferation of nuclear weapons to other countries. This effort succeeded for a while, but eventually failed. New countries acquired nuclear weapons and effective delivery systems, such as cruise missiles.

While nuclear proliferation was increasing, the quality of human life and the biosphere continued to decline. Human population and industrial activity continued to rise, additional billions of human beings were born into lives of poverty, damage to the biosphere continued, global warming increased, and mass species extinction continued.

With the quality of human life and the biosphere declining and the proliferation of nuclear weapons increasing, it was obvious that the likelihood of occurrence of nuclear war was increasing. While it became more and more evident that the world was headed for nuclear war, many people believed that, even if the major nuclear powers destroyed themselves, many other countries could survive, particularly if they prepared. A number of countries, including Switzerland, Sweden, Finland and Austria, constructed fallout shelters to protect large portions of their populations.

In the United States, a nuclear power, the concept persisted that nuclear war would destroy modern civilization and cause life to be miserable for the survivors, at least for those in the US. Leaders in every sector of society proclaimed this viewpoint. Cinematic films invariably represented post-nuclear-war life as unbearable. Many anti-war activists promoted this view, in the conviction that if everyone viewed the result of nuclear war as unbearable, then it would be unlikely to happen. Some objected even to discussion of post-war preparations on the ground that any effort to make nuclear war seem more survivable made it more likely to happen. To a degree, at times, the situation was reminiscent of Isaac Asimov’s Foundation, in which mere discussion of societal collapse was considered tantamount to treason.

To discuss preparations for waging nuclear war was accepted as fine by many people, since it was tacitly assumed that, with such preparations, the US would be able to avoid war or, if it happened, to avoid destruction. Such discussion was in fact encouraged by the government since it provided the government and the military with justification and support for maintenance of a massive military establishment. To discuss preparations for reconstruction in the wake of war, however, was quite a different matter. Such discussion implied that the government could not protect the citizens from wartime destruction. This was defeatist talk, and it was not acceptable. The country produced missiles, planes, bombs and UAVs, not fallout shelters. And certainly not post-nuclear-war disaster recovery plans.

In American society, many people believed that if the US suffered destruction in nuclear war, it would likely never recover. With the belief that recovery is not likely, it is reasonable not to make preparations to recover. Many other countries, such as Canada, did not feel this way about their own prospects. They prepared, and they survived. The view that recovery was possible and could be enhanced by preparation was particularly prevalent in non-nuclear powers and non-aligned countries, which had reason to believe that they would not be targeted.

Reality follows belief

In summary, the common belief in the US was that nuclear war was not survivable, in the sense of the survival of modern US civilization. As a result, no preparations were made to survive it. When the war happened, reality followed belief.

On the other hand, Russia, Canada, and a number of other countries believed that they could survive nuclear war and they made preparations to survive it. When it occurred, some of them did survive.

Broken spirit

The US simply collapsed. In the words of T. S. Eliot, “Not with a bang but a whimper.” In no part of it was there a concerted effort to regroup and rebuild. There was no longer any glue holding US society together. It had no desire to survive nuclear war, no plans to survive nuclear war, and it did not survive nuclear war. It had no vision of itself in a post-nuclear-war context. It had no vision of rebuilding America. And why should it? The perpetual-growth capitalist system had brought incredible misery to billions of people and had destroyed much of the Earth’s biosphere. That system was a planet-destroying one that would not be missed. Who would want to rebuild such a system? America had been a great civilization at one time, but, in the end, it was a house of cards, a corrupt shell game that brought fabulous wealth to very few at the cost of great suffering to many and inestimable destruction to nature.

The US cultural fabric, once so strong, had been rotted by the greed of capitalism, by interest and rents, and by mass immigration from alien cultures. The former vision of America as the land of opportunity and the chance for a better life had gradually morphed into a reality of an out-of-control capitalist system consuming its citizens and nature alike. After the war occurred, there was no longer a collective raison d’être, no motivation for people to pick up the pieces and carry on. The American system had not served man or nature well. Few people had any desire to rebuild it.

