Internet website http://www.foundationwebsite.org, updated 23 October 2020. Books and articles on Planetary Management and other topics from Tucson, Arizona. Copyright © 1999-2020 Joseph George Caldwell. All rights reserved.
Short course on Demographic Analysis
The Destiny 2005 Estimation, Forecasting and Analysis System. This system makes population projections and synthetic estimates based on cohort-component population projections. It includes country-by-country population projections under various assumptions about Hubbert's Peak / Hubbert's Curve (e.g., whether the rich countries keep all of the oil for themselves after global oil production starts to decline). The system may be applied to forecast a wide range of demographic-related phenomena, such as HIV/AIDS caseloads and budgets, school enrollments and related requirements (teachers, classrooms, supplies, textbooks), social-service caseloads and budgets, hospital beds, nursing-home facilities, and prison populations. This "international" version is for use with the Microsoft Access 2002 database management system.
Destiny Description of Capabilities (International Version)
Destiny User's Manual (International Version)
Destiny Flyer Front Destiny Flyer Back
Environmental Situation Assessment: Trinidad and Tobago. A few years ago, I was invited to an interview for a contract position to do some environmental work (program planning, monitoring, and evaluation; policy analysis) in Trinidad and Tobago, so I took a couple of days to examine the environmental situation there. It was pretty disheartening to see how much that country has already "overshot" its ability to feed itself from its own rich agricultural resources. During the interview, I showed my analysis to the government official. It was rather evident that he did not like what he saw, and that he did not appreciate my publicizing the fact that his country had already passed the point at which it could support itself from its own food sources (as many other countries have also done). I didn't get the job, but the paper I presented to the official is still interesting reading. The country's population now exceeds its carrying capacity, and when fossil fuels run out, many Trinidadians will die of hunger.
Whatever Happened to Trinidad and Tobago? What is happening to Trinidad and Tobago will soon happen to the rest of the world -- the classic Easter Island Syndrome: unchecked population growth, overshooting the carrying capacity, and devastating ecological collapse. (17 September 1995.)