The spirit that had made America great and powerful and kept it going for so long was now dead, as dead as the spirits of the American Indian tribes that it had broken a century and a half ago. The survivors, alienated from America’s new culture and from each, turned on each other. In the end, the United States was destroyed by its own citizens, killing each other in an orgy of destruction. As Ariel Durant once observed, “A great civilization is not conquered from without until it has destroyed itself from within.”

All that the US survivors saw in the destruction caused by nuclear war was suffering, agony and death. The loss of economic income and wealth. They could not and did not see a massive population reduction as a tremendous opportunity to build a society with a high quality of life for human beings in a species-rich biosphere. They saw only a glass that was half-empty, not one that was half-full.

Lack of vision

With the quality of human life deteriorating, the number of people living in misery increasing, and the biosphere in peril, it is understandable that many people believed that the future would not be good. With that belief, it was difficult to adopt a vision of a desirable future. Such a vision did not match reality. Despite much effort, it appeared to be impossible to avoid an unhappy future, whether continuation of the current destructive and oppressive system or catastrophic collapse.

For many people, continuation of the present system, no matter how bad it was, seemed preferable to collapse, which would mean death for much of the population. Many people wanted to change the current system, but felt powerless to do so. The global economic-industrial system was simply too strong. It fiercely resisted change. It seemed that the only way that substantial change would occur would be through collapse of the system.

Given the situation that the future appeared unpleasant and the perception that it could not be changed, many people adopted a world-view of hopelessness and despair. Their lives seemed out of control and destined for destruction. Accordingly, they had no purpose other than staying alive from day to day. No long-term goals. No motivation to attempt global change. No one proposed a solution to the global ecological and human-quality-of-life crises.

For many years, governments had promoted the message that individual actions such as recycling and conservation would solve the environmental crisis. The argument that conservation at the individual level would change things, when governments were actively promoting policies of increased economic growth and increases in standards of living that would cause even more damage to the environment, was eventually recognized as a cynical and cruel deception.

The socio-economic system in place prior to the war

The socio-economic system in place in the US prior to the war was growth-based economics, not steady-state economics. US economic policy and US population policy were based on exponential growth, and in any physical system, exponential growth always ends. Under these policies, the only possible futures are either termination of the policies or collapse. Unless these policies are ended, then the eventual result is collapse. The collapse may be partial, such as in the case of the Great Depression of the 1930s or the Recession of 2008.

Economic growth from population growth

Combining the best elements of mankind’s culture with the dynamism, freedom and resources of a new land, America had forged a great and powerful nation and culture. In its early years, it took advantage of exponential growth, both from immigration and the high birth rates of immigrants. All dynamic systems of any size undergo exponential growth for a time. At some point, however, they must abandon the policy of exponential growth or face certain collapse.

American business became addicted to growth. The easiest way to sustain economic growth is through population growth, and the country adopted a population policy of substantial population growth. The problem was that the US could not control the exponential growth. It could never turn it off. At one point, about 1972, its birth rate had declined to replacement level. Since it was no longer achieving population growth through births, it would achieve it through immigration. Through its policy of indiscriminate mass immigration, it flooded the nation with millions of immigrants, many of whom served as laborers and consumers but contributed nothing to the nation’s unique intellectual and creative culture. Worse, they diluted and fractionated that culture, the culture that had made it a great nation. The country’s economic and population policies, based on continued exponential growth and mass immigration from alien cultures, doomed it to collapse in the long term.

Destructive processes of capitalism: interest and rents

As things turned out, the collapse of the US was not a direct result of economic and population policies, but of nuclear war. Those policies were key factors, however, in affecting why the US did not prepare for the aftermath of nuclear war and did not make significant effort to recover from it, and why the collapse was so rapid and complete.

A major feature of the US system of capitalism is the transfer of income and wealth to property owners from nonowners. This is accomplished by allowing for the charging of interest and rents on private property. If interest rates and rents are low, then the practice can benefit both borrower and lender. At high rates, with no limits on the charges, the practice can result in massive transfer of income and property from the less wealthy to the wealthy, resulting in financial ruin for the borrowers and an extremely skewed distribution of income and wealth. In extreme situations, the widespread financial ruin and extreme inequality in income and wealth causes much human misery.

In recent times in the US, the practice of charging interest and rents in fact reached such a state. Personal debt increased substantially and interest rates were high, leading to the transfer of large amounts of income and wealth from the borrowers to the lenders via interest charges. Home ownership declined. As ownership of the country shifted from the once-large middle class to the wealthy few, more and more of the nation’s income was unearned income from investments – rents on property and interest on loans – paid for by people from earned income. The proportion of people receiving welfare assistance increased to high levels. It became no longer possible for many people to earn a decent living. In 1950, a typical US worker could earn sufficient income to pay for a house and car, have his spouse at home with the children, educate his children, and live comfortably. In recent years, even with man and wife both working, it was no longer possible for most people to achieve a comfortable life and economic security.

Income and wealth inequality soared, motivating class hatred. Racism increased. Scapegoating increased. The quality of life deteriorated. The income and wealth inequality would not have been a very significant factor but for the fact that the quality of life for the masses became very poor. People were trapped in the industrial system. Large human numbers and global industrialism had caused tremendous damage to the biosphere, caused a mass species extinction, global warming, and human misery on a colossal scale. The country was filled with hopelessness, despair, unhappiness and hate.

Desire for a different socio-economic system in the future

Many Americans held the view that modern industrial civilization was worth saving. After all, they were supported by that civilization. If it perished, they perished. Also, many Americans believed that, should nuclear war occur, it would mean the end of civilization as we know it; they did not have a vision of the US rebuilding after destruction in a nuclear war. Some of these people refused to discuss post-nuclear-war preparations because to do so might increase the likelihood of occurrence of such a war.

To an increasing segment of the US population, there was no point to discussing post-nuclear-war reconstruction for quite another reason. The US socio-economic system had utterly failed them and failed the biosphere. More and more people began to ask, if nuclear war occurred and the present system were destroyed, why would anyone want to resurrect it? To these people, there was no reason to make preparations for the US to survive nuclear war and rebuild.

Some people agonized that if nuclear war occurred, we would lose everything. Lose what? The system that had brought misery to billions of people, mass extinction to species, global warming, and destruction of the biosphere? For both humanity and the biosphere, losing such a system would be not a tragedy, but a blessing. For a person to view it as a tragedy would imply that the person values himself and the current generation of humanity as being worth more than all other species and all other human beings, for all future time.

Some lessons for Canada

The Canadian Minister of Defence had asked Joel to examine the reasons for the preparation, response and outcome of the US because he wanted to relate it to the Canadian situation. He wanted to understand these reasons so that he could take them into account in planning and preparing for future potential disasters.

The US government had deliberately chosen not to prepare for the aftermath of nuclear war. It had chosen not to do so because the alternative of not rebuilding was more attractive to it than the alternative of rebuilding, taking all of the identified factors into account. As things turned out, when war occurred, the national government was in no position to rebuild its former industrial system because of the high level of damage and the lack of resources to do so, not because of a lack of planning or preparation. Some states or localities might have rebuilt, but chose not to do so for the various reasons discussed above.

Like the United States, Canada had adopted many of the same economic and population policies as the United States, such as growth-based economics. In the long term, it would have to abandon those policies or it too would eventually share the same fate as the US, of an impoverished and disaffected middle class. It had not yet, however, reached the point of no return. There were several substantial differences between it and the United States. First, the war damage to Canada was far less than that to the US. Second, it was a country with a population that was still small relative to its very large geographic area – it was a lot “earlier” on the exponential curve. Third, it was more socialist than the US. Its social welfare programs worked well to enhance quality of life, and people were more civil toward each other. Fourth, it still had a national vision for itself in the future, even in the face of disasters. It had a will to survive as a nation, and it had made contingency plans and preparations to respond to disasters and catastrophes. When war came to Canada, the survivors regrouped, picked up the pieces, implemented their survival plan, and rebuilt. They had reason and will to do so, and made preparations to do so. In the US, there was no reason to rebuild a system that destroyed both mankind and nature. There was no collective will to survive as a people, and no preparations were made. The US was very well equipped to wage nuclear war, and it had a desire to win it, but it had no desire to survive if the war turned out badly for it.